DAQMAN GOES FOR 1,000 POINTS FROM FANTASTIC BETDAQ VALUE: Daqman’s overall profits are well over 900 points and he wants to crack the 1,000 barrier at Cheltenham. Every race every day will come under the microscope as the king of the tipsters seeks out hot naps and wild-card long-shots, all considered value for money on the BETDAQ exchange, where overrounds this morning on the Day-1 card were between 103 and 105%. Last year’s SP Totals for the same races: 124, 120, 132, 117, 122, 131 and 123%
DAQMAN NH ACCOUNTS UPDATE
📈 Daqman 35, Pricewise 16 (+483.40 to -61.00) 10pt stakes at SP
📈 Bull’s-eye bets: 40% (+327.80 from 16-39) staked to win 50
📈 Bulls-eye naps: 0% (-19.00 from 0-2) (2019: 47% +249 from 8-17)
📈 All Daily Naps 45% (+104.57 from 51-114) 10pt stakes at SP
📈 Supernaps 53% (+40.02 from 14-26) 20pt stakes at SP
📈 Fortune Cookies 44% (+11.88 from 4-9) 20pt stakes at SP
MAGIC START AS CLASS MARE CAN STAR IN THE CHAMPION HURDLE: The race of the day? Is it the Supreme start or is it the Champion Hurdle? The Press is knocking it, just as they do the Derby every year. They have to have something to blog and blag about. We’ll just talk value and winners!
Cheltenham Day 1 Headlines
🔹 ABACADABRAS MAGIC BETDAQ 8.0
🔹 NOTEBOOK RATED AN ARKLE NAP
🔹 40.0 SHOT FROM THE RIGHT YARD
🔹 EPATANTE CLASS CAN STOP STAR
🔹 IS THERE STILL HONEY FOR TEA?
🔹 HELTER-SKELTON NOVICE AT 16.0
🔹 CAREFULLY OPPOSED FOR VALUE
🌧️ UPDATE: Going SOFT after rain overnight
ABACADABRAS MAGIC BETDAQ 8.0
⭕ 1.30 Cheltenham (Supreme Novices Hurdle)
REPRISE: See How They Won (Daqman Archive: February 25, 26, 27, 28). Stats (Daqman Archive: March 3, 4, 5, 6)
KEY RACES: Asterion Forlonge, Fiddlerontheroof.
RATINGS: Asterion Forlonge 155, Fiddlerontheroof 154, Abacadabras 153, Shishkin 153.
TRAINER: Asterion Forlonge
FORM: The Royal Bond at Fairyhouse, in which Envoi Allen saw off Abacadabras, with Darver Star third, is often a guide to the to the Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown and this Supreme launch of the Cheltenham Festival.
Sure enough, Abacadabras won at Leopardstown, with form lines which suggest he would be closer to Envoi Allen in any rematch of the Fairyhouse one-two.
In fact, Envoi Allen runs in the Ballymore tomorrow off 156, Abacadabras is on 153 for this Supreme start to the festival, and Gavin Cromwell considers the race so strong that he runs Darver Star in the Champion Hurdle.
Darver Star is now on 158 after a narrow defeat, giving away weight, in the Irish Champion Hurdle, won by Honeysuckle.
Meanwhile, the grey Asterion Forlonge overcame Easywork in the Leopardstown Grade-1 novice which, as the Deloitte, has also been a blueprint for success in the Supreme. He’s on 155 for Willie Mullins, who has won it five times.
Shishkin has done nothing of note but done it well, and the handicapper, wary of Nicky Henderson, has him on 153. Fiddlerontheroof (154) won the Tolworth, as did the 2018 Supreme winner.
BETDAQ VALUE: Horses from the Royal Bond and subsequent races form a pool of form that could be involved in three results today – Abacadabras, Darver Star and Honeysuckle – and one tomorrow with Envoi Allen. I followed that form pool, starting with Abacadabras win and place at BETDAQ 8.0 early mouse.
NOTEBOOK RATED AN ARKLE NAP
⭕ 2.10 Cheltenham (Arkle Challenge Trophy)
REPRISE: See How They Won (Archive: February 25, 26, 27, 28). Stats (Archive: March 3, 4, 5, 6)
FORTUNE COOKIE: Notebook
KEY RACES: Notebook, Global Citizen
RATINGS: Notebook 158, Rouge Vif, 157, Cash Back 156, Global Citizen 156.
TRAINER: Cash Back
FORM: Six odds-on favourites have won in the last eight seasons, and I’m expecting bankrolls on Notebook (BETDAQ 4.4 this morning), winner of the Racing Post and the Arkle at Leopardstown (pictured), both key races, in which he first gave weight and a beating to Fakir D’Oudairies, then held the improving Cash Back with an exhibition of natural fencing.
Global Citizen won the Wayward Lad Chase, which was a stepping stone for Altior, Simonsig and Sprinter Sacre to victory here.
Rouge Vif, the Wayward Lad runner-up, seemed to improve at Warwick on the last day, and is upped to a 157 mark, only a pound behind Notebook.
VERDICT: Rouge Vif seems flattered by his proximity to Notebook in the ratings. Cash Back, who made Notebook pull out all the stops in the Leopardstown Arkle, is the sole representative of Willie Mullins (four from five in the race) but he and Global Citizen are both aged eight (1-17 since Moscow Flyer in 2002).
40.0 SHOT FROM THE RIGHT YARD
⭕ 2.50 Cheltenham (Ultima Handicap Chase)
REPRISE: See How They Won (Archive: February 25, 26, 27, 28). Stats (Archive: March 3, 4, 5, 6)
FORTUNE COOKIE: Vinndication
KEY RACES: Mister Malarky, Vinndication
TRAINERS: Quarenta
FORM: I wanted the course to dry to Mister Malarky ground but there was rain overnight. He’s my 2021 Grand National horse, most convincing on good to soft on a flat track at Kempton (Kildisart fifth), though coped fairly well with Cheltenham when fourth in the RSA at the 2019 festival.
Vinndication is lightly raced and has had his problems but is a class act when on his game. Fifth in the 2019 JLT (now Marsh Novices Chase), a nose behind Kildisart at levels.
Vinndication now has to give 9lb to Kildisart, who was staying on behind Mister Malarky the last day, the very horse he beat at the Aintree Grand National meeting, giving 4lb, but also on good ground.
BETDAQ VALUE: Jonjo O’Neill has won this twice since Alfie Sherrin off a light weight at 14-1, and Quarenta (with 10st 4lb) looks perfectly primed for a touch. Harry Cobden booked, while son of Jonjo is retained for Mister Malarky.
I kept it in the family with 40.0 and 18.0 respectively in the BETDAQ orange but also have a Fortune Cookie bet on Vinndication, which gives me a 1-2-3: Mister Malarky, Quarenta, Vinndication (any order with Ladbrokes).
EPATANTE CLASS CAN STOP STAR
⭕ 3.30 Cheltenham (Champion Hurdle)
REPRISE: See How They Won (Archive: February 25, 26, 27, 28). Stats (Archive: March 3, 4, 5, 6)
FORTUNE COOKIES: Epatante
RATINGS: Epatante 159 (allowed 7lb), Sharjah 163, Supasundae 160, Cilaos Emery 159, Call Me Lord 157
TRAINERS: Call Me Lord, Cilaos Emery, Epatante, Fusil Raffles, Pentland Hills, Sharjah.
FORM TRENDS: Most of the Gold Cup field fulfilled all qualifications (see Monday’s column) but just a Champion Hurdle quartet stand out when combining these stats: 94% had won four hurdles or more at around 2m; 92% first or second in a Grade 1; 75% of winners were aged 6 to 8. Qualifiers with ratings (*asterisk bonus: has raced at Cheltenham)
159 (166) *EPATANTE (Nicky Henderson) The handicapper hiked her 22lb after a Ladbrokes ace-race double of Intermediate Hurdle, Newbury, and Christmas Hurdle, Kempton. Not so much what she beat but how she did it. And she gets 7lb allowance.
163 *SHARJAH (Willie Mullins) Would really like drying ground which has enabled him to beat Faugheen (Punchestown), Supasundae and Petit Mouchoir both (Leopardstown) in a chequered career. Brought down early in 2019.
159 CORNERSTONE LAD (Micky Hammond) Never out of the first three in 14 hurdles races, ending the reign of dual champion, Buveur d’Air, in the Fighting Fifth in November. Tough as teak and loves the mud. He and Darver Star will vie for the each-way money.
158 DARVER STAR (Gavin Cromwell) Gavin sadly lost last year’s surprise winner, Espoir d’Allen. Now he expects a good run from Darver Star, who represents the form pool of Envoi Allen and Honeysuckle, after runner-up in the Irish Champion Hurdle.
ALSO: Triumph Hurdle winner, *Pentland Hills, disappointing this season, could improve after a wind op. Still only five so more likely to than *Cilaos Emery, back to form but aged eight now and his Supreme Novice Hurdle fifth was a long way back in 2017.
VERDICT AND BETDAQ VALUE: In this age of magical mares, Epatante (4.3 BETDAQ) exudes class. The improver of the race is Darver Star (value at 15.0 BETDAQ) from the stable that shook up the form last year.
IS THERE STILL HONEY FOR TEA?
⭕ 4.10 Cheltenham (Mares’ Hurdle)
REPRISE: See How They Won (Daqman Archive: February 25, 26, 27, 28). Stats (Daqman Archive: March 3, 4, 5, 6)
FORTUNE COOKIE: Honeysuckle
KEY RACES: Benie Des Dieux
RATINGS: 162 Benie Des Dieux, 158 Honeysuckle, 153 Stormy Ireland.
TRAINER: Benie Des Dieux
FORM: Benie Des Dieux tries to do a Quevega and win this a second time (after success in 2018) at the age nine. She was clear when she fell at the last, going for the double a year ago, but soon had her revenge on the runner-up, Stormy Ireland, with an easy success in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle.
Can she give three years away to the rising star, Honeysuckle, who has peaked at 158, only three races after taking the mares novices at Fairyhouse last Spring off 140.
Her double of Hattons Grace in December and Irish Champion Hurdle last month raised the question of whether she should run in the Champion Hurdle but left another question unanswered – her jumping reliability – which Cheltenham will surely find out.
VERDICT: So much of a two-horse race that I had to decide long ago for Fortune Cookie purposes whose side I would be on. I have my 20-point stake on Honeysuckle for that reason, but I’ll also team her up with Benie Des Dieux as a dual banker in my Daq Multiples.
Don’t forget, it’s leg three of a form pool: if Abracadabras and Darver Star have been beaten, Honeysuckle is soured and Envoi Allen no longer the Ballymore ‘good thing’ tomorrow.
HELTER-SKELTON NOVICE AT 16.0
⭕ 4.50 Cheltenham (novices’ handicap chase)
REPRISE: See How They Won (Daqman Archive: February 25, 26, 27, 28). Stats (Daqman Archive: March 3, 4, 5, 6)
RATINGS: Hold The Note, Precious Cargo, Torpillo all on 145. Hardly the handicap it claims to be, so I’ve listed the ratings as if it’s a conditions race, but 10 in the field are within the tight parameter of 142 to 145, and no one trainer dominates.
FORM: The Skelton’s Beakstown has been mixing it with the likes of Sam Spinner (164), Champ (rated 153) and Mister Fisher (153) so is probably let off with his 139 mark. Now has cheekpieces to straighten him out.
Imperial Aura had Martin Pipe fourth Champagne Court behind when runner-up over today’s trip here at Cheltenham in January but on the old course.
Espoir De Guye gets into this because he was punished a stone for scoring at Ascot, so they had to have a go today. I can’t fancy 2m-only winners Precious Cargo and Torpillo.
Earlofthecotswolds’ Market Rasen wins wouldn’t normally translate to a track like this; I’d got him down for Aintree. Team Tizzard have not lost faith in Highest Sun, though their confidence is not easily found in form book or market!
BETDAQ VALUE: I thought Beakstown’s 16.0 appealing, and I’ll play Highest Sun as my wild card: 37.0 taken.
CAREFULLY OPPOSED FOR VALUE
⭕ 5.30 Cheltenham (NH Challenge Cup)
REPRISE: See How They Won (Daqman Archive: February 25, 26, 27, 28). Stats (Daqman Archive: March 3, 4, 5, 6)
RATINGS: Lord Du Mesnil 153; Carefully Selected 152; Newtide, The Hollow Ginge 144
TRAINER: Carefully Selected, Ravenhill
FORM: They’ve dropped this race back in trip from the near-4m test that produced Teaforthree, Tiger Roll, Cause Of Causes and Rathvinden for the National. I hope they haven’t messed it up!
Strange to see Ravenhill suddenly attempt a marathon trip at age 10, even though Gordon Elliott loves this race.
It’s always been the target for super-jumper Carefully Selected; and who am I to argue with Willie Mullins that it’s not in his breeding (gave 6lb and a beating to Forza Milan at Naas)?
Nor is it the obvious trip on breeding for Lord Du Mesnil but his 3m 4f+ win and second in mudbaths at Haydock already say otherwise.
BETDAQ VALUE: The 6.8 Lord Du Mesnil with that Corinthian Waley-Cohen on my side might be good enough to beat Carefully Selected; he’s certainly better value. I’ll put both in my Daq Multiples.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.30 Cheltenham (bull’s-eye bet to win 50, place 10)
BET 7pts win and place ABACADABRAS
2.10 Cheltenham (supernap)
BET 20pts win NOTEBOOK
2.50 Cheltenham (bulls-eye bets to win 50, places 10)
BET 3pts win and place MISTER MALARKY
BET 1.25pts win and place QUARENTA
3.30 Cheltenham (win-50 bull’s-eye nap, plus win 30 and place 10)
BET 15pts win EPATANTE
BET 2pts win and 3pts place DARVER STAR
4.50 Cheltenham (win-50 bull’s-eye bets, places 10)
BET 3.3pts win and place BEAKSTOWN
BET 1.3pts win and place HIGHEST SUN
5.30 Cheltenham (win 30)
BET 5pts win LORD DU MESNIL
DAQ MULTIPLES
Four x 3pt win doubles
4.10 Cheltenham
Benie Des Dieux and Honeysuckle
X
5.30 Cheltenham
Lord Du Mesnil and Carefully Selected
Plus 4 x 2pt win trebles with
x
Notebook (2.10)
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