DAY 2 COUNTDOWN TO THE ARC: This is the second day of Daqman’s countdown to the Arc, in which he compares the runners, two or more at a time. Today it’s a match between The Fugue and Flintshire with a nap at Chepstow this afternoon.
BREAK EVEN: It was a break even start to the week for DAQMAN as his lay on Beckermet (unplaced, evens) cancelled out the loss on the nap Manatee Bay who lost ground at the start and finished third.
COUNTDOWN TO THE ARC: THE FUGUE 6, FLINTSHIRE 5
They don’t come back after a trials defeat. Yesterday, I had a positive (for Leading Light) and a ‘maybe’ (for Intello; pace and draw would have to be right). Today I go thumbs down twice.
I can’t see Flintshire turning around the Prix Niel form. The stats are massively against. Since 1972, some 25 winners of the Arc have come from the day of trials – Foy, Niel and Vermeille – but only three beaten in those trials have gone on to win.
The Arc is seldom won on excuses. But there are excuses aplenty after the race itself. Those excuses usually concern horses that take a buffeting, with the tricky straight often the scene of barging, as well-drawn animals on the inside are tiring, charged at down the outer by the hold-up gang.
If you ask me to nominate one boy racer unlikely to handle such a stock-car scenario, I would name Flintshire, and for why? He’s met only 36 horses in his entire career.
Until he flopped in the Niel, he had never been seen in a field of more than nine runners. His claim to fame before that day was his defeat of a maiden-winner Manndawi, with Epsom Derby fifth, Ocovango, in third.
I don’t have to tell you what a low-level left-hand-down rally of a race was this year’s Epsom Derby! Streamlined super colts of Aston Martin standard there were none.
No, Flintshire then just had to win the Niel whereas, in fact, Ocovango turned round the placings, finishing third with Flintshire fourth, to the Japanese raider Kizuna, about whom more later.
In Flintshire’s defence, he didn’t like the soft ground. All his success – three wins from five – had come on a relatively sound surface.
Yesterday, I named Leading Light as the horse Ladbrokes are shortest about, over and above the other bookmakers. Today I name the one they’re giving away.
Ladbrokes are longest about The Fugue. They can’t see this daughter of Dansili beating the colts or the three-year-olds, and who can blame them.
Again, we are talking about an animal which must have a sound surface. ‘No brollies in Paris on Sunday please’ is trainer John Gosden’s fervent plea.
The Fugue, kept largely to top of the ground, had not been the same filly that won last year’s Nassau Stakes, twice beaten by Al Kazeem, at Royal Ascot and in the Eclipse.
But Gosden’s faith in her on a sound surface was justified with back-to-back Group-1 wins inside 16 days in the Yorkshire Oaks and the Irish Champion Stakes, in which she gained her revenge on Al Kazeem.
But that was a tired Al Kazeem of half a dozen hard races this season, and the third, Trading Leather, puts The Fugue well adrift of the likes of Novellist.
I set myself The Fugue v Flintshire here. Why? Neither wants soft ground. If it’s a rainy day come Sunday, both are thumbs down. If not, I favour The Fugue. But only to beat Flinsthire.
DAQMAN’S MATCH VERDICT: The Fugue 6, Flintshire 5. OFFICIAL RATINGS: The Fugue 123, Flintshire (app) 117
TODAY’S RACING
A better day than Monday and the jumps are in the majority today with Chepstow and Sedgefield staging afternoon cards together with flat action from Ayr.
I couldn’t resist a mention of the Portable Toilets Ltd Selling Hurdle at Chepstow. It’s hardly flush with quality horses who are on a winning roll to have punters cheering from the edge of their seats (ENOUGH puns, editor).
In the 4.50 at Chepstow I thought Superciliary looked of interest in this handicap hurdle. This is a weak contest, made up mainly of horses out of form, and Superciliary does at least bring some consistency into the race.
He popped up at 20/1 to win on the flat at Kempton last time out and was even bigger odds (33/1) when winning a handicap hurdle at Plumpton earlier in the year.
The Charlie Gordon stable had a winner at Worcester last week and Superciliary looks the most sensible option.
Top weight Clarion Call was the early favourite on BETDAQ but, in terms of winning, the Clarion doesn’t call often – only one career win from 34 starts.
My instinct was to try and find one to beat the Roger Charlton trained Tides Reach, who was a beaten odds-on favourite at Salisbury last time out, but the 6.20 at Kempton looks gift-wrapped for her and I’m a player rather than a layer.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
BET 10pts win (nap) SUPERCILIARY (4.50 Chepstow)
BET 10pts win TIDES REACH (6.20 Kempton)
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