DAQMAN GAMBLE MAKES HASH OF IT: The value was there but it just didn’t happen for Daqman’s outsider Daghash (3rd 4-1 from 11.0 on BETDAQ) at Pontefract last night. If Daqman was down in the mouth, trainer Stuart Kittow was well down on his petrol, after sending the horse on a 500-mile round trip from Devon.
FOLLOW YOUR FAVOURITE STABLES: Yesterday Daqman twisted your arm to keep records of any tipster you follow. Today he suggests that you do the same for trainers. Start with a small ‘stable of stables’ until you know their every move, says Daqman. Now here’s why it’s ‘your job to know how good a trainer is..’
YOUR JOB TO KNOW HOW GOOD A TRAINER IS
My first lesson wasn’t too painful. I hadn’t actually put my money down, though I was all set to back a 2,000 Guineas winner for the Derby. So was the world and his wife; the beast was a hot favourite.
I was working alongside a pro punter, who operated in America, Asia and Australia, and I eagerly told him about it, hoping to impress on the first day of his visit to England.
But he was way ahead of me, having had five years’ form-books sent to his office to study in advance of his season in England.
‘No chance,’ said yer man, ‘that colt can’t win.’
‘Why the heck not?’
‘Because the trainer has never trained a winner beyond a mile.’
Collapse of eager young punter. And he was right. The colt ‘failed to stay.’ In fact, if you went to the paddock and checked out that stable’s horses, they were almost always miler types.
In any case, he was a trainer who excelled with two-year-olds, and didn’t improve many older horses; the opposite of Sir Michael Stoute, who can turn a handicapper into a Group-1 winner. Stoute is the horse whisperer of English racing.
Follow trainers with this in mind. What are they good at? What type of animal can you expect to see in his yard and how are they produced to win?
In fact, remember yesterday, the questions you should ask yourself as you assess a tipster (and assess your own betting)? With very little modification, you should ask the same questions about trainers:
What is his (or her) level-stakes profit?
How many winners to runners does he get?
What percentage of short prices to outsiders?
What quality/distance of race is he good at?
At which track does he get his winners?
What’s his best time of year?
Which jockey does he use when he wins?
Do his animals generally do better on good ground or soft?
Is he a careful trainer, placing his horses well, or does he go in for blanket coverage?
If you know anything about racing at all, you would quickly chalk up Dermot Weld for Galway and Mark Johnston for Goodwood.
You could follow James Fanshawe as a master placer of his horses; whereas Johnston and Richard Fahey go in for blanket coverage.
If you look at the returns for each racetrack, you will also see very poor strike-rates for some, particularly for certain trainers local to that track. They are ‘training’ their horses on the racecourse.
It’s particularly important to know whether a trainer is in or out of form. He could have the best track record in the country but, if everything’s going wrong at home, he will blow your wallet at his favourite course.
Trainers are creatures of habit. Follow the smoke trail as thy lay down their plans (sometimes made a year ahead, like Dean Ivory’s successful plot to win the Epsom Dash) and watch a horse suddenly catch fire.
As I said yesterday, if you follow me (Daqman), Shamrock, Proform and Market Movers – and you certainly should – you will get strong indicators as to a trainers habits and whether he’s likely to press the ‘go’ button on the day.
BETDAQ ANTE-POST PASSES ASCOT TEST
There will be another day for Massaat. The Derby distance was far too far, and trainer Owen Burrows will be keen to prove that his Guineas second was no flash in the pan.
If you fancy Massaat for the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot next Tuesday, the 7-1 and 8-1 with bookmakers looks ludicrous alongside 16.0 in the BETDAQ ante-post orange.
In the Queen Anne Stakes on the same day, Time Test is as low as 5-1 and 6-1 with the fixed-odds layers but the BETDAQ orange has, at best, double the odds on offer at 13.0 this morning.
But I’ve been hoist by my own petard in the Kings Stand Stakes. Having put Cotai Glory in my Fortune Cookies for the race, I find I can get only 18.0 at best ante-post with BETDAQ but up to 25-1 with bookies.
Biggest offers on BETDAQ for the Commonwealth Cup, in which Quiet Reflection and Acapulco share favouritism, is Gifted Master.
Bookmakers go 10-1 almost everywhere, 9-1 in a place, but there’s 22.0 in the ante-post orange.
THE R.O.I OF GOING INTO A BETTING SHOP
Don’t even go there. The pleasure of home-alone exchange betting with punter-friendly BETDAQ was brought home to me when I ventured into a betting shop the other day.
I was trying to watch an important race for me (my broadband was down at home) and I prepared to strain my ears above the racket of what we used to fondly call ‘fruit machines’, now referred to as the Statutory Three.
The screen was split into two sections, one smaller section showing a dog race. Horses and dogs were running simultaneously when the incredible hulk loomed across my field of vision, shouting: Go on number 3!
With polite sarcasm, I inquired: Horses or dogs?
At this, he thrust a betting slip in my face and yelled: I won free hundred quid, ‘ere, mate!
It was no friendly Wallace addressing his mate Gromit, more a mad dog unmasking a tipster and demanding: What’s your ROI for the last eight years!
My neighbour, head down, swilling a 20p betting-shop tea-bag, declared quietly, when the hubbub died down: ‘He’s always winning £300. Funny thing, though; he never seems to collect it.’
There was some return on my time invested after all…
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20pts unless stated)
BET 5pts win BOMBILATE, and 1.6pts win and place SUNSCAPE at 13.0 (4.15 Salisbury)
BET 6pts win REBECCA ROCKS at 4.3 (5.50 Lingfield)
BET 10pts win (nap) RAINBOW PRIDE (8.20 Lingfield)
LAY to lose 10pts PANDAR and BET 6pts win DOCTOR BONG (5.45 Salisbury)
£25 IN FREE BETS
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
