WHAT ON EARTH! NAP NOSED OUT: Following Daqman’s naps is profitable with a staking plan, as his 30% strike rate for the whole of 2023 revealed. The daily best bets, currently running at 28% for the new year, are due to level up after yesterday’s nose defeat for Night On Earth. The photo-finish shows front-running Night On Earth fighting back after Level Up nabbed him near the line.
13.0 CHAMPION HURDLE GAMBLE: Daqman warns today of double drama for the Champion Hurdle, with Constitution Hill out of action until March and Willie Mullins determined to maintain a two-handed challenge. There’s a 13.0 BETDAQ SPORTSBOOK ante-post bet.
A SHOCK TO THE CONSTITUTION!
⭕ 3.30 Cheltenham, March 12 (Champion Hurdle) STATS: Dual winners and more are legion in this, going way back to the late Sixties and right up to 2022. How many names do you know?
Persian War (3), Bula (2), Comedy of Errors (2), Night Nurse (2), Monksfield (2), Sea Pigeon (2), See You Then (3), Istabraq (3), Hardy Eustace (2), Hurricane Fly (2), Buveur d’Air (2), Honeysuckle (2). The glory years go on.
But those who have backed the brilliant 2023 winner, Constitution Hill (pictured below), as a ‘good thing’ for back-to-back Champion Hurdle wins now face an anxious time before March 12.
Constitution Hill will head straight to Cheltenham, ruled out of Trials Day at the track on Saturday week, after failing a routine scope.
Meanwhile, two of his hottest rivals will take each other on for the Irish Champion Hurdle on February 4 at Leopardstown a week after Trials Day.
Constitution Hill remains odds on to beat State Man (around 4-1) a second time for the Cheltenham championship.
And, in a similar situation, State Man, who beat Honeysuckle in the Irish version last year, is odds on over stablemate Impaire Et Passe to land his own repeat at Leopardstown.
Impaire Et Passe seemed set for the Stayers Hurdle after State Man beat him more than three lengths for the Matheson Hurdle at Leopardstown on heavy ground over Christmas.
But their mutual trainer Mullins insists that Impaire Et Passe sticks to the Champion Hurdles route – Leopardstown then Cheltenham – at least for now.
The year younger gelding won the Ballymore last March and is the improver of the hurdles arena, raised 12lb for four races all told since then and with stamina his forte.
Betdaq Betting Exchange SPORTSBOOK Cheltenham Champion Hurdle ante-post 1.33 Constitution Hill, 4 State Man, 13 Impaire Et Passe. Daqman takes the 13 Impaire Et Passe.
WEATHER LATEST
⚠️ It’s a triple all-weather day following Plumpton and Chepstow not surprisingly being called off this morning. Daqman has selections from all three Tuesday cards.
Thursday’s meeting at Newcastle has already been called off with inspections announced for Newbury and Southwell on Wednesday.
CAN SEE THE CASE FOR OPTIK
⭕ 4.10 Wolverhampton The defection of Calcutta Dream (my original selection) opens the door for Optik which I had as the main danger.
David Simcock has his four-year-old out again quickly following his win on Saturday night over the longer 1m 4f trip and he can strike again under Hayley Turner over this shorter trip before the handicapper has his say.
Storm Valley could be the danger despite being a 0-11 maiden. There was a lot more promise from the filly on Boxing Day when she was a close up third to Have You A Minute over course and distance and arguably was an unlucky loser that day as she met trouble in running.
I’ll take the two for a WIN 10 return on Betdaq Betting Exchange.
TARSUS IS NO FLUKE
⭕ 5.10 Dundalk Tarsus brings the most experience into this finale and is well worth a try over six furlongs having stayed on to good effect over then minimum trip in his last two races. A win and a second in December sets the bar at quite a decent level for the lighter raced sorts to aim at.
His first win seemed to catch everyone out as he was sent off at 66/1 but proved that was no fluke with his most recent effort when going down by only half a length.
Ohailbhic should build on the promise of a course and distance fourth just before Christmas and looks the biggest danger to today’s nap.
MADE MY MIND UP
⭕ 5.30 Newcastle This is full of horses struggling to win – even more so given the only last time out winner Better is now a non runner!
Princess Alice was heading the morning Betdaq market but might be worth taking on. I think her starting handicap mark of 70 looks plenty high enough based on her three starts – I think she also probably needs a longer trip.
Star Mind makes plenty more appeal. She bolted home over this trip on her stable debut at Wolverhampton when making all the running and was then third over 6f at Chelmsford last time out.
The return to 7f looks a positive and she races off the same mark as Princess Alice despite (in my book at least) achieving a lot more so far. She’s also been mixing it a class 4 level and is dropping down to 5 tonight.
Leveret’s form here brings her into the reckoning but her effort last time out was very poor. Perhaps the first time cheekpieces were to blame and I see they are off now.
DAQMAN’S BETS
4.10 Wolverhampton (both win 10)
BET 5.0pts win OPTIK
BET 3.2pts win STORM VALLEY
5.10 Dundalk (win 10, nap)
BET 7.7pts win TARSUS
5.30 Newcastle (win 10)
BET 2.5pts win STAR MIND
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