4-1 NAP FOR KNIFE-EDGE NICO: With the conditional jockeys’ title on a knife-edge, Nico De Boinville (two behind Sean Bowen) steered home an often-reluctant One Lucky Lady (WON 4-1) to land Daqman’s nap in a BETDAQ-sponsored hurdle at Kempton Park yesterday.
HE CAN NAIL HIS RIVAL AGAIN: Daqman goes in search of a follow-up nap at four meetings but finds poor cards on the Flat and firm ground over jumps. Finally, he relies on a winner-hungry De Boinville to land Rusty Nail at Exeter and get another one back on Bowen.
FRONT RUNNERS CAN SET IT UP FOR MIME DANCE
Join me in the search for another nap. Tipping winners right now is about as easy as guessing which politician is telling porkies, but somewhere among the Piglets evening at Brighton, there ought to be a best bet. Or do we have to revert to the jumpers?
BRIGHTON I’m checking the card out for something that loves firm ground, for a Brighton course-specialist, for a horse with a bit of class, for a trainer in hot form.
But when I find the sizzling stables, it’s a case of out of the frying-pan into the fire for Piglets punters in the Classified (6.15). The trade-paper Spotlight added up the total number of starts – 118 – for the 11 contenders and found they have won just two races between them.
So even those sizzling stables of Sean Curran (Lacock) and Robert Cowell (Roxy Hart) may have no more than a squeak.
That the scene opens in glorious sunshine (or so it is foretold) on that blasted heath called Brighton racecourse suggests that we ought to be on Young Jackie (5.15).
What better than a CD winner on firm ground, racing off a lower mark? Well, unfortunately, since then winning day, Young Jackie has been notorious for starting slowly and ruining her day and the punters’ day in the process.
She did consent to get away with the others last time and was running on well, fourth at Kempton, suggesting a possible return to form.
Attain has flopped four times at Brighton, and Malih is with a yard badly out of form. Mercury Magic, Roy Rocket and Tamujin are maidens after a total of 58 races. Edward Elgar won a desperate seller.
All of this makes Young Jackie’s 3.6 BETDAQ offer this morning the more palatable. But no way is she a nap. And no point looking deeper in the other class 5 and class 6 races at Brighton: there is no depth.
The class 4 (at 6.45) might, just might, produce a recognisable result. Mime Dance (Balding) and Dr Red Eye (Scott Dixon) are the only turf winners at this level.
Trainer Scott Dixon has failed to sustain his good winter run into the better weather, whereas Andrew Balding has been in cracking form. Mime Dance’s rivals are mainly front-runners and the four-year-old may be able to wait on them and score despite top-weight.
EXETER Wow! A class 3 at Exeter to open the meeting. And it seems to contain a progressive animal in Remind Me Later (2.00).
Party Palace and Sporting Boy have never won off their high marks, and Skylander has always needed some cut in the ground. Today’s surface is more like a road.
Nico De Boinville has two good chances of catching Sean Bowen. Rusty Nail (3.00) could bounce back to his summer form after a run back at Fontwell recently.
It’s a good clash of a conditional against a senior jockey.
If he can make a test of it, Nico should get Richard Johnson ‘at it’ on the long-term bridesmaid Kyles Faith, whose selling-hurdle success over shorter is surrounded by five seconds and some ‘duck-eggs.’
After De Boinville v Johnson, it’s Sean Bowen v Johnson in the bumper (4.35). but I think the senior jockey should bag this one, Kayf Willow for back-to-form Philip Hobbs having run up to a mare who did well in a Listed bumper at Aintree.
BERRY DAY’S BEST OUTSIDER AT 15.0 ON BETDAQ
KEMPTON Bold (2.50) is all the rage this morning but this will be his third consecutive race as favourite, with ‘good but could do better’ on the reports of his two maidens last season.
The son of Paco Boy called Prefect doesn’t appear to be of much interest at an easy 5.3 on BETDAQ but I’m attracted to the filly New Style (6.2 offers), who gets the allowances and is half-sister to a five-time Group-1 winner.
Outsider of the day could be Broughtons Berry (4.55) in her first handicap under apprentice-find Callum Shepherd: 15.0 on BETDAQ as I write.
LUDLOW We still haven’t got a nap but we’ve saved the best meeting until last, with three class-4 and two class-3 races.
The 3m handicap chase (2.40) is a cracker, with Benevolent and Guiding George neck and neck on their Fakenham form of last month. But it was a slow-run race and Benevolent has drifted like a lonely dog on a raft this morning, out to 11.0 and beyond.
Aerial (at 4.7 on BETDAQ this morning) hasn’t won outside the Points and hunter-chase sphere since 2013 but is down 20lb on his old form and still only nine.
Paul Nicholls is back to form with three out of four, still standing, after a quiet spell.
After scrutiny of a dozen possibilities, I’ve retuned to Exeter for the nap. I think Rusty Nail has a better chance – therefore value – than the 3.25 offers, against a trio of losers on ground he loves and with the stamina to boss them.
DAQMAN’S BETS (stakes 1 to 9 shows the strength of the bet; banker 10)
BET 6pts win REMIND ME LATER (2.00 Exeter)
BET 6pts win AERIAL (2.40 Ludlow)
BET 4pts win NEW STYLE (2.50 Kempton)
BET 8pts win (nap) RUSTY NAIL (3.00 Exeter)
BET 7pts win KAYF WILLOW (4.35 Exeter)
BET 1pt win and place BROUGHTONS BERRY (4.55 Kempton)
BET 4pts win YOUNG JACKIE (5.15 Brighton)
BET 6pts win MIME DANCE (6.45 Brighton)
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