9.0 ON BETDAQ AN ‘EASY’ NAP AT CARLISLE: It’s hard to find a nap but there’s Easy Terms on the punter-friendly BETDAQ orange, a 9.0 Daqman cracker for Carlisle.
HAGGAS CAMBRIDGESHIRE PLOTTING LOOKS GOOD: Daqman explains some betting strategies at Beverley and is gearing up for his assault on the Saturday’s big race, the Cambridgeshire, for which he finds William Haggas has a seemingly ‘unfair’ advantage.
It’s a case of William Haggas rules, ok!
I worked on the Cambridgeshire late into the night – got to bed well after Marianne Faithfull – and the more I went into it, the more I thought that Somerville Lodge had a grip on the race.
The stable is nap-handed as I write this morning – Danchai, Fury, Graphic, Nine Realms and Queensberry Rules – and whatever Haggas chooses to run is likely to top my ABC list, such are their prime places in the handicap.
All these years later, I still wished for Haggas’s father-in-law, Lester Piggott, yesterday: he would have carried my nap, Proximate, home at Hamilton (sorry Luke Morris; poor ride).
As the Racing Post says today in its story of Piggott’s partnership with Vincent O’Brien, if you want to see how it’s done, check out the YouTube rides: ‘Roberto Derby’ and ‘Royal Academy Breeders Cup’, which Piggott himself regards as his greatest moment.
Haggas has a runner at each of Beverley and Lingfield today. As we saw with Proximate, when a Newmarket trainer travels North for an ‘easy’ race, it may not be so easy after all, else why is the beast having its sites so lowered?
So what we’ll do is stake for an ‘if lose’ situation on the Haggas pair today: Lady In Blue (2.00 Lingfield) to win first-time blinkered. If she loses we back Our Channel (2.10 Beverley), covering the stake on the loser as well as aiming for our usual target (win 20).
Lady In Blue is a tasty 10.5 at the time of writing (so we have 2.1 points win) and Our Channel is 4.5, which requires 5.7 points to win 20.
But we’ll add 0.6 points to recover the lost 2.1 points on the first selection. What if both horses win? We’ll ‘leave a pound’ for a double on Daq Multiples, in case we – and Willie Haggas – get lucky. That would be a good job of work in 10 minutes or so!
Alex Conran could have hustled every sprint in the good old bad old days of Beverley, because you didn’t need to look at the form or even the names of the horses: you backed the draw blind, such was the bias.
All you needed to do was stand at an angle to the stalls as they lined up in, say a 12-runner race, and make a seemingly fair offer: give me 3-1 and I’ll bet you fifty quid one of those three wins, pointing at the end three stalls. Ok, then, I’ll be even fairer, says our fictional Alex, only 2-1.
Anyone who took him on didn’t realize that those three stalls combined were very long odds on to provide the winner. One year I counted 10 winners out of 11 races from those stalls.
That’s something else that ain’t easy no more, as the man said. In fact, the trade-paper Topdraw has Low (54), Middle (57) and High (53) much of a muchness. It’s in the nature of gambling to hate it when they spoil a good thing in the name of fair play!
In fact, low numbers are usually a help. But there’s already ‘bias’ the Beverley sprint (3.40) today, in that it’s not a handicap so, theoretically the better horses – as recorded in their ratings – should hold sway.
In fact, the problem with the ratings, as ever, is that the handicapper has felt unable to let go of the past performances of a great horse in the race, Borderlescott, even though he’s now 11 years old (the horse not the handicapper, though you wonder sometimes).
Borderlescott, who has retired more times than Piggott did, is still living off his exploits of 2004-9, and has won only once in three years. But it was at Beverley. And it was in a conditions race (Listed actually).
He ran another good (Listed) race on today’s course in August, beaten only a length in the Beverley Bullet, and holds Doc Hay and Excelette on that form.
Rocky Ground is unexposed and some of them need rain (it has dried out to a good-to-firm surface), so my first choice is Tiddliwinks, nearest to Borderlescott in the ratings.
Tiddliwinks is due a win and drops down to this level from Group 1. He has his ground and is lightly raced this season. Trainer bullish.
Even as early as my coffee and cornflakes, the BETDAQ market was punter friendly, with easy trading on this race in an orange list of offers totting up to only 108%. It meant I could back both Borderlescott and Tiddliwinks at around 7.5 (3pts each).
I checked out the 7f-plus handicap (4.10) for some draw bias because of the hairpin Beverley bend but the story is one we’ve seen on other similar tracks.
Yes, a jockey can use a low draw to get an edge but he can also utilise the wide open spaces of a high draw to sweep down the outside, if he has stamina under him.
This is class 5 and we can’t trust any of them but we appear to have two firm-ground improvers on different sides at the stalls start, Pilates in 6 and Relight My Fire in 14.
At Carlisle, Easy Terms (6.15) has had a holiday, and could resume in his form of old, which would be well good enough for this on a course he loves: nice 9.0 as I write.
He is the only horse in the race to have won right-handed in England, and Kiwayu and Tapis Libre could have come to the end of their runs. There’s no special support for anything else. But watch the BETDAQ market!
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 2.1pts win LADY IN BLUE (2.00 Lingfield). If lose, 6.3pts win OUR CHANNEL (2.10 Beverley) and a Daq Multiples 1pt win double the two
BET 3pts win on each BORDERLESCOTT and TIDDLIWINKS (3.40 Beverley)
BET 4pts win PILATES and 2.5pts win RELIGHT MY FIRE (4.10 Beverley)
BET 2.5pts win (nap) EASY TERMS (6.15 Carlisle)
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