GRAND NATIONAL: READ ALL ABOUT IT: Daqman promises ’I gotta horse’ for this year’s Grand National on Saturday, after tipping two winners so far in his time for BETDAQ Tips, both at 33-1. Here’s what he features for you in the continued countdown to the great race:
- Daqman’s personal history of the race
- ABC stats and facts guide
- Top trainers in the last 10 years
- Top jockeys in the last 10 years
- The horses who’ve been there before
- The safest jumpers
- Analysis of every Aintree race (Thursday-Saturday)
- More big ton-up and bull’s-eye bets
- BETDAQ value like his 20-1 Lincoln winner
- Feature-race hits that have beaten Pricewise 409-171
WHO HAS NATIONAL KNOW-HOW
HORSES Those who’ve been there before and are back to try again. 2016 order in: 2 The Last Samuri, 6 Ucello Conti, 7 Vieux Lion Rouge, 13 Pendra, 15 Just A Par, pu Saint Are, pu Wonderful Charm, ur Ballynagour
The 2015 result: 2 Saint Are, 8 Cause Of Causes, fell Gas Line Boy, pu Lord Windermere. Just one from 2014: 8 Raz De Maree
TRAINERS Nicky Henderson leads Paul Nicholls by £76,601 for the trainers’ title. Nicholls has won the Grand National before (Neptune Collonges 2012); Henderson hasn’t and he looks modestly represented on Saturday by a rank outsider, Cocktails At Dawn.
Cocktails maybe, but no champagne surely for Nicky. Paul Nicholls could saddle five: Saphir Du Rheu (Sam Twiston-Davies), Vicente (Brian Hughes), Le Mercurey (Sean Bowen), Just A Par (Harry Cobden) and Wonderful Charm (Katie Walsh).
Of other previous National winners, Mouse Morris has Rogue Angel, and Thunder And Rose, and Jonjo O Neill sends out More Of That.
David Pipe may be mob handed: Vieux Lion Rouge, Ballynagour, Le Vaticane and possibly Doctor Harper, who is first reserve.
Other previous winners are Gordon Elliott (Ucello Conti, Cause Of Causes and Roi des Francs), Willie Mullins (Pleasant Company), Nigel Twiston Davies (Blaklion), and Venetia Williams (Houblon des Obeaux, Tenor Nivernais))
JOCKEYS Form of jockeys in the first four for the last 10 years show Leighton Aspell as the only dual winner, but Paul Moloney as the man with most finishes in the first four. Form figures (first four only) in brackets:
L Aspell (11), L Treadwell (13), D Jacob (41), R Power (14), D Mullins (1), P Moloney (434244), Sam Waley-Cohen (24), D Bass (2), P Brennan (2), P Carberry (2), R Johnson (2), T O Brien (2), D O’Regan (2), B Geraghty (344), D J Casey (3) N Scholfield (3), R Dunne (3), (R Walsh (3).
TIPSTER SEE BELOW
THE RACE THAT MADE ME ‘WELL TO DO’
It’s been a grand race for me! I’ve always loved the National and the feeling seems to be mutual. Here’s my best-bets history which also serves as a brief survey of the race itself.
The Derby has been kind (notably with Troy taken at 40-1) but the Grand National was the race that put jam on my bread as a professional punter and paid off the mortgage.
WON 100-9 Highland Wedding I was just an eager lad trying to break into journalism when I dared approach trainer Toby Balding after his horse won a race at Nottingham.
‘Will he run in the National?” I nervously begged, thinking it might be a foolish question. There was no other Press around and it wasn’t a defining race. But ‘he won’t just run; he’ll win,’ declared the genial Tobes, emphatically.
‘Win?” I gasped. ‘Win!’ he replied, not moving a facial muscle from a look somewhere between confident and adamant. As if he was stating a plain fact. And the horse concurred, as if it really was that simple.
I didn’t know then that I was talking to one of the great characters of racing. A jovial approach disguised a dedicated professional who did as much for the sport as it could ever do for him. As a man of warmth and generosity, world class.
WON 14-1 Well To Do Quite the opposite of Tobes, trainer Tim Forster, while a very nice man, was a Mr Gloomy, a worrier but a skilled practitioner of his training art, who gave me the first of two great stable wins.
I had him at 40-1 in a Spring Double with 33-1 the Lincoln Handicap winner, Sovereign Bill, so I was pacing up and down more than Tim. We needn’t have worried.
I had backed Sovereign Bill after hosting ‘a day at the races’ for a newspaper competiton winner. She was happy but unassuming about her day out; afterwards thanked us and decided to break her silence with a surprise move:
‘I’m the owner of Sovereign Bill,’ she said, ‘and it will win the Lincoln.’
WON 9-1 Red Rum I was guest of the Australian Prime Minister, Gough Whitlam, at Australia House, and sat alongside the smartest punter I ever met, Murray Dwyer.
Imagine Aussies of great voice and huge gambling instinct in full cry as their home hope, Crisp, went clear, while a little voice at the back (guilty, as charged!) whispered his pennyworth: ‘Come on, Red Rum!’
The rest, as they say, is history. I didn’t expect to be invited back! But Red Rum (two more wins) and Murray became the best friends a man could have. For character and generosity, world class
WON 13-2 L’Escargot The most underrated horse in jumps racing history; perhaps not liked because he beat Red Rum in the National (and also won the Cheltenham Gold Cup).
He was an ugly duckling, not in the same league for looks as Arkle, who was still fresh in the memory. So he was always allowed to win at a price. Trained by the great Dan Moore; ridden by Tommy Carberry of the incredible dynasty.
WON 50-1 Last Suspect I was guest at Liverpool for the day with Irish trainer, Mouse Morris, and his owner Anne Daly, whose son was on Suspect at 101-1 on the Tote. I had 66.
Why such a big price? Well, he was another trained by gloomy Tim Forster, and this time he had a right to morning jitters before the race. Suspect was suspect.
You could never be sure which of his races he would run! But the fine horseman Hywel Davies got on with him well and they kidded each other all the way home.
WON 7-1 Earth Summit I had small bets on other winners of the great race but my next killing was to take 40-1 this one, after reading the weather forecast of heavy ground for Aintree.
He was owned by an old friend in the PR and journalism game, Nigel Payne. Not that Nigel said a word to me. Arrange the words ’granny’ ‘wouldn’t’ ‘his’ and ‘tell’ in Eric Morecambe order.
WON 20-1 Bindaree Nigel Twiston-Davies had proved his training ability with stayers through such as Earth Summit, ridden by Carl Llewellyn. Now here was the young Jim Culloty steering me home another ‘Twiston’ winner.
WON 16-1 Montys Pass My tipping team was working for At The Races. James, Debbie and I spent the winter buried in the form-book, determined to get the National winner and beat the other tipsters in the ATR form league.
It was really down to James. Monty literally became a password in the office. We talked about him every day, and it took months for the adrenalin to drain away after he won.
WON 7-1 Hedgehunter I backed two or three that year. Hedgehunter was one you just couldn’t leave out for his jumping and stamina.
He was made for the race, and his trainer-jockey combo of Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh were becoming legend.
WON 33-1 Silver Birch My first winning tip in the race for BETDAQ. Who was the trainer daring to encroach on the Mullins preserve, one day to challenge him head to head? Name of Gordon Elliott.
Silver Birch had run in a banks race, which could be a tip for Saturday. Let’s wait and see if it provides another winner in the cause..
WON 33-1 Rule The World That was last year for Mouse Morris. ‘Won 33-1 from 50.0 on BETDAQ’. I wish I had a pound for the number of times I write that phrase to show the amazing value in the BETDAQ market on a race like this.
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: Come on then, Daqman, if you’re so smart: tell us the secret of finding the winner. The answer is too simple to be believed.
Find the horse that jumps and stays the best and has it firmly stamped on his CV by a proven trainer for the race, like Tim Forster was and Twiston-Davies is. And make sure you stick to your opinion and ignore the Press.
The Aussies used to say ‘back it down to your bootlaces’, meaning leave just the leather left in case you have to walk home from the track!
These days, you can just slide down the keyboard in a cursory way and empty your wallet without feeling a thing!
It’s the greatest race on earth, because you can back one winner and bask in a level-stakes profit for 20 years. Two winners and you’re well to do!
WINNERS: The above list is in chronological order: 1969, 1972, 1973, 1975, 1985, 1998, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2016.
MORE BETDAQ VALUE (the ones that got away): 39.0 about Balthazar King (2nd 14-1 in 2014); 20.0 about Sunnyhill Boy (2nd 16-1 in 2012 and in the same year 60.0 about Seabass 3rd 8-1 favourite).
HOPEFULLY THE RIGHT HENDERSON ONE
It’s a funny old game. Not the racing (for once) but the weather. At Kempton it’s good and down the road (well 170 miles to be accurate) at Newton Abbot their meeting has been abandoned due to a waterlogged track.
It leaves just two meetings but with Aintree on the horizon it is the calm before the storm (hopefully metaphorically and not meteorologically speaking that is).
2.30 Kempton Nicky Henderson saddles two of the five runners in the novices’ chase at Kempton and jockey bookings suggest Laurium (Nico de Boinville) is preferred to Bivouac (Noel Fehily).
Bivouac was a three times winner over hurdles but his form tailed off when pitched in at the deep end and was pulled up in both the Lanzarote Hurdle here and the Martin Pipe at the Cheltenham Festival last season.
He finished second at Exeter on his chasing debut and was then sent off 1/7 favourite at Leicester and made mighty hard work of beating 25/1 chance Spoilt Rotten by half a length – giving the money buyers an almighty scare in the process.
Furthermore, he has shown his best form on soft ground and is very much one to take on.
The obvious alternative is stable companion Laurium who won on today’s good ground at Exeter in fine style last November and although soundly beaten in two subsequent starts at Cheltenham and Ascot they were in much better quality races and this is much more his level.
Jimmy The Jetplane also gets his ground but was abjectly poor at Catterick last time out in January and comes back after a break.
5.25 Southwell On a quiet day I’ll also have an interest on Eurato. Young apprentice Finley Marsh steered him home over course and distance a fortnight ago to beat Brigadoon (pair finishing a mile clear) and a subsequent 2lb raise in the weights keeps me as a believer.
Despite the small field it’s competitive and the biggest danger might well be Ominotago who was a very impressive winner over the shorter 1m 3f trip on her only previous visit here.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BACK 9pts win (nap) LAURIUM (2.30 Kempton)
BACK 5pts win EURATO (5.25 Southwell)
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