4-1 BEE BUT 16-1 STING IS SECOND: Daqman went hunting good-odds winners at Windsor yesterday, based on his usual in-depth research of horse and trainer form. His opening shot drew clear at 4-1, after being available at 6.8 on BETDAQ. The second was achingly close, Pixeleen (2nd 16-1), returning only the place bet after being caught in the last few yards.
WON 4-1 Quebee (from 6.8 BETDAQ)
2nd 16-1 Pixeleen (btn half a length)
TOMORROW: EXCLUSIVE DERBY ABC: He promises another tilt or two at the layers tomorrow, plus his famous stats-and-facts ABC guide to Saturday’s Derby.
TODAY: MORE HOT HEADLINES: Today Daqman continues his Derby countdown, with a check on the key races and the value in the ante-post markets. Plus the new way to bet on BETDAQ:
MASSAAT DERBY FORM HAS EDGE ON DANTE
CLASSIC PUNTER-FRIENDLY VALUE BETTING
X MARKS THE SPOT FOR A GREAT BETDAQ SP
MASSAAT DERBY FORM HAS EDGE ON DANTE
Classic tests are best. The Newmarket 2,000 Guineas outpoints the Dante in providing the Epsom Derby winner over the decade. Two winners, two seconds and a third in the HQ Classic scored at Epsom.
Just two Dante winners and one runner-up have gone on to take the Derby in the same 10 years.
Two Racing Post Trophy and two Dewhurst winners have also done the double. The Chester Vase winner has taken the Derby just the once in the decade. Ditto the Prix Greffulhe and the Curragh two-year-old test, the Beresford Stakes.
Six winners have scored with a rating going into the race of 116-121; eight of the last nine had raced two to four times.
I’ll be checking these stats out, horse by horse, for an ABC Guide tomorrow. Meanwhile, here are the colts which have taken similar paths going into the race.|
DANTE 1st Wings Of Desire, now rated 114 after three races; 2nd Deauville 114 after five races.
DEWHURST 2nd Massaat, now rated 116 after four races.
GUINEAS 2nd Massaat, now rated 116 after four races.
CHESTER VASE 1st US Army Ranger, rating estimate from collateral form: 106+
PRIX GREFFULHE 1st Cloth Of Stars, rating estimate from collateral form 116
BERESFORD STAKES 1st Port Douglas, now rated 111 after six races.
The 2015 Racing Post Trophy winner, Marcel, and the Dewhurst star, Air Force Blue, are both back numbers this season so far.
CLASSIC PUNTER-FRIENDLY VALUE BETTING
It’s a Magic market, as usual. This morning’s BETDAQ Derby orange is 108% overround. Compare that to the 123 and 125% final (SP) markets of the last two Derbys.
Or if you are still not convinced of the pain in your wallet from bookmakers’ take-outs, check out the final SP percentage totals for the Liverpool Grand National of the last two seasons: 149 and 165%.
Can you conceive of it! The bookies took in £165 for every £100 they paid out, whereas BETDAQ is today a near-level playing-field by comparison, returning £100 for every £108 invested.
Incidentally, Moonlight Magic is one of the Derby horses which is a better bet on BETDAQ: 13.5 offers alongside 10-1 fixed odds by two big firms.
Deauville, 10-1 and 12-1 with the bookies, is 14.5 in the BETDAQ ante-post orange. Port Douglas, 12-1 with two major layers, is a huge 17.5.
X MARKS THE SPOT FOR A GREAT BETDAQ SP
The choice is yours on a daily basis. Match the offers on the punter-friendly exchange and know you are getting big value. Even if your offer is NOT matched, you could still be on a winner.
Every day now, you can also elect to bet at a special SP. TheExchange Starting Price – called XSP – is available on UK and Irish horse-racing for win markets on the exchange.
When you place your bet, you can now choose for any that are to be placed at the XSP at the start of the event.
XSP odds are calculated when the race starts based on the bets that have been matched in the exchange.
BETDAQ customers, exclusively, can either Back or Lay at the XSP odds set, with a liquidity guarantee subject to certain limits per customer.
JADAAYIL COULD BE A CLASS AHEAD
2.00 Leicester I’m told that there’s a decent one here. Thunder Snow is a well related son of Helmet in the opening Maiden.
Bin Suroor has had five wins from eight two year olds so far this year and this could make it six from nine. We’ve obviously got nothing to go by but the word of mouth and the breeding but this one is well touted as a smart performer at home.
John Gosden also introduces a nicely bred colt by Oasis Dream while Hugo Palmer takes the once race Evergate. This could be a nice Maiden to watch.
3.30 Leicester I find it very difficult to look beyond the jolly here.
Charlie Hills’s Jadaayil appears to be very well handicapped on the form of her Maiden win at Newmarket in April. That form has been franked a couple of times since in what looked like a solid race. A mark of 84 was possibly quite lenient by the Handicapper.
The Godolphin runner, another Bin Suroor inmate, could improve from her Maiden but that looks a much weaker race on paper.
4.20 Redcar Again there’s one that’s tough to desert.
The top weight, Just Us Two is lightly raced but twice a winner already. He was unlucky not to go closer at Thirsk last time when meeting with plenty of traffic as he came with a late run. Looks to be still on a nice mark and Jamie Spencer could be able to find a little more improvement in him.
Bashiba is the obvious danger but doesn’t always but his best foot forward. It’s hard to know where he sits in the Handicap but going on his last run over course and distance, he could go close again.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Staked 1-9pts on strength, 10pts for a Banker)
BET 4pts win THUNDER SNOW (2.00 Leicester)
BET 9pts win (nap) JADAAYIL (3.30 Leicester)
BET 4pts win JUST US TWO (4.20 Redcar)
£25 IN FREE BETS
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
