CHELTENHAM: THE BIG TIPPING CHALLENGE: DAQMAN (25) versus PRICEWISE (10): It’s toes to the line at Prestbury Park today as Daqman and Pricewise step up to the oche for the first arrows of the big meeting. Daqman leads 25 returns to 10. Best of the Daqman bull’s-eyes with big BETDAQ value since the challenge began are:
WON 20-1 TRIOLO D’ALENE
WON 16-1 RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE
WON 12-1 ON HIS OWN (15.5 BETDAQ)
WON 8-1 LAST INSTALMENT
WON 6-1 SAPHIR DU RHEU
WON 6-1 IRISH SAINT (10.5 BETDAQ)
WON 6-1 GEVREY CHAMBERTIN (9.0 BETDAQ)
WON 5-1 SYDNEY PAGET (7.2 BETDAQ)
WON 5-1 HEY BIG SPENDER
WON 9-2 CASTILO DEL DIABLO (8.6 BETDAQ)
WON 3-1 MORE OF THAT (5.3 BETDAQ)
WON 9-4 RIVERSIDE THEATRE
WON 11-10 HURRICANE FLY
WON 11-8 DOUBLE ROSS
100-1 MULTIPLES AND DARING LAYS ALL FOUR DAYS: It wouldn’t be Daqman if he didn’t lay into the favourites. It wouldn’t be Daqman without maximum-stakes bankers. And this BETDAQ Cheltenham 2014 wouldn’t be right without doubles that double up to a 100-1. Get your Daq up!
TODAY: DOUBLE WHAMMY: Daqman has a banker win and banker place in the same race, the Mares Hurdle.
TODAY: DOUBLE WHAMMY: Daman lays the favourite and backs one to win 40 points in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.
TODAY: DOUBLE WHAMMY: Daqman lays the Champion Hurdler and tips a ‘new’ champion.
1.30 Cheltenham (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle): You need a tough type to win this flat out, hills to climb, big-field-bullying race. That’s why it’s gone to monsters like Flyingbolt, L’ Escargot and Brave Inca, ahead of their Gold Cups and Champion Hurdles.
You need a three-time winner, with big-field success, Graded-race quality and a bumper background. The last three had all four facets and two of them – Champagne Fever and Al Ferof – are favourites for the Arkle and the Ryanair at this very meeting. Say no more!
There has been a lot of talk about the handicapper Gilgamboa but he’s out of the first 10 on official ratings, and about the Grade-3 at Newbury won by Splash Of Ginge.
But he was carrying 18lb less than today and the ‘moral’ winner of that race was Irish Saint, giving Splash of Ginge 18lb but beaten only about two lengths.
All that race did was frank the form of Irish Saint’s stablemate, Irving, who had already beaten ‘Ginge’ the equivalent of about 10 lengths at Ascot.
The snag with Irving is that he lacks the street cred of a big-field success, unless you count a lowly 13-runner class-4-novice at Taunton. He has never raced in a bumper and, as a flat-track winner (Ascot, Kempton), his turn will come at Aintree.
Willie Mullins’ Vautour vanquished a 30-runner field on his hurdles debut, is by the same sire as Sir Des Champs and Quevega, has won Grade 1 and Grade 2, will like the sounder surface and will gallop on up the hill.
Wicklow Brave and Vaniteux have yet to run in a Graded contest of any kind but the ‘Brave’ still looks a strong number-2 for Mullins if he can get his jumping together.
He is behind Vautour on a line through Lieutenant Colonel, who swerves a rematch with the Mullins boys, but he beat Western Boy (won only twice) a long way in a bumper.
I prefer Josses Hill to stablemate Vaniteux. Josses Hill has won only twice but was just pipped by one of tomorrow’s Neptune favourites, Royal Boy, in the Grade-1 Tolworth Hurdle; the drying ground is a bonus and the trainer says she has come to herself in the last week.
The enigma of the race is The Liquidator, Champion Bumper fourth last season and winner of the CD trial for this in November but a flop in the Tolworth. Has David Pipe got him back?
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Vautour has everything: trainer, jockey, all the credentials and the breeding to go on from this. I’m stepping up my stake to win 40 points. My main home defender is Josses Hill, 20.0 this morning on BETDAQ.
DAQMAN’S 1-2-3-4: Vautour 1, Josses Hill 2, Wicklow Brave 3, Irving 4.
DAQMAN’S BETS: LAY 10pts IRVING and BET 10pts win VAUTOUR and (previously ante-post) 2pts win JOSSES HILL @ 16.0, with 1.5pts lost on a non-runner. Now add: 2pts win at 20.0 and 2pts place JOSSES HILL.
2.05 Cheltenham (Arkle Challenge Trophy): Though Rock On Ruby (WON 11-1) was a 17.0 BETDAQ beauty for me in the Champion Hurdle, I can’t have him here, trying to rock and roll with the youngsters at his age.
Apart from an ordinary year for the race in the 1980s, only Sir Ken has gone on to win an Arkle at the age of nine since it began as the Cotswold Chase in 1946.
Rock On Ruby is no Sir Ken, who won the Champion Hurdle three years running and did not give away his record of 16 successive victories until Big Buck’s 58 years later.
Ruby’s current rating, 10lb clear of this Arkle field, is well over the top. The handicapper had him on 170 over hurdles and has kept him on a similar pedestal for two novice-chase wins on flat tracks, 10 lengths ahead of the 150-rated Mr Mole, a poor jumper, in a two-horse race and the equivalent of 11 lengths up on the 98-rated Lindsay’s Dream.
You could equally say that Champagne Fever has had a raw deal from the handicapper as to the merits of his Supreme Novice Hurdle success. Though he beat My Tent Or Yours (currently on 167) and Jezki (162), he remains on 157 over hurdles and 158 over fences.
He would be starting a very short price today, had he not ‘hit one hard’ at Leopardstown over Christmas, a beaten odds-on favourite, finishing behind Trifolium.
Trifolium – third in the 2012 Supreme Novice – went on to frank the Leopardstown form by winning the Arkle Trial in January, when Bryan Cooper chose to ride him over Mozoltov (third). Thursday’s JLT favourite, Felix Yonger was second, Ted Veale fourth.
Willie Mullins still prefers Champagne Fever for this and has made life difficult for us by keeping him at home since the Leopardstown mishap, and rubs our noses in it with his laid-back ‘hopefully, he’ll go well.’
Meanwhile Trifolium hasn’t stood still. Nor has Dodging Bullets, though it’s hard to see the Supreme Novice ninth doing a 50-lengths turnaround with Champagne Fever.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: You have to decide: did that one ‘fault’ around Leopardstown knock Champagne Fever out of this and hand the reins to Trifolium, who put in an exhibition round in the Arkle Trial?
If so then the 15-8 on at Leopardstown about Champagne Fever, winner of the Champion Bumper on good ground and of the Supreme Novice on soft, was madness. Of course it wasn’t. He’s still the king.
DAQMAN’S 1-2-3: Champagne Fever 1, Trifolium 2, Rock On Ruby 3.
DAQMAN’S BETS: 10pts (to win 30) CHAMPAGNE FEVER (2.05 Cheltenham)
2.40 Cheltenham (Festival Chase) You can spend all day on these handicaps but, in the end, since – in theory – the handicapper has had years of their racing life to assess these animals, you have to ask the trends to guide you.
In this case, 13 of the last 14 winners came from below 11st. I also spotted in my stats research that four of the last five winners had been dropped between 5lb and 10lb in the ratings.
Tour Des Champs is one today, 10lb lower than when he ran in this last year, and an incredible 27lb better off with the winner, Golden Chieftain.
He was only six years old then and has since run up to the very smart Balthazar King over CD on good ground in October when last year’s fourth in today’s race, Tullamore Dew, was third behind him. That all smacks of improvement.
If anything is unexposed to the handicapper, that animal is going to be seven or eight and lightly raced. He is also going to show a penchant for a left-handed track, and Cheltenham is no Wrong Turn for Tony Martin’s candidate, who has been at his best anti-clockwise around Leopardstown.
Though he’s 11 now, the 2012 winner, Alfie Sherrin, has been saved up for another tilt at this and the ground has come for him
DAQMAN’S 1-2-3: Wrong Turn 1, Tour Des Champs 2, Alfie Sherrin 3.
DAQMAN’S BETS: 2.2pts win and place WRONG TURN at 14.5 on BETDAQ and 1.8pts win and place TOUR DES CHAMPS (2.40 Cheltenham)
3.20 Cheltenham (Champion Hurdle) Hurricane Fly is only as good at Cheltenham as the horses he’s beaten. Binocular’s gone. Zarkandar’s gone. Rock On Ruby’s gone chasing. The old boys’ party is over.
Jezki in the Leopardstown Ryanair in December and Our Conor in the Irish Champion Hurdle in January have both run up to Hurricane Fly recently. I see Jezki as just short of top class and Triumph Hurdle winner Our Conor – he’s only five – needing another year.
But The New One has already beaten both Rock On Ruby and Zarkandar as far as, or further than, Hurricane Fly, and would have beaten My Tent Or Yours in the Christmas Hurdle barring one bad jump.
The longer Neptune Hurdle (The New One won) is a better Cheltenham-stamina guide than the Supreme (My Tent Or Yours second) and the Triumph (Our Conor).
Hurricane Fly has been one of the hurdling greats with 19 Grade-1 wins but beating the same horses over and again does not put him in the same league as a Hattons Grace (1949-51) or a Sea Pigeon (1980-81), who both won it at the age of 10.
DAQMAN’S 1-2-3: 1 The New One, 2 Our Conor, 3 Hurricane Fly.
DAQMAN’S BETS: LAY 10pts HURRICANE FLY on BETDAQ and BET: 10pts win THE NEW ONE at 4.2 (3.05pts loss ante-post)
4.00 Cheltenham (Mares’ Hurdle) I can’t recall many races where the favourite is 81lb in front of a rank outsider (Epee Celeste) at 1000.0 on BETDAQ.
L’Unique is an Aintree horse. Cailin Annamh and Highland Retreat prefer to go right-handed. Sirene D’Ainay was run out of it by Quevega in 2013, and the French will labour on the drying ground.
Cockney Sparrow, big and raw last year, got within three lengths of My Tent Or Yours in November and was only two lengths down to Annie Power at Doncaster when she fell. This extra trip should suit, distance wise and make jumping easier.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: For me, there’s a banker win and a banker place in one race. Quevega is said to have had a better home prep this year than ever, according to Willie Mullins.
Cockney Sparrow is just now making up into a real racemare, and is massive at 12.0 the win in a 101% list in the amazing BETDAQ orange, allowing cheap cover on the favourite. And the place bet will return three times the win price about Quevega.
DAQMAN’S BANKER 1-2: Quevega 1, Cockney Sparrow 2
DAQMAN’S BETS: I made Quevega a 30-point banker to win 28 points, covered by 2.7 points win Cockney Sparrow at 12.0, plus 7.3 points place.
4.40 Cheltenham (NH Chase) This goes to seven and eight year olds for stables that can handle stayers, notably Jonjo O’Neill, who saddled four winners out of five in this between 2002-7 but does he know the race has shot up in quality?
His two last winners scored off ratings of 123 and 136, and this level was maintained through 2008-2010 with 127, 129 and 130 horses winning it.
But in the last three seasons, you’ve needed 150, 146 and 151 animals, all three placed in Graded hurdles or chases – and requiring a stallion stamina-index of at least 12.0 – with the race this year raised yet again to a class-1 Listed.
I, for one, miss the old cavalry charge of a four-mile ‘Chelters National‘ with big-odds winners (40-1 and 33-1 twice from 2005-7). Jonjo seems wide awake to the changes, saddling Shutthefrontdoor, an Accordion (stamina index 12.0) rated 146.
Shotgun Paddy has a higher rating but I’m not so keen on his family and his trainer says he’s ‘a galloper who needs soft ground.’
Foxrock looks stamina-packed, by Flemensfirth out of a Roselier mare, but it’s tricky to find another six-year-old winner (Tricky Trickster, in fact, in 2009, the only one since 1989 and only the third in 60 years).
Firm Order and Midnight Prayer have bags of stamina in the pedigree.
Herdsman and Suntiep are improving but seem to need the mud. According To Trev ran a stinker in the Great Yorkshire but is another Accordion, likes Cheltenham, and handles top of the ground.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: On ratings Shotgun Paddy, Shutthefrontdoor and Foxrock are clear but there are holes in all three and we simply don’t know which one will last the 4m.
I shall take an improver who stays until the mother-in-law has run out of breath. Herdsman – 26.0 on BETDAQ – is also ridden by the current best amateur (21% strike rate), Robbie McNamara, and with a yard that can surprise with its stayers. Is this one their new Aurora’s Encore!
5.15 Cheltenham There’s pace up front from Baby Mix, Buthelezi, Festive Affair, Present View and Up To Something.
Art Of Logistics, Buywise, Ohio Gold and Present View prefer to race right-handed. Stamina is an issue for Ahyaknowyerself, Pendra and Tony Star.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: By process of elimination, I am with Ericht (11.5 on BETDAQ), fifth in last year’s Coral Cup, and County Hurdle third, Manyriverstocross (11.0).
DAQMAN’S 1-2-3: Manyriverstocross 1, Ericht 2, King Vuvuzela 3
DAQMAN’S BETS: 3pts win each ERICHT and MANYRIVERSTOCROSS
DAQMAN’S BETS
LAY 10pts IRVING and BET (to win 40) 10pts win VAUTOUR and (previously ante-post) 2pts win JOSSES HILL @ 16.0 (1.5pts lost on a non-runner) plus 2pts win and 2pts place JOSSES HILL at 20.0 (1.30 Cheltenham)
BET: 10pts win (nap) CHAMPAGNE FEVER (2.05 Cheltenham)
BET: 2.2pts win and place WRONG TURN at 14.5 and 1.8pts win and place TOUR DES CHAMPS at 17.5 (2.40 Cheltenham)
LAY 10pts HURRICANE FLY and BET: 10pts win THE NEW ONE at 4.2 (3.05pts loss ante-post) (3.20 Cheltenham)
BANKER 1-2: BET 30pts win QUEVEGA, plus 2.7pts win and 7.3pts place COCKNEY SPARROW (3.4pts loss on non-runner) (4.00 Cheltenham)
BET: 2pts win and place HERDSMAN at 26.0 (4.40 Cheltenham)
BET: 3pts win on each ERICHT (11.5) and MANYRIVERSTOCROSS at 11.0 (5.15 Cheltenham)
DOUBLE-YOUR-MONEY DAQ DOUBLES: 5 x 1pt win doubles and 2 x 1pt win trebles VAUTOUR (1.30 Cheltenham) and CHAMPAGNE FEVER (3.05 Cheltenham) with ERICHT and MANYRIVERSTOCROSS (5.15 Cheltenham)
HORSES TO FOLLOW: Trifolium (2.05 Cheltenham) My Tent Or Yours, Our Conor (3.20 Cheltenham)
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