DAQMAN DOUBLE-STRIKE ON ONE HORSE AS 11.0 SHOT WINS TWICE: Daqman made the most of more big-value offers on BETDAQ yesterday, with three winning bets, two of them (win and place) on the 11.0 shot Nacho last night at Wolverhampton, with the day already paid for by Dark Spec in the afternoon.
Monday: 25 points profit on the day
WON 17-2 NACHO ( from 11.0 on BETDAQ plus separate place bet)
WON 16-5 DARK SPEC (from 4.8 on BETDAQ)
FUTURE STARS ARE CENTRE STAGE AT NEWMARKET THIS WEEKEND: Daqman tears up the Longchamp formbook and hopes to find the champions of 2022 in the final two-year-olds tests at Newmarket this week, as he completes his portfolio of Races That Create The Stars.
IGNORE MUD WINNERS EXCEPT IN MUD
Do they mean very much? The big two Arc-day two-year-olds tests were run in heavy ground on Sunday, with the favourites both out of the first two.
Last year’s one-two in the Prix Marcel Boussac, the criterium for fillies, were never even placed again. The third, Rougir, made a future mark only on the same Longchamp heavy.. and for that you had to wait for the race after Sunday’s Arc, the Opera, run so nearly in the same conditions a year on.
Similar story after last year’s heavy-ground Prix Lagardere, the colts’ equivalent: the one-two haven’t won another race.
So how can you follow Zellie and Times Square (Sunday’s Marcel Boussac one-two)? How can you stand by Angel Bleu and Noble Truth (Lagardere)? Answer: you can’t, except when it’s very heavy again.
We’ve now reached the tail end of my two-year-olds list (Races That Create The Stars in the Daqman Archive). I’ll be ready to complete it and prepare my ratings for 2022 after Newmarket’s contribution this weekend.
Friday, Oh So Sharp Stakes (2.25 Newmarket) Usually produces the nearly horses, like Andre Fabre’s filly Miss France (2013), runner-up without winning in a sequence of Group races.
Will Fabre be tempted to bring over Raclette on Friday, after pulling her out of the Marcel Boussac because of the bad ground? Watch also for Gavin Cromwell’s decision on Moyglare and Park Stakes placed Sunset Shiraz.
Incidentally, the 2020 Oh So Sharp winner, Saffron Beach, again came good at the backend, beating Mother Earth in Saturday’s Sun Chariot Stakes.
Friday, Fillies’ Mile (3.35 Newmarket) Likely odds-on favourite for the Fillies’ Mile is Inspiral, unbeaten in three starts, including in the May Hill at Doncaster.
Winners of this Mile in recent years include two from Aidan O’Brien’s hat-trick of 2014-16, Minding and Rhododendron.
IS THIS THE ANSWER TO NATIVE TRAIL?
Saturday, Dewhurst Stakes (2.55 Newmarket) This is the one! Nijinsky, Mill Reef, Grundy, The Minstrel and Generous set the trend of the Dewhurst-Derby double.
In recent years it has not been done since New Approach (2008) but Frankel, Churchill and Dawn Approach have all followed up in the 2,000 Guineas, while St Mark’s Basilica, the 2020 Dewhurst star, has surpassed or equalled some of those famous names without winning either one!
St Mark’s very own version of horse-of-the-year 2021 took in French Guineas and Derby, Coral-Eclipse and Irish Champion Stakes instead.
Saturday’s Dewhurst is likely to have an odds-on favourite in Curragh National Stakes winner Native Trail, the field potentially depleted because Angel Bleu (decision later this week) and Noble Truth went to Longchamp instead.
But he will face a late entry from supplemented Straight Answer (Ger Lyons), who is 2-2 and ran away with the Listed Blenheim Stakes at Fairyhouse (on firm).
Straight Answer is by the champion 2yos’ sire, Kodiac, with the dam’s side going back to 2,000 Guineas winner of 1993, Zafonic, who had won the Dewhurst four lengths.
BRIGHTON QUESTION MARKS
⭕ It’s soft ground at Brighton and I really don’t want to be playing at short odds on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE about finding out whether Baileysgutfeeling handles it in the 1.30. Couple to that he’s been a beaten favourite in two of his last three starts and I’m happy to just watch him win without investing.
You also have to ask the same questions about Temur Khan in the finale over 1m 4f at 4.25pm. He arrives in form having won two of his last three, goes well for Mollie Philips but is totally unproven on the ground from 39 starts. The only time he has raced on soft he was last of seven at Lingfield!
It’s a similar case with Global Wonder.
The problem with this race is that if you’re looking to get the front two beaten there’s not much left – especially with the defection of three non runners – two of them quite significant in form terms.
Both these favourites may win of course, and that’s to be expected but over the course of a year you can back many horses at those kind of odds with far stronger credentials.
DEPUTY NO STAND IN
⭕ 4.32 Leicester This should give Deputy a good chance to follow up on his Lingfield win which came on soft ground. ‘Soft’ at Lingfield can translate as ‘heavy’ elsewhere so there are no issues on the ground front nor the stepping back in trip for the first time to six furlongs. A 2lb rise in the weights looks lenient enough for the Charlie Fellowes trained runner.
Coco Bear is dangerous in that both of his wins have come on good to soft but he is unproven on anything as testing as this and Shanghai Rock gets his ground at last but you would like to see him coming into this in slightly better form.
JOHN CLARE ANOTHER FOR PAM SLY
⭕ 5.40 Leicester Pam Sly did us a favour yesterday with Dark Spec winning well at Pontefract and I’m sticking with the stable today with John Clare here.
He’s only 2-25 but both those wins have come over course and distance and one of them was on today’s heavy ground.
He’s been dropped 2lb by the handicapper so is actually a 1lb better than his heavy ground C&D win and is preferred to May Night who has yet to win on the turf and the (Andrew Balding) stable have just gone a bit quiet.
MORE FROM QUILTED
⭕ 6.30 Kempton I thought there might be more to come from Quilted on her handicap debut. It’s taken three starts for the penny to drop but she looked quite smart when winning a novice event at Thirsk, pulling nicely clear from Titanium Moon and the 1/5 favourite Bartzella back in third.
Bartzella slipped during the race so we can’t take the form too literally but even so it was nice to see the William Haggas trained runner come out again to win at Ascot last week.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points)
BET 7.1pts win (nap) DEPUTY (4.32 Leicester)
BET 2.4pts win JOHN CLARE (5.40 Leicester)
BET 4.3pts win QUILTED (6.30 Kempton)
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
