5-DAY BRITISH CHAMPIONS GUIDE: Daqman continues his day-by-day form and facts guide to the five championship races at Ascot on Saturday. They are:
⭕ TODAY: 1.50 Saturday, British Champions Sprint
⭕ TOMORROW: 2.25 Saturday, British Champions Fillies And Mares
⭕ THURSDAY: 3.05 Saturday, Queen Elizabeth 11 Stakes, British Champions Mile.
⭕ FRIDAY: 3.45 Saturday, Champion Stakes, British Champions Middle Distance.
*See Monday’s Daqman: British Champions Long Distance Cup.
🌧️ UPDATE: Heavy ground is possible with rain forecast for Ascot. Non-runners: 1.15 Courage Mon Ami, 3.45 Continuous.
KINROSS IS 6f WINNER ONLY ONCE
⭕ 1.50 Ascot, Saturday (British Champions Sprint, 6f) This so-called champions sprint is rarely that. With the exception of 2015, when Muhaarar came to win the race on a Group-1 four-timer, most winners in the decade had been Group 3 players at best until Kinross.
Kinross raised the bar last year after taking the Group-1 Foret at Longchamp. Even so: was he, is he, a champion ‘sprinter’ as such?
The Foret was his third consecutive strike over 7f and this year, after 6f defeats in the Jubilee at Royal Ascot and then the July Cup, he came back to form with a 7f double at Goodwood and York.
In fact, would you believe, his Champions Sprint win a year ago was his sole success at the trip with an overall 1-6 strike rate. Curiouser and curiouser, said Alice
If you want more evidence that this is a low-grade sprint by Group standards, look at the SPs since 2017: they include 10-1, 16-1, 28-1 and 33-1.
Just two clear favourites have scored in the decade and, surprise surprise, they were Muhaarar and Kinross.
Muhaarar was also a 7f winner in the Greenham trial for the Classics and a Guineas was connections first thought, but he was unplaced in the French 2,000. Rivals to Kinross on Saturday include:
SHAQUILLE: Group-1 wins in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot and then the July Cup, part of a 26lb rise from handicap level. Last of 16 in the Haydock Sprint Cup, so must bounce back. No senior races beyond 6f.
MILL STREAM: Group-3 winning three-year-old. No senior races beyond 6f. Shaquille (120) and Mill Stream (111) are the top-rated second-season animals.
SANDRINE: No senior success over 6f in three starts (000); Group-2 winner at 7f twice and beaten only a length by Kinross at York in August.
SPYCATCHER: Group-3 success at Deauville but beaten only a short-head there in the Group-1 Prix Maurice de Gheest (6.5f).
Group 3 at York was also Swingalong’s sole Group success. Vadream one Group 3 at Newmarket; Rohaan one Group 3 at Ascot; Believing one Group 3 at Chantilly.
ART POWER: has won Group 2 and Group 3 races in the last two years but only at the Curragh. Khaadem has won at all three Group levels but needs firm ground
Betdaq Betting Exchange ⭕ 1.15 race Kyprios 2.14, Trueshan 3.2, Coltrane 6.2, Sweet William 8.8, Trawlerman 14, Tower Of London 23.
⭕ 1.50 race Kinross 3.2, Shaquille 4.9, Miss Stream 7.8, Sandrine 9.8, Spycatcher 10, Vadream 10, Swingalong 16, Rohaan 14, Believing 16, Art Power 19
HOUSE PARTY
⭕ 3.25 Leicester Heritage House is narrowly preferred to Adaay In Devon in what is likely to be a highly tactical three runner affair.
James Fanshawe trains Heritage House and he has his string in great current form with five winners from the last 22 runners including a double at Kempton last night.
On figures she has 9lb to find with Adaay In Devon but it might not be as simple given the pair ran their best/worst races to date respectively last time out.
Heritage House ran a cracker at Doncaster on her first try on soft ground (same as today) when second to Chic Colombine in a class 2 whereas Adaay In Devon was beaten nearly 10 lengths at Goodwood bringing an abrupt end to her hat-trick sequence.
Normally I would be more than happy to forgive a horse a poor run at quirky Goodwood but in her case one of her previous wins came there so the course can’t really be a factor.
The danger, as always, is forgetting the outsider of three. In this case it’s Lordsbridge Flyer who can only improve for her pleasing Haydock soft ground debut but given the other pair are mixing it at class 2 level the bar is set fairly high.
LOW NOT SLOW
⭕ 5.10 Leicester The handicapper has given Lowton a real chance of adding another course and distance win to his name.
He won here on his second start when the ground was also soft and has held his form pretty well in three starts since including a really solid effort at York last time out when fourth in what looked a more competitive class 3.
Off the same mark of 87 and on more testing ground he gets the Tuesday nap vote.
RIBENA THE CLUE IN THE LAST
⭕ 8.30 Newcastle Remember the days of six race cards? Then it was seven, then eight and now NINE at Newcastle tonight. From 4.20pm to 8.30pm and eight of them handicaps. It even makes me yearn for a seller which you don’t seem to see many of these days?
I was tempted to swerve the whole card – come on Newcastle give us a fighting chance and stage a few more races – but I couldn’t resist Blackcurrent in the finale at 8.30.
He arrives at the Toon in the best form and I think it’s just a case of him repeating his recent course efforts (over both 5f and 6f) to collect here.
He’s usually pacey from the stalls and won a bunch finish here last month over tonight’s 6f trip before going down by just half a length over 5f at the end of September. The handicapper has raised him a pound for that effort but he can’t really be more punitive given the fine margins that he is dealing with.
Paula Muir is his regular rider and takes off 3lb.
Main danger is probably the maiden Aclaim To Fame who put in a slightly better performance on her first start for Robert Walford at Catterick last time out. Her two runs on the all-weather to date have been modest but she is one of the few here that can realistically be expected to show some improved form.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
3.25 Leicester (win 10)
BET 5.7pts win HERITAGE HOUSE
5.10 Leicester (win 10, nap)
BET 5.7pts win LOWTON
8.30 Newcastle (win 10)
BET 3.3pts win BLACKCURRENT
PLUS: 1pt win treble above three
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