DAQMAN WINNERS CONTINUE DAILY: Winner-a-day Daqman, who landed a 7-2 nap on Monday, scored with Lihou (WON 11-4) at Wolverhampton last night, giving him a profitable edge on the day but he picked the wrong one for his naps hat-trick, leaving him on four winning best bets in a week.
SATURDAY PREVIEWS – PART 1: Daqman opens his preview of Saturday’s Warwick Classic, recalling much-loved stayers as the stats reveal them.
LADIES DAY IN A CLASSIC 1-2-3-4
⭕ 3.00 Saturday, Warwick Classic STATS: AGE this century (20 renewals): 9-year-olds 5, 8yo 5, 10yo 4, 7yo 3, 11yo 2, 12yo 1.
WEIGHT: 10st 5lb and under 8; 11st and above 7; 10st 6lb to 10st 12lb 5 (so sub-11st win 13-7).
TRAINERS: Alan King 3, Emma Lavelle 2, Paul Nicholls 2.
If not the Liverpool Grand National, then this race used to be a good guide to the Scottish version.
Moorcroft Boy (for ‘Duke’ Nicholson) and Willsford (Jenny Pitman) won the Classic and the Scottish Grand National in successive years, 1994-5.
But the bookies loved to set a hare running for Aintree from this race, cutting the odds about Warwick winners in screaming headlines in the racing Press.
West End Rocker and Shotgun Paddy between 2011 and 2014, helped layers pocket big-money bets well in advance of Liverpool.
West End Rocker (Alan King) had also won the Becher, but the National was not a happy landing: 2011 brought down, 2012 fell at the second fence.
Shotgun Paddy would be everyone’s favourite chaser without hitting the big time. Aintree ante-post money was lost.
He was 2nd in the NH Chase at Cheltenham, 3rd in the Welsh Grand National, 2nd then 3rd in the Eider Chase for Emma Lavelle.
But at last, in 2017, came the Warwick Classic’s finest hour. Again, it wasn’t quite Shotgun Paddy’s: he was 7-1 favourite, third.
But the winner, One For Arthur, would go on to take the Grand National for Scotland under Derek Fox.
The Warwick Classic that day in January, 2017, produced a unique result which marked down four trainers – all women – for their ability with stayers.
The ladies finished 1-2-3-4 with One For Arthur (Lucinda Russell), Goodtoknow (Kerry Lee), Shotgun Paddy (Emma Lavelle) and Houblin Des Obeaux (Venetia Williams). Classic!
HEAD’S UP FOR NICHOLLS AGAIN
⭕ 2.40 and 4.15 Exeter Talking of 1-2-3-4. That’s how Paul Nicholls and Harry Cobden rattled up a four-timer at Taunton yesterday. First four races. Nothing else got a look-in as they made it 10 new-year Nicholls winners.
It wouldn’t be buying money if you got on the early 2.18 loupy Collonges (2.40) in the opener at Exeter today.
Pentire Head (4.15) is a shade better than evens at 2.1 but possibly too short because of ‘known unknowns’ in the race. On the other hand, all winners of this bumper have been odds-on so far.
Pentire Head and loupy Collonges are Nicholls only runners between now and Saturday, when he has 14 possibles at Kempton and Warwick.
ONE GLANCE AND YOU SEE VALUE
⭕ 1.50 Doncaster Nicky Henderson has a 28% strike rate at Doncaster, where Bold Endeavour (hovering just short of even money on BETDAQ) looks likely to follow up his all-the-way Leicester win on his Seven Barrows debut.
The opposition is from stables out of form: Sam Thomas (Skytastic) is 0-8 and hasn’t had a winner for three weeks; Toby Lawes for 63 days.
Nicky Richards (Famous Bridge) is 1-16, and Brian Ellison (Baron de Midleton) on 1-15 hasn’t scored for five weeks.
⭕ 2.25 Doncaster Another trainer bang in form is Alan King. I was surprised to see that Doncaster and Huntingdon are high on his list of winningmost courses but which track isn’t vulnerable to his astute planning?
The sounder surface helped his Midnight Glance score at Exeter (3m good) and he was a good second on the sharper Wincanton course, staying on in December.
The winner that day, Certainly Red, stopped the gambled-on Gemirande at Sandown on Saturday.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 4.4 Midnight Glance
DON AN OFFER YOU CAN’T REFUSE
⭕ 3.15 Exeter Don Herbager started out here with victory in a class 5 over 3m on heavy ground in January two years back.
He’s now 26lb higher but, having won a stayers’ race last February, is now likely to tackle a country grand national somewhere.
But there’s no doubt he loves Exeter and the mud at this time of year, and the stable has been in great form.
He was 23 lengths behind Favori De Sivola at Exeter in early December on his first run back, but last year lost his first start by 43 lengths at Lingfield, returning to the same course five weeks later on heavy to win after sustained support.
BETDAQ value 10.5 Don Herbager
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Doncaster (win 10)
BET 10pts win BOLD ENDEAVOUR
2.25 Doncaster (win 10, nap)
BET 3pts win MIDNIGHT GLANCE
2.40 Exeter (win 10)
BET 9pts win LOUPY COLLONGES
3.15 Exeter (win 20)
BET 2pts win DON HERBAGER
4.15 Exeter (win 10)
BET 10pts win PENTIRE HEAD
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Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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