BETDAQ 100% VALUE FOR CHELTENHAM: This is how betting should be. A level playing field, where the punter spends 100 and the layer pays out 100. That’s exactly what you had on the BETDAQ EXCHANGE this morning with the first four races of offers adding up to 100% and the rest on 101 or 102. Compare that with the bookmaker take-outs in Total SPs for those races last year of 121, 112, 126, 112, 120, 120 and 126%.
THE DAQMAN LAY-DOWN: 11 IN A ROW: Daqman tries to convert this advantage into hard cash today, searching for more Festival value, which he’s already achieved ante-post with some huge ‘overs’, trading in his bets for a win-win situation. He also brings back his lays, which are themselves 100% with 11 in a row.
HE’S 60 WINS CLEAR OF PRICEWISE: The battle with Pricewise of the Racing Post continues, with the score Daqman 131, Pricewise 71 after Daqman’s sensational Saturdays with winners at 33-1, 8-1 twice, 5-1 twice, 4-1, 7-2 and 5-1, including two naps. They are head-to-head today in the 2.40, 3.20, 4.40 and 5.15 races
CD-WINNER SEEDLING 23.0 DOUVAN THREAT
It’s not rocket science. There are four Willie Mullins’ ‘bankers’ at Cheltenham today but only two of them worthy of the name; the two others are short odds on potential, appearance and reputation. And there’s a warning in the first race against overloading your Mullins’ multiples.
1.30 Cheltenham (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle): The Mullins’ connections have already lost one gamble at Cheltenham. Alvisio Ville was the plunge horse for tomorrow’s Neptune in February (20-1 to 7-1), but he ran green in the Deloitte behind stablemate Nichols Canyon, now the Neptune favourite.
The strapping 17-hands ex-French should do better today. Typical of what I’m trying to say about these hyped horses, he’s gone from the sublime odds-on athlete that disappointed once to the ridiculous no-hoper at 22.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
The hype for Alvisio Ville was on a par with the rave notices about Douvan, who has also looked a supreme racehorse (pun intended), dominating small fields in his preps.
But this race is a graveyard for hot favourites: only three of the last 17 horses to start at 3-1 or shorter have won. And he, too, eased this morning, 3.15 as I write.
Douvan also defies the stats twice more in that he hasn’t been seen for 59 days and he hasn’t had experience of big fields at a fast pace in either hurdles or bumpers.
His defeat of Sizing John at Gowran in November reads well in that Sizing John went on to win the Leopardstown Future Champions Novice Hurdle over Christmas but the one he beat, Sub Lieutenant, was unsighted behind Nichols Canyon and Alvisio Ville in that Deloitte.
Douvan’s second success was in beating the stayer Alpha Des Obeaux after that one had lost a Grade 3 when hooded first time to do the business at Cork. Nothing special there either, then.
Can any home contender stem the Mullins attack? L’Ami Serge’s last win was let down by the runner-up and, on collateral form, the one he beat at Ascot comes well down the Mullins’ pecking order behind Outlander.
Jollyallan’s run ended as soon as he stepped up to Listed level, which is three grades below today’s race. The form of Seedling (bred for stamina) was boosted by As De Mee on Saturday. Qewy is quirky but was a Listed winner on the Flat.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Douvan has looked special in his races. He might be a machine, but there is absolutely nothing in his DNA that says he’s out of the ordinary – or even IN the ordinary! – and his form is no bush fire.
And in the bonfire of the Alivisio Ville Neptune ante-post vouchers could come a place result in this at 5.7 (the win is 22.0 as I write).
I shall also have a win and place Seedling, 23.0 on BETDAQ early mouse. Most progressive, he’s won at Cheltenham and beat As De Mee at Plumpton the weight equivalent of around 12lb, before that one ran away with the NH Novices Final at Sandown on Saturday.
The market this morning was 100% – a level playing-field – so we alone on BETDAQ can afford to spend a few extra points in a saver Douvan. If you’re betting 126% with the bookies, there is no rope left. Except to destroy your margins and hang yourself.
15.5 VALUE BUT IT’S SEWN UP FOR SCEAUX
2.05 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Arkle Challenge Trophy): Un De Sceaux is the first monster – and probably the biggest – of the meeting. He looks Champion Chase standard already.
He was flawless at Leopardstown when he slammed Clarcam the weights equivalent of 25 lengths after Clarcam had beaten Ted Veale and Vautour 17 lengths over Christmas. That has him home and hosed while the others are at the bottom of the Cheltenham hill.
The only obstacle in the way is Vibrato Valtat. When it’s a seeming one-horse race, value hunters always look for an improver to come and beat it.
At 15.5 when I backed him, Vibrato Valtat was the value; was the improver. He demolished the hat-trick winner Top Gamble to set himself up for this, showing speed at the finish, which is what we’re looking for at Cheltenham, if stamina is also in the pedigree. It is.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: I had the value (15.5) with Vibrato Valtat, and I’m in a win-win situation off a trade when he was a third of those odds.
He’s eased to 8.6 this morning, which suggests that I should spend my winnings on an Un De Sceaux banker stake and have two horses running for me for the price of one!
15.5 GEVREY CHAMBERTIN TO TIP THE BOTTLE
2.40 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Ultima Handicap Chase) The McCoy factor has put Pendra in the hot seat here, but he’s never won beyond 2m and, when he was touted for the extra trip in the novices-handicap here at the festival last March (2m 4f), he was only third.
Ned Stark won the Towton at Wetherby in January but a line through the runner-up gives him nothing to spare over Gevrey Chambertin.
A disappointment a year ago leading up to and in the RSA itself, the Pipe hope was dropped a staggering 18lb, re-emerging with success back at novices’ level, galloping relentlessly round Newbury, helped by first-time blinkers and the sounder surface he’ll get today.
Four of the last five winners of this had been dropped in the ratings and, though the handicapper has restored some of his burden, Gevrey Chambertin is still only seven, though we see him as vintage; he seems to have been around so long.
Jonjo O’Neill has won this three times in the decade and Dursey Sound, another dropped down the handicap, will love the conditions. Likewise Lamb Or Cod, who lost his way in the winter but goes well fresh.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Ned Stark at 10.0 and Gevrey Chambertin at 15.5 are the value bets, pitched into the race at the right weight by top trainers after prep wins on the last day. Pendra is a big price to lay so instead I’ll have a Betdaq Match Bet: Ned Stark to beat Pendra (1.86 this morning).
IS FAUGHEEN THE NEW ONE? IT’S A PHOTO
3.20 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Champion Hurdle) Four winners of 58 races make this a champions’ Champion Hurdle. And I didn’t even include last year’s winner, Jezki, in that total.
Jezki adds a mere nine additional hurdles successes, has a below-average strike-rate at this level and was probably a lucky winner in 2014 when The New One was hampered and lost his chance. Has been playing second fiddle to Hurricane Fly in his last three starts.
Hurricane Fly would have to be a Hattons Grace (1949-51) or a Sea Pigeon (1980-81) to win at the age of 11, and modern champions with more than two wins in the race started their sequence at age seven, including Hurricane Fly himself.
The New One will love the ground but, while he’s been playing in Grade 2 this season (back-to-back wins), another seven-year-old, Faugheen, rung up his third Grade 1 by winning the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton at cruising speed.
On a line through Purple Bay, that puts him a conservative eight lengths in front of Bertimont, who has twice tackled The New One since December.
Bertimont was 25 lengths off him at the weights in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham and more than 10 lengths down at the weights in the Haydock Champion Hurdle Trial.
Faugheen is unbeaten in eight races and won the kingmaker Neptune Hurdle at this meeting last March. On collateral form, his Ascot Hurdle success in November equates to a 12lb advantage over World Hurdle winner, More Of That, though that’s not comparing like with like.
The official ratings al ready have Faugheen on a par with Hurricane Fly, who has landed two Champion Hurdles here. But how much more would The New One be rated had he won last year?
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Strictly on form, The New One is the value. And taking form over potential, The New One again has it over Faugheen. On jumping ability, both have made mistakes this season, and the race could hinge on that.
Faugheen could be the new wonder horse but he’ll need to be in this field of champions and the lay is for that reason: I have so many good horses running for me against him. It could be close. Faugheen stumbles at the last as The New One surges. It’s a photo!
ANNIE POWER PIVOTAL TO DAQ MULTIPLES
4.00 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Mares’ Hurdle) Quevega, who has won the last six, has left the throne room. And stablemate Annie Power is expected to be crowned the new Queen of the Festival.
She looks far in front of these, with the only likely danger Glen’s Melody.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: The betting has been all about the front two. I thought Annie Power might defect to a depleted World Hurdle. That left me backing Glens Melody but Annie Power looks pivotal in your Daq Multiples as the field stands today, and the Glens Melody bet becomes a saver in case anything untoward happens.
EITHER WAY IT’S AN ANTE-POST SUCCESS
4.40 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Toby Balding NH Chase) Alan King has had two winners of this four-miler in recent years. Horses aged seven and eight are 10 from 12, and King’s contender is the seven-year-old Sego Success.
The trainer says: ‘Stamina is his forte. And he keeps finding.’ He looks the danger to Cause Of Causes, who was tipped to me weeks ago.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: I took 44.0 Cause Of Causes (to win 50), and he has crashed down the offers: 9.0 best in the BETDAQ orange this morning. Saver Sego Success.
38.0 RUM FOR JONJO HANDICAP PUNCH
5.15 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Club Novice Handicap Chase) Irish Cavalier ran third to Generous Ransom over a furlong further at Cheltenham. He kept finding on the run-in as though a faster pace, giving him a stiffer test, would have helped and, of course, he’s better off here with the winner.
A win for Horizontal Speed would boost Saphir Du Rheu and Southfield Theatre. He takes on nothing like their class here.
If Lough Dearg was being saddled by Willie Mullins here, he would be a short price. He’s done nothing wrong and the next three home behind him on the last day all won before or after that race.
He’s been winning at 2m (up in the ratings a massive 42lb since November) but is bred for today’s trip.
Thomas Crapper was runner-up to Don Poli in the Martin Pipe at this meeting a year ago. He can be put anywhere in a race, and Cheltenham brings out the best in him. Good form again this season, including a close second to Vibrato Valtat but he’s eight now and may find one too good.
Keltus is a dark horse, unexposed at today’s trip, and saved up for the race by Paul Nicholls, though I’m a bit worried about his jumping for Cheltenham and he’s still only five.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: I could back half a dozen in this open race. Irish Cavalier looks good at 14.5 win and place. I think Horizontal Speed more an Aintree horse.
Keltus is too young. Thomas Crapper too old. But I wasn’t born yesterday and I think Jonjo O’Neill has saved up Rum And Butter for the better ground. I forecast a plunge from 38.0 on BETDAQ this morning (7.8 the place) and I’m looking for another trade.
DAQMAN’S BETS Win target advised and staked accordingly, but bankers are 20pts win, 30pts (gold) and 40pts (diamond)
*BET (to win 40 points each) 2pts win and place on each ALVISIO VILLE and SEEDLING, with 4pts win (stakes saver) DOUVAN (1.30 Cheltenham)
* GOLD BANKER: BET 30pts win UN DE SCEAUX (2.05 Cheltenham); ante-post BULL’S-EYE BET (win 50) 3.5pts win VIBRATO VALTAT at 15.5, stake saved in trade (2.05 Cheltenham)
* BULL’S EYE BETS (to win 50): 5.5pts win NED STARK and 3.4pts win GEVREY CHAMBERTIN, plus BETDAQ MATCH BET: 10pts NED STARK to beat PENDRA (2.40 Cheltenham)
* LAY 10pts FAUGHEEN and BET (to win 30): 7pts win THE NEW ONE (3.20 Cheltenham)
* DIAMOND BANKER: BET 40pts win (nap) ANNIE POWER (4.0 Cheltenham), and ante-post 9pts win (win 50) GLENS MELODY at 5.5 (4.00 Cheltenham)
* BET (to win 30): 5.5pts win SEGO SUCCESS and ante-post 1.1pt win (win 50) CAUSE OF CAUSES at 44.0 (4.40 Cheltenham)
* BET (to win 30): 2.2pts win and place IRISH CAVALIER and 0.8pts win and 2.2pts place RUM AND BUTTER (5.15 Cheltenham)
* DAQ MULTIPLES: 10pts win double Un De Sceaux (2.05 Cheltenham) and Annie Power (4.00 Cheltenham)
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