LAYERS ARE BLUE AT DAQMAN BANKER: Daqman landed his banker nap at Kelso yesterday with Blue Hussar (WON 1-1). Today his selections range from an Exeter best bet at 2.5 to fun bets at Pontefract at 27.0 and 78.0 on BETDAQ.
BUT HE SEES RED AT BOOKIES’ ‘STEAL’: First he claims to know why the bookies think the Grand National was ‘magic’ on Saturday and why it’s ‘tragic’ what they’re doing to the punter. Stick with BETDAQ over Easter!
WIPE EASTER EGG OFF YOUR FACE
The Grand National retains all of its old magic. That’s the front-page Racing Post billing for Alice Treedown’s article today.
But in a piece in which Alastair condemns the word ’tragic’ as flogged to death, may I call into question the use of the word ‘magic’ as well, er.. flogged to death (Newtonian physics let you Down again, Alastair?)
Yes, it was a great race, and those who backed the winner may feel they had more fun than others. But I have found the real ‘magic’ in the race, and I can inform those winners that they had a lot less fun than they thought.
To do this conjuring trick, you take 50% or more of punters’ investments on the race, magic it away offshore and then use the Press to tell us all: you’ve never had it so good; millions won North of the border.
This is the time of year when – before I give you the big winner at Fairyhouse on Easter Monday– I warn you who’s going to make big profits from the holiday meetings and in particular the Irish Grand National.
The bookies, of course. Fairyhouse has always been notorious for its take-out but the National in particular has fleeced the unsuspecting punter.
Now, however, the Irish layers can look askance at my jibe and say: Is that so; and look who’s talking?
The Irish National had SP overrounds totaling 136 (twice) and 137 in the last decade – not too bad, like swallowing a hard boiled egg (with the shell on) – but they escalated to 148 twice and then 150% in 2013; that’s having to swallow the chicken and all!
But Liverpool on Saturday rose to the highest level I’ve seen, or better to say ‘sunk to the lowest level of greed’, in rinsing a captive audience world-wide. Here’s that ‘magic’ trick.
The English Grand National, which produced a Total SP of 149% in 2015 (that entire fowl thing rammed down your throat) escalated the take-out even further to a wholly unacceptable 155% in Saturday’s race.
This is xpressquid or donga-donga proportions – whatever those money lenders on TV are called – in the way of ‘interest’ slapped on for everybody who has the temerity to want some money back. Shame on you, bookies!
If you are reading this column, you should know the answer by now. Between the rock and the hard place is the smooth green turf of a level playing-field called BETDAQ. I remind you again of comparisons I made for Cheltenham and Aintree.
For Cheltenham, I tabulated BETDAQ morning percentages, race by race, against the resultant SP Totals. I found this for the opening day on the Tuesday:
BETDAQ 7 am 14 March: 102 101 105 101 104 104 105
The SP Totals 14 March: 122 134 130 119 121 122 135
Then, on the corresponding opening day at Aintree, I checked out the total percentages in the BETDAQ offers not in the morning but half an hour before the first race.
BETDAQ 1.15 pm 6 April: 102 102 102 101 104 107 109
SP Totals for the 6 April: 109 133 112 111 133 120 126
Morning offers on BETDAQ are clearly best – ALL morning and right through to just before the race – and SP overrounds get worse as the actually racing goes on.
The bookies answer is usually: ah, don’t forget that exchanges charge commission. But we’d have to levy up to 35% to match the bookies at Cheltenham and Aintree in several races but 50% and more for the Nationals of Liverpool and Fairyhouse! I know who I’ll be betting with over Easter, don’t you..
ROCK-SOLID NAP RUNS AT EXETER
2.10 Pontefract Here are my fun bets for today (‘magic’ if they win): Sunnua at 27.0 and Rockliffe 78.0.
Punters who feel justified in arguing that four-year-olds are beating older horses this season have this race as a bonus.
Four-year-olds have won both runnings, even though there has been a total of only six of that age group in the two races.
Both had low draws, like Sunnua (gate 1) and Rockliffe (in 4) in this renewal today. Sunnua’s stable has had five winners since Thursday, and Rockliffe’s two from its last five starters.
Low draw success in this type of contest at Ponty is around 66%. Oh, and the BETDAQ orange adds up to only 109% for a 15-horse field this morning.
4.10 Pontefract Magic Circle is a defector here, so I can’t say ‘this is where I came in.’ I hear that he runs in the Queen’s Prize on Saturday instead.
That’s a bit of a tip in itself. So is the form of Ralph Beckett’s yard, which won a Group-3 at Naas on Sunday. So remind me on Saturday, won’t you…
We’re left looking at Cote d’Azur, who climbed from class 6 to class 4 to class 2 last season, has had a run back and has William Buick booked.
The negatives? He’s drawn 13, has never won before July and could have August form with Final turned around at the weights.
Final is fit from AW and we know he stays, as a winner up to 1m 4f. So I recjkon we might see him chasing the leader (Imshivalla?), much in the manner of his Newcastle win, as opposed to his rear running in races wrapped around that one.
Inshivalla is 3-3 on this course and goes well fresh but that winning trio was all at a mile and his only success over 1m 2f came on the easier, switchback Epsom track.
He was easy to back this morning, drawn widest of all, but most significant for me is that he’s a six year old who has never won off today’s mark I can see him dropping back to a mile when his mark eases.
Cymro prefers cut in the ground but has won twice at class-2 level and csored first time of asking last season. I took 5.1 Final and 6.2 Cymro. I could afford it with those BETDAQ percentages on my side.
THE NAP Shantou Rock (2.50 Exeter) is 3-3 at Ludlow but the significance of that is the right-handed track.
He’s 100% going clockwise, whereas Wishfull Dreaming’s three wins have all come the ‘wrong’ w ay round, and he has to mentally recover from a fall on the last day. Richard Johnson certainly hasn’t. He takes the day off from Wishfull Dreaming.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 1pt win and place on each ROCKLIFFE and SUNNUA (2.10 Pontefract)
BET 12pts win (nap) SHANTOU ROCK (2.50 Exeter)
BET 5pts win on each CYMRO and FINAL (4.10 Pontefract)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
