11.5 WINNER AS NAP EDGES IN: Deauville, Cologne, Brighton and Windsor. All came the same to Daqman yesterday in a euro-sweep of winners, including his second nap in two days, Knife Edge (WON 8-5), narrowly in the German 2,000 Guineas, and an 11.5 winner at Deauville. His successes were:
WON 115-10 Jemayel (Deauville)
WON 8-5 Knife Edge (Cologne, nap)
WON 4-5 Jule In The Crown (Windsor)
WON 8-13 Mister Sunshine (Brighton)
55 POINTS PROFIT IN ONE DAY: The four winners gave him three singles and a double up for a profit on the day of 55 points, bringing his feature bets to:
Bankers 3-7
Naps 2-2
Fortune Cookies 1-2
Lays (86%) 19 out of 22
Challenge: Daqman 30, Pricewise 9
TODAY: ABC Guide to Saturday’s Irish 2,000 Guineas at The Curragh. TOMORROW: the 1,000 Guineas (Sunday)
SATURDAY’S IRISH 2,000 ABC: (RAIN THREAT)
A Already won 7f-1m (9/10)
B Sired by a Group/Graded winner (10/10)
C At least four starts already (10/10)
D Had run in last 23 days (10/10)
E Trained Aidan O’Brien
X-factor: rated 116 plus
ABCDEX Air Force Blue
Odds-on favourite for the Newmarket 2,000 Guineas after a hat-trick of Group-1 wins in the two-year-old ‘classics’ of Phoenix, National Stakes and Dewhurst. But he flopped inexplicably, 12th of 13.
The only warning sign of concern in the Ballydoyle camp was application of a tongue-tie, so it will be interesting to see what ‘aids’ are applied on Saturday in his bid to avenge the Newmarket thrashing by Galileo Gold (Ribchester third). He ticks all the boxes but rain would be a damper, and could be the deciding factor of this first Irish Classic.
ABCDE Black Sea
Unlike Air Force Blue, Black Sea had a prep run, winning a modest renewal of the Leopardstown 2,000 Guineas trial on heavy ground.
Then he, too, flopped. It would have opened more doors for him had he got involved in the 10-furlong Dante Stakes but he finished 9th of 12 to Wings Of Desire. Won’t mind rain.
ABCDX Galileo Gold
So was the Grand Criterium winner, Galileo Gold, handed the English Guineas on a plate because of Air Force Blue’s flop on the day?
It certainly didn’t look a vintage Guineas, and I resisted adding him to my Fortune Cookies of future Group winners at that time, but suggesting I might go for him, if gifted one more race. This one; the Irish guineas. Softish ground not a problem but heavy would be.
ABCD Awtaad
Seemingly a tad short on class, having won only the Listed Tetrarch Stakes. He did beat the favourite that day, Blue De Vega; he will like the summer ground and looks a solid performer without problems of temperament. But the handicapper left him on 106.
ABCD Air Vice Marshal
Officially 17lb inferior to the Air Force Blue (the one we thought we knew) before the Newmarket Guineas but ran a big race to finish fourth after a long absence, quite a way clear of his disappointing stablemate. Doesn’t want rain.
ABCD Blue De Vega
Had Black Sea four lengths behind in third when winning a Group 3 last backed but was beaten favourite on his reappearance in the Tetrarch, albeit giving weight to the winner, Awtaaf.
ABC True Solitaire
Beaten by Black Sea in the Leopardstown trial but that was on heavy ground, and his last run of 2015 on good ground now looks interesting: touched off a short-head in the Beresford by Port Dougls, who forced a similar photo with US Army Ranger in the Chester Vase.
BCD Ribchester
Appreciated a sound surface when third in the Newmarket 2,000 Guineas to Galileo gold. Plenty of stamina in his pedigree but stablemate Birchwood flopped in the French Guineas yesterday.
BCD Round Two
Gentleman Jim Bolger made a sluggish start to the season until producing Moonlight Magic to take the Leopardstown Derby Trial. But Round Two, who disappointed when fancied for the 2015 Coventry, was 6th of 7 behind Awtaad in the Tetrarch earlier this month.
B Smash Williams
Maybe this one is the Bolger colt for this mile. Not much to show as yet but the dam’s sister won the Curragh 1,000 Guineas.
D Stenographer
A third Bolger probable. Looked progressive when going down a head to Black Sea in the Leopardstown 2,000 Guineas Trial and will better show his speed on a sound surface.
WILL YOU RISK YOUR ACORNS ON FADILLAH?
From mighty Oaks you’re left with little acorns. Punters plunging on the fillies’ Epsom Classic have burnt their fingers badly in the last 24 hours.
After the 5-2 shot So Mi Dar was announced a non-runner (lame), they woke up this morning to see the fancied Willie Haggas outsider Fadillah running instead in a class-4 Nottingham handicap today!
Fadillah is ‘too feminine’ to be risked yet, particularly on the gradients of Epsom, says W.H., currently struggling for winners on 1-28. He’s trained five consecutive losing favourites, and I smell a lay coming on.
4.20 Nottingham Fadillah could romp this but the so called ‘well advertised’ form from her Haydock win has come at this same class-4 level in a very poor contest at Chester over a different trip.
You can’t lose much on an odds-on lay (1.66 in the BETDAQ green this morning, as I write), with six other winners in the race who could improve against her, as some three-year-old fillies are wont, suddenly, to do.
I’m pledged to try to maintain a 90% strike-rate on my lays, with a level loss for easy accountability. But that still allows me to flout the sword of Damocles now and then.
Incidentally, I shall repeat my rules of betting and transparency next week and put them on permanent display, because I still get the odd bit of mail, asking – for instance – what is my level-stakes profit?
May it suffice at this moment, ‘Nigel’, to ask you if you are willing to have a straight pound on Fadillah at 1.4 in the BETDAQ orange this morning and a straight pound on Ruby Wednesday (5.20 Nottingham) at 13.5 for the sake of your level-stakes fad?
You can have them with me. There may well be 27p (for your pound) of my money for Fadillah and £12.50 (to match your next pound) for Ruby Wednesday floating somewhere in the orange juice, and you are very welcome.
Bombilate looked huge at 9.2 in the Fadillah race. She will enjoy the step up in trip and was very game over shorter on the last day.
FIRST-DAY DEMONSTRATION AT NEWCASTLE
2.35 and 4.10 Newcastle The opening day of the new AW track on Tapeta has a level-3 handicap, in which you’d be lucky to find class acts on Tapeta; too soon, surely. But check these out!
Turbine (10.0 in BETDAQ at 4.10), third in a level 2 at Ascot on the last day, launched his career with a very easy win on Tapeta at Wolverhampton in November. That gives him a head start while others are feeling their way on this surface.
Earlier, in a class 4, Demonstration (9.6 offers seen in the 2.35) – two wins from three Wolver starts – could benefit from a drop down in grade of two levels.
5.20 Nottingham I’m napping The Major at Nottingham, with forecast-favourite Hermarna a non-runner and Gunman drifting likely a lonely dog on a raft, out to 7.4, well over my betting weir.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points except the lay)
BET 2.3pts win DEMONSTRATION (2.35 Newcastle)
BET 2pts win and place TURBINE (4.10 Newcastle)
DOUBLE WHAMMY: LAY to lose 10pts FADILLAH, and BET 2.4pts win BOMBILATE (4.20 Notingham)
BET 8.5pts win (nap) THE MAJOR, and 1.6pts win and place RUBY WEDNESDAY (5.20 Nottingham)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles and 1pt win treble Hakeem (2.10 Nottingham), Bombilate (4.20 Nottingham), Bank Of Gibraltar (4.30 Lingfield)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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