NECK ON THE LINE ROBS No. 4: After a hat-trick of naps, including a 4-1 winner, Daqman’s best bet was beaten in the last few yards at Salisbury yesterday at another big price. Mark Hopkins (2nd 5-1) went down a neck on the line. Hard to take after losing two big-race photo-finishes (see Beaten Short-Head Twice).
HOT SPOTS FOR CHAMPIONS DAY: Daqman today presents facts and stats, race by race, for Champions Day at Ascot on Saturday, with Hot Spots and warnings (see Start With Rules).
BEATEN A SHORT-HEAD TWICE.. AT 38.0 AND 23.0!
* DAQMAN 23 September: MASTER TRAINER ELSWORTH TOP OF THE WORLD
* DAQMAN 10 October: 23.0 FOX RATES THE CUNNING-PUNTERS’ PICK
Don’t rub it in! It’s history. You’ll make me sound like a mug punter in a betting-shop. That’s always Daqman’s reply when he has a hard-luck story.
But this one is such a bed of nails (a brace of them?) that we just had to put it on record, reproducing his Cambridgeshire and Cesarewitch headlines. The results:
2ND 38.0 Cambridgeshire: MASTER THE WORLD (SP 25-1 from 38.0 BETDAQ). Beaten a short-head.
2ND 23.0 Cesarewitch: ORIENTAL FOX (SP 7-1 from 23.0 BETDAQ). Beaten a short-head.
Both Daqman selections were superb value on BETDAQ, as ever. Says Daqman, ruefully: ’I think I made out a good case for place betting!’ He admits to missing out, personally, on ‘four figures’ in each race.
The 2015 Flat season comes to an end at Doncaster on November 7, but Doncaster has an earlier meeting on Saturday week, with a prime candidate for revealing the 2016 Derby winner in the Racing Post Trophy.
This Saturday at Ascot, the six-race Champions Day card is the last major meeting of the season in Europe.
Can Daqman produce more winners from the hat in his race with Pricewise of the Racing Post? His target has always been 100 for the season.
The current score is Daqman 97, Pricewise 15, as Daqman makes an early check on the stats and pointers to each race:
HOT SPOTS: START WITH RULES ON CHAMPIONS DAY
Hot Spots! Check out these facts and stats – and the horses they point up – which could mean the difference between profit and loss on the Saturday Champions Day card at Ascot.
12.45 Ascot (Long Distance Cup) The Irish St Leger (and its Trial) and the Ascot Gold Cup are the recent stepping-stones to winning this, a path followed this year by Forgotten Rules, who won the trophy last season.
Forgotten Rules 2014 success was on heavy ground, yet he finished a close Gold Cup third on a very fast surface this summer. Has raced only seven times in his entire life,
1.20 Ascot (Sprint) The ground on Saturday could be the decider when Muhaarar and Twilight Son – both protecting 2015 hat-tricks – finally meet here.
Muhaarar’s Group successes have come on good and firm ground (form on soft since debut: 30) and Twilight Son’s unbeaten run of five has been capped at York and in the Haydock Sprint on good-to-soft.
1.55 Ascot (Fillies and Mares) Hoping the ground will stay on the easy side is Jessica Harrington, whose Bocca Baciata (kiss on the mouth) has form figures of 1131 when yielding or soft appear in the going return; 43003 when they don’t.
2.30 Ascot (Queen Elizabeth 11 Stakes) Whether trained in England, Ireland or France (one from each, in fact), the last three winners of this had won or been placed in the Prix du Moulin or the Prix Jacques le Marois. Or both!
The one-two in this year’s Jacques le Marois – Esoterique and Territories – are among the half dozen that front the market for Saturday’s QE11.
3.05 Ascot (Champion Stakes) No three-year-old has scored in this since New Approach (2008). In the interim, winners of the Epsom Derby, Irish Derby and King George have all been thrashed. So is this really a match between Jack Hobbs and Found?
3.45 Ascot (Balmoral Handicap) David Elsworth wants Ryan Moore to ride Master The World in this one, as he seeks some recompense for a narrow Cambridgeshire defeat. So do I! So do I! In that order.
14.0 DEMORA MAY TRY TO MAKE ALL THE RUNNING
2.20 Leicester Trainers are creatures of habit. If something works well for them, they take the same path again.
In 2013, Charles Hills won this race with Atab, after giving the filly a quiet debut run at Salisbury. Today he saddles Ancient World after a quiet debut run at Salisbury.
3.20 Leicester Back-to-back class-2 races put Leicester on the betting map today, and Hillbilly Boy could be the starter to this two-course feast.
At the beginning of 2014, he climbed from class-6 seller to success in class 5 and class 4, and capped it all by taking a class-3 at Newmarket.
This year he’s given class 2 his best shot, second in a Ladbrokes Handicap at Lingfield, and third in the Ayr Silver Cup over a furlong short of his best trip, separated by a long absence. He’s clearly back on track.
At the same time, I felt that – at 6.8 bar one – a lot of horses had to yet to be backed in this race. Even if only one or two were, I thought the resultant market forces might ease Hillbilly Boy.
Why wait. I staked at 3.4 when Hillbilly Boy was 3.1. Not for very much. But you don’t have to. If my bait was taken, I’d get the price plus a reduction in commission to 2%. Win, win!
3.50 Leicester Maljaa is up a stone since the first leg of his hat-trick in August. He may not have stopped winning yet, and is odds-on this morning, though has to give 11lb to Demora.
Demora, who has to be caught fresh, reappears here after a holiday, 7lb lower than in the Spring, and seems sure to go off in front: 14.0 on BETDAQ suggests a sure-fire bet and lay.
He’s a huge price in an eight-runner race, so I hope the whole field stands its ground; I had a third at 14-1 yesterday but only seven ran.
5.20 Leicester Hughie Morrison rarely resorts to blinkers/visor on his runners but, when he does, they have a 44% strike rate (4-9), so Sweet Selection (12.5 on BETDAQ early mouse) is worth a pound here.
IDAHO CAN REEL OFF AN O’BRIEN HAT-TRICK
3.35 The Curragh The last two-year-old race of the last day of the
season at The Curragh is not wasted by Aidan O’Brien.
He’s won this in the last two years with a subsequent Irish 2,000 Guineas winner and a Queen’s Vase runner-up. So we must have a final fling on Highland Reel’s brother, Idaho: 3.1 on BETDAQ early mouse.
BETDAQ BETS (staked 1 to 9 for strength; 10 would be a banker)
BET 1pt win and place ANCIENT WORLD (2.20 Leicester)
BET 6pts win HILLBILLY BOY (3.20 Leicester)
BET 8pts win (nap) IDAHO (3.35 The Curragh)
BET 2pts win and place DEMORA (3.50 Leicester)
BET 2pts win and place SWEET SLECTION (5.20 Leicester)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 2 x 3pt win doubles Idaho (3.35 The Curragh) with Maljaa and Demora (3.50 Leicester)
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