THREE NAPS UP AMONG 11 DAQMAN WINNERS IN ONE WEEK: Daqman won with two bets out of three yesterday, including his nap at even money. It followed a sequence of success over five days up to Saturday, which all adds up to 11 winners in a week, three of them naps.
✔️ WON 1-1 UP FOR PAROL (nap)
✔️ WON 15-8 DOCPICKEDME
CHELTENHAM: DAY-BY-DAY STATS AND FATE OF FAVOURITES: Where do the Cheltenham winners come from? Which are best and worst races for favourites? Where would you logically look for lays? Here are the stats and facts for every day at the festival, matching Tuesday to Tuesday and so on every day this week for all next week’s events.
🆕 BREAKING NEWS: And it’s MEGA NEWS !!!!!
BETDAQ have announced they will be 0% COMMISSION AT THE CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL. For full details click below. Even more reason to check out DAQMAN’s advance stats today.
FESTIVAL STATS: RACE BY RACE
⚠️ Here’s Daqman’s stats-and-facts survey of every race at next week’s Cheltenham Festival, starting with Champion Hurdle day one week today, next Tuesday CHELTENHAM 0% COMMISSION ON BETDAQ. It’s your guide to ratings, trainers, form, age, weight and a special feature on favourites.
▪️ LAYS LOGIC: Favourites of 4-1 or shorter in Tuesday races which show poor results for the market leader – races 1 and 7 – lost seven times out of seven.
⭕ 1.20 Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 16 (Supreme Novices Hurdle) Only one outright favourite has won in 11 years but only one winner was bigger than 10-1. Winning ages: 5 and 6. Ratings (last six years): 155, 155, 144, 150, 154, 153.
Willie Mullins has won this six times among 12 Irish winners out of the last 20 (14 had raced in bumpers); 20 of the last 22 winners won the last day; eight out of the last 11 had won a Graded contest.
▪️ LAYS last five years: Min (2016), 2nd 15-8; Getabird (2018), 11th 7-4; Asterion Forlonge (2010), 4th 9-4 were favourites at 4-1 or shorter SP.
⭕ 1.55 Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 16 (Arkle Challenge Trophy) SP: Six odds-on favourites have won in the last 10 seasons. Winning ages: 6 and 7. Ratings: 166, 161, 170, 162, 151, 144.
Nicky Henderson has won three in the last nine years; Willie Mullins is four from six. Twelve out of 14 Arkle heroes had won or been placed over at least 19 furlongs.
Eight out of 10 had between three and five chase races, always in the first two.
▪️ Not a lays race.
⭕ 2.30 Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 16 (Ultima Handicap Chase) Only one successful SP favourite in the decade; but 5-1 to 11-1 traps eight of the 10 winners. Ages: 7 and 8 seven out of 10
Ratings: 146, 148, 155, 142, 151, 139. Trainers: David Pipe (2) and Jonjo O’Neill (2) since 2012.
Nine winners of the last 10 had run at a previous Cheltenham festival; eight out of 10 had won over at least 3m.
▪️ Not a lays race.
⭕ 3.05 Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 16 (Champion Hurdle) SP: Six winning favourites since 2010. Ages: 6 and 7 eight out of 11.
Ratings: 169, 162, 157, 169, 162, 159. Trainers: Henderson 5, Mullins 4 in the last 11 years (Ireland 6 out of 10). Nine winners out of 11 had won a Grade-1 hurdle.
▪️ Not a lays race.
⭕ 3.40 Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 16 (Mares’ Hurdle) SP: Six favourites scored out of 10. Ages: no winners older than 7 unless previous winner.
Ratings: 150, 154, 153, 147, 142, 158. Trainers: Willie Mullins 9 out of 12.
▪️ Not a lays race.
⭕ 4.15 Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 16 (Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle) Only one winning favourite in the decade with most winners at enormous prices: 40-1, 33-1 (three times) and 25-1 (twice) and that’s only since 2012. Ages: 4yo race.
Trainers: Paul Nicholls (3). Ratings: 131, 133, 134, 129, 139, 138 with winning weights from 10st 6lb to 11st 8lb.
▪️ Not a lays race.
⭕ 4.50 Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 16 (NH Challenge Cup) In the four years 2015 to 2018, this 4m amateurs chase produced a Grand National winner, second and third in Tiger Roll, Cause Of Causes and Rathvinden.
But last year the race was reduced to 3m 6f and no amateurs will be permitted to ride next week.
Three SP favourites won (2011-13) but none since. Ages: 7 and 8 six out of 10. Eight out of 11 had won over at least 3m. Ratings: 146, 143, 152, 150, 145, 142.
▪️ LAYS last five years: A Genie In A Bottle (2017) 5th at 4-1; Jury Road (2018) UR at 4-1; Ballyward (2019) fell at 9-4; Carefully Selected fell 10-11 (2020).
HENDERSON EARLY STRIKE
⭕ 12.30 Exeter Valsheda looks the nap on the Exeter card for Nicky Henderson in the 2m 7f opener.
At face value the form of his debut second at Doncaster only looked modest given he was beaten 29 lengths by The Golden Rebel who himself was beaten next time out.
However, the third from that race has won since and it just looks a confusing race for form – even freakish given the margin of the victory for the 33/1 winner.
What is certain is that Valsheda should know plenty more about the game today and is also likely to be suited by the step up in trip.
Also stepping up in trip is chief BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE rival Party Fuzz. The Kim Bailey trained runner stayed on well into third at Warwick last time out (when a 66/1 chance) but is also capable of throwing in some poor runs and doesn’t strike me as a reliable proposition at short odds.
CONSTABLE IN THE PICTURE
⭕ 2.05 Exeter The front two in the market here have big question marks against their names.
Amarillo Sky was well beaten on handicap debut and may need more relief than the 2lb he has received from the handicapper who looked too err on the side of caution on his first start in a handicap.
Paxman has been off the course for 742 days and is potentially a blot on the handicap but after two previous breaks has needed the run.
A better bet could be the reliable John Constable who could go well after his break and the form of his latest effort at Taunton could easily prove good enough.
THE NAME’S BOND
⭕ 7.10 Southwell Bond Angel is a course regular and a successful one at that with seven wins to his name.
He comes here without a win since January but the drop back to seven after four starts over a mile looks very much the positive.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points including place bet)
BET 5.7pts win (nap) VALSHEDA (12.30 Exeter)
BET 1pts win and 3.3pts place JOHN CONSTABLE (2.05 Exeter)
BET 2.3pts win BOND ANGEL (7.10 Southwell)
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