DAQMAN JUST KEEPS ON WINNING: Daqman’s dream of a long weekend turned from big races back to his nap yesterday, a heart-stopping winner down the rail at Pontefract.
Monday: profit on the day 1.2 points
WON 5-4 DO I DREAM (nap)
Sunday: profit on the day 22.35 points
WON 10-3 EQUALITY (bull’s-eye bet)
Saturday: profit on the day 35.25 points
WON 7-1 SHARJAH (Scottish Champion Novice)
WON 18-1 MACDERMOTT (Scottish Grand National)
IN SEARCH OF BIG BETDAQ VALUE: Can Daqman combine BETDAQ big-race value with a nap today? He finds bets at 2.98, 5.2, 6.6, 15.5 and 22.0, as he explores and analyses the Epsom Spring Meeting.
BALDING BEST AT THIS MEETING
EPSOM FAVOURITES: poor except for the Blue Riband (2.45) and the Great Met (3.45); per race in the decade (time order): 1-10, 4-10, 1-10, 3-9, 0-5, 1-10.
JOCKEYS IN FORM: Saffie Osborne 10 winners in eight days (April 13-21), including a double at the big Musselburgh meeting on Sunday. Tom Marquand eight winners in 13 days
TRAINERFORM: Aidan O‘Brien is 0-4 in England this year. At this Epsom meeting, the decade’s leading trainers with runners are Andrew Balding 7, Ralph Beckett 2, Jim Boyle 2, Simon Dow 2, Richard Hannon 2, Roger Varian 2.
⭕ 2.45 Epsom (Blue Riband Trial) STATS: Cracksman (stall 2 in 2017) was the last great winner of this in a run of four in a row for John Gosden.
It’s a small field and the running here of Defiance, Bellum Justum and Feigning Madness instead of Sandown means that Saturday’s Classic Trial will also be a small field!
Draw: even with few runners, the lowest of the low helps; stalls 1, 2 or 3 have won the last seven seasons.
Aidan O’Brien is 44104 in the decade; his winner, Cape Of Good Hope (stall 1 in 2019), came to the race on a 106 rating. Chief Little Rock (out of 4) is on 107 but his route is Dante and Irish Derby, not Epsom.
As a 2yo, he liked to lead and was second in the Group-2 Beresford Stakes; the winner has failed to place at Group level before or since.
But ‘Cape’ was also runner-up in the Autumn Stakes at Newmarket to the subsequent Doncaster Futurity winner, Ancient Wisdom (Arabic Legend who didn’t like the soft ground finished behind).
Arabic Legend, who had been runner-up to a subsequent Group-3 winner who rates 108, has left Andrew Balding for the in-form Karl Burke (currently 5-8).
Balding runs his Sea The Stars colt Bellum Justum, given plenty of time as a juvenile but ended up a very professional winner of his maiden from a next-time-out scorer and may be the one with the speed on the ground. BETDAQ 15.5 this morning.
Ralph Beckett reckons dual winner Feigning Madness will need time to mature this year. The Royal Lodge sixth, Defiance (dam half-sister to a St Leger winner), may want further than today’s 10f.
JOHNSTON GIVES NOTICE TO QUIT
⭕ 3.20 Epsom (City And Suburban) The City And Sub and the Great Met were the big handicaps on the Derby turf, the Great Met now demoted to class 3 and distance reduced (at one time they had to run the first three furlongs of the Derby course backwards as part of a 2m 2f trip, starting at the winning post).
A poor City And Sub this year, deserted by Epsom stables who used to delight in running over the Newmarket yards, as Jim Boyle did last season.
Qitaal returned to Team Johnston a winner after leaving them as a winner two and a half years back. They alone know how to get the best out of him but do they know how to keep him at peak? BETDAQ 2.98.
Harry Eustace brings back Ziggy and Crystal Delight after a total of 623 days’ absence.
Dual Identity has also had a long absence after shooting up the weights, and Felix hasn’t won for more than three years.
Delete Ascot from Silent Film’s record and he has nothing to show in England since Sandown in June, 2021, and that win was over 7f.
SEEING STARS AT BETDAQ 22.0
⭕ 3.55 Epsom (Great Metropolitan Handicap) Eight out of 10 winners of this were favourite or 11-2 at most. Two outsiders won, probably because of cut in the ground in their years.
I was looking for Jim Boyle in the City And Sub but here he is in the Great Met, with lightly-weighted Western Stars, who is the right material for this job on a sound surface.
A 2m winner, he likes to lead and at this trip can do what Jim’s winner of this did in 2022: from a low stall, his mission was to be with the early pace and then kick on after a couple of furlongs. He did just that.
Splendent was 30113 on a sound surface last year, moving up the grades. The Goat has won only on the soft.
Champagne Piaff ran well on heavy the last day after nearly three years’ absence; bounce factor?
Betdaq Betting Exchange 6.6 Splendent, 22 Western Stars
⭕ 4.30 Epsom Andrew Balding has won this race three times in the last five years and has plenty of novices to choose from; his pick is Playtime (Betdaq Betting Exchange 5.2).
Playtime went straight to the big-time tracks last year at Ascot and Goodwood and, though second on soft, will do better on top of the ground; first run after gelding op.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.45 Epsom (win 10, win 15)
BET 12pts win CHIEF LITTLE ROCK
BET 1pt win and place BELLUM JUSTUM
(win 15.5 and two places 5.0)
3.20 Epsom (win 20, nap)
BET 10pts win QITAAL
3.55 Epsom (win-50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 2.4pts win and place WESTERN STARS
BET 5pts to win 28 SPLENDENT
4.30 Epsom (win 12)
BET 3pts win PLAYTIME
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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