AUGUSTE RODIN WILL BE BACK IN 2024: Frankel’s grandson Ace Impact, the scintillating Arc winner now retired, was judged horse of the year at the Cartier Awards, ahead of dual Derby winner Auguste Rodin, ironically a son of Deep Impact. But he gets another chance at greater glory, with the news from Aidan O’Brien that he stays in training next year.
DAQMAN PLANS FOR THE JUMPS SEASON: Where to look for winners: big odds, small odds; big stakes, small stakes; where’s the value, which winners can you keep following; which ‘hidden horses’ might bounce back? Daqman has the answers in a seven-point betting plan.
DAQMAN’S 7-POINT BETTING PLAN
VALUE CHALLENGE: There’s no doubt the last Jumps season was the trickiest for six years (2017-18 when Daqman beat Pricewise 22-15). Daqman won again, of course, 22-12.
But the season depends on the weather. In good NH years, he’s scored 51 and 43, and showed his well-being last Saturday with a double in the Grand Sefton and Badger Beer chases, completing a 63 score to close the Flat.
The new Jumps season challenge between Daqman and Pricewise opens at Cheltenham on Friday (three-day meeting).
BULL’S-EYE BETS: As well as featuring in the Value Challenge, bets staked to win 50 points may be applied wherever a Daqman selection is a bigger offer than fits his ratings for the race but usually at weekends and major meetings.
STAKING PLAN: Outside the major meetings, on weekdays and low-key Sundays, the Daqman staking plan applies.
Points bet on his (usually three) selections are staked so that, where possible, just one winner covers your bets or gives you an edge.
You are playing in races of lower class which mostly means horses lacking the improvement or consistency to give any guarantee that they will reproduce their form in any given race.
NAPS and SUPERNAPS are stronger selections at any level. The current score this year is 100.
HIDDEN HORSES: Some low–class races – and even some quality races – may contain horses which have past form, connected or collateral form, or potential to do better than may seem to the case at first glance.
For reasons of bias (the draw or the going perhaps) they may have a better chance than the bare form; equally, horses seemingly to the fore may not be judged capable of reproducing past form so that the race may go to something lying in wait for just such a day.
LAYS LOGIC: The same pointers that may open the door to a hidden horse could militate against the favourite winning.
FORTUNE COOKIES are horses to follow which have a separate place in the scheme of things and a separate stake. Look out for the first list of the new season after Cheltenham at the weekend.
*ONE last tip: keep your Daq up! Check out the BETDAQ market early and watch for movements right up to the ‘off’ and even in running. More about that another time.
RUSSELL RAIDER A STYLISH BET
⭕ 1.20 and 3.05 Lingfield Oxygen (1.20) has dropped 17lb for his chasing debut after a wind op, and Burrows Park (3.05), also very well handicapped, and with a run only eight days ago, is a second market mover for Venetia Williams and Charlie Deutsch. BETDAQ 2.33 Oxygen; 2.4 Burrows Park.
⭕ 1.30 Huntingdon: Lucinda Russell makes a rare visit to Huntingdon, where Stylish Moment has his ground and age advantage, with most veterans’ chases won by 10-year-olds.
He won a similar event at Haydock, beating Special Acceptance comfortably, and he needed the run the last day at any price you like (SP 20-1), leading until he unseated as he faded three out.
Special Acceptance, still also aged 10, is 8lb better off with Stylish Moment but hasn’t run since the day they met at Haydock and trainer Paul Webber hasn’t scored since almost that long ago.
Innisfree Lad is a course winner, whose recent record is one success in a small field in slow time in 16 starts; but it does mean he’s dropped 20lb down the handicap.
Betdaq Betting Exchange this morning: 3.95 Innisfree Lad, 6.5 Special Acceptance, 7.1 Stylish Moment
EARLY SHOPPING FOR LAFAYETTE
⭕ 3.15 Huntingdon Paul Nicholls, with 11 winners in 14 days, brings his good form to a track where he has a near-25% strike rate.
The grey Inca De Lafayette won 13 lengths over Taunton winner Mamoon Star at Wincanton last month but has had another tweak to wind surgery during his autumn holiday and looks hard to beat, though there are two other recent winners in the field.
When Liverpool Knight won a class 2 at Market Rasen in September, he had to be ridden out to beat one who has done nothing for the form since.
Moveit Like Minnie is 12lb higher than when scoring here at Huntingdon in February but was back to form at Ludlow the last day, a grade lower and ridden out.
⭕ 3.55 Newcastle She’s The Danger, who looked in need of the run last time, was the overnight punt into 5-1 with bookies as all others in the market eased.
BETDAQ value: 3.45 Inca De Lafayette, 8.0 She’s The Danger
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.30 Huntingdon (win 12)
BET 2pts win STYLISH MOMENT
3.15 Huntingdon (win 12, nap)
BET 5pts win INCA LAFAYETTE
3.55 Newcastle (win 12)
BET 1.75pts win SHE’S THE DANGER
DAQ MULTIPLES
3 x 2pt win doubles, 1pt treble
OXYGEN (1.20 Lingfield)
BURROWS PARK (3.05 Lingfield)
INCA DE LAFAYETTE (3.15 Huntingdon)
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
