SATURDAY’S BIG-RACE PREVIEW: Daqman expected to launch his Fortune Cookies this week but so many top-line chasers are involved in a pivotal Lancashire Chase on Saturday (previewed here) that the final 12 will be announced next week.
TODAY: Daqman dares to take on a short priced favourite at Lingfield and saves his nap for later in the afternoon at Fakenham.
JACOB RIDES BRAVEMANSGAME
⭕ 3.00 Haydock, Saturday (Lancashire Chase) This has the look of ‘chase of the season so far’, if only we could get it off the ground. ‘Ground’ is the operative word, currently heavy but not unraceable. In ratings order:
172 BRAVEMANSGAME This is shorter than Gold Cup distance which saw him fade final furlong behind Galopin des Champs, who is expected to reappear in Sunday’s John Durkan.
Bravemansgame hasn’t won since his King George. With Saturday in mind before a double attempt at Kempton on Boxing Day, he was outgunned on his reappearance, giving 6lb to Gentlemansgame in the Charlie Hall.
Daryl Jacob will ride Bravemansgame in this, as his usual rider, Harry Cobden, has a full book of rides for Paul Nicholls at Ascot. It’s a one-off situation, says Nicholls.
Cobden has ridden Bravemansgame in 17 consecutive races, of which nine have been wins, with total earnings of £555k.
172 SHISHKIN Not seen at his best at Cheltenham, has dropped from the 177 he achieved in the top grade on soft over around 2m in 2021-22.
He then beat Ahoy Senor (166) in the Aintree Bowl when that one lost a shoe. Shishkin survived the race with 173 but there’s some question of his dropping further down the official figures, if only by a pound.
166 PROTEKTORAT fifth in the Gold Cup, won this Lancashire Chase last year on soft, giving him form figures of 121 at the start of his last three seasons. So Saturday is pivotal.
160 CORACH RAMBLER followed up on second successive Ultima (soft) at Cheltenham with a brilliant victory in the Grand National. Kelso too sharp for him on his run back in October.
160 ROYALE PAGAILLE Second in this race in 2021 to subsequent Gold Cup winner, A Plus Tard, but then won the Peter Marsh at Haydock on soft for a second time.
157 MINELLA DRAMA Small-fields winner as a novice and in handicaps. Good form at Aintree the last twice; third in the Melling Chase to end last season and second in the Old Roan in October to start this term.
Betdaq Sportsbook 2.1 Bravemansgame, 2.25 Protektorat, 6 Shishkin, 8.5 Royal Pagaille, 9 Corach Rambler, 50 Minella Drama
ROSE LOOKS TOO THORNY
⭕ 12.35 Lingfield The biggest shock of the day was that the ground isn’t riding heavy in Surrey this afternoon given the recent downpours and Lingfield’s track record of testing conditions on the NH course.
Heva Rose looks far too short to me on the Betdaq Betting Exchange market. The one plus is the current form of her trainer Venetia Williams (10 winners from the last 25 runners) and a potentially lenient handicap mark of 91 for her first UK start over fences but there are also far too many counter negative factors.
Not least of which her last three starts over hurdles – she has been beaten 48, 37 and 26 lengths and looked to be really struggling to see out the trip. Given she is actually up in trip today it’s hard to see that helping.
She has shown ability over fences in her native France but also throws in a few clangers (over hurdles too).
If you want to take a short price, fair enough, but you’ll surely get much better chances at that kind of price in races where you have a few more positives lined up.
Presenting A Queen made a pleasing enough debut over fences at Wincanton last month when third – the problem though she was also last of three finishers and is again one I have stamina question marks about on testing ground.
Ya Know Yaseff looks over-priced. Most of her form has been on better ground (but so have most of her races) and she was a winner on good to soft at Newton Abbot. Trainer David Pipe has hit a little bit of form and there is limited downside with a WIN 20 stake.
HEY THERE, GEORGI GIRL
⭕ 2.30 Fakenham Georgi Girl stands out as the best bet of the day. The lightly raced Philip Hobbs/Johnson White trained runner was an easy winner on debut at Ludlow and has run well in three starts since including last time out on handicap debut at Hereford.
She’s kept on the same mark of 108 which looks fair enough and I think the recent spin will give her the fitness edge over chief market rival Pretending who ran well at Cheltenham in April in a much better race but has been off the track for the 215 days since.
TRADESMAN FOR PLACE IN HISTORY BOOKS
⭕ 6.00 Chelmsford Cricketers often get nervous when they are stuck in the nervous 90’s as they go in search of a century. For Hayley Turner she seems a little stuck on the nervous 999’s.
After getting beaten on what looked a penalty kick on Britannica she has failed to convert nine chances since but there’s every chance Tradesman can bring up the 1000 here.
The four-year-old is bidding for a hat-trick himself and goes well for Turner and over this trip. In a race full of suspect stayers he can shrug off his rise in the weights and follow up on his easy course success last time out and take his place in racing’s history books.
DAQMAN’S BETS
12.35 Lingfield (win 20)
BET 3.5pts win YA KNOW YASEFF
2.30 Fakenham (win 10, nap)
BET 6.2pts win GEORGI GIRL
6.00 Chelmsford (win 10)
BET 4.5pts win TRADESMAN
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