LOSERS? ‘NOT NEVER’ WHEN DAQMAN’S IN FORM! Daqman completed 11 winners in a week on Sunday. Now he’s on a two-a-day binge, and all good prices, the best of them 3-1 Not Never.
Sunday
WON 9-4 DIMPLE
WON 6-4 TRIXSTER
Monday
WON 3-1 NOT NEVER
WON 9-4 GLOBAL RACING
Says Daqman: ‘I was confident of a hat-trick yesterday with a hot Willie Mullins favourite in the last at Punchestown but Shamrock outgunned me with a 16-lengths winner which must be the nap of the year so far at 11-2. Check him out at Fairyhouse today.’
BIG-RACE PREVIEW: A BALLY GOOD BETTING RACE: Daqman is hoping that Saturday’s Peter Marsh will hold up as a betting race. If so, he’s likely to follow the stats with two horses of a similar name. Bally well better spell them right!
STATS POINT TO HAYDOCK LIGHTWEIGHT
I’ve got a bally good race for you! With Ascot’s Clarence House Stakes reduced to four runners, punters will be hoping for a strong field at Haydock for the Peter Marsh Stakes on Saturday.
The Clarence House is really a case of whether you dare back Un De Sceaux to bring down Altior. Last time they met in the Tingle Creek, champion-chaser Altior made it 11 wins in a row by four lengths, and now gets a 175 rating, so he’s likely to be long odds-on.
Expect the Peter Marsh winner to come from around 40lb lower! At least, four of the last five winners have carried 10st 6lb or less from ratings of 137, 135 and 139 respectively from 2014 to 2016 and 135 again last year.
The only interruption to the flow of winning lightweights was the 2017 winner. Just imagine we could get 4-1 SP about him (5.9 on BETDAQ). He’d be odds on in the race now…
His name? Bristol De Mai, who was a 154 that day when only six years old, but has won twice more at Haydock since in the Lancashire Chase – firstly beating Cue Card, then in November stopping the Gold Cup winner, Native River – and now has a rating of 173.
There are no young bloods of his ilk in the Peter Marsh on Saturday so I would expect another lightweight triumph from between 135 and 139 ratings. Step forward Ballydine (135) and Ballyarthur (137).
Ballydine won a class-2 at Sandown Last February and was back to form on the last day at Newbury, beaten narrowly over Saturday’s kind of trip.
Ballyarthur is from the Bristol De Mai team of Nigel Twiston-Davies. He was a length off Daklondike in the Tommy Whittle at Haydock, and will be 3lb better off if both turn out again.
LINA AT LINGFIELD WORTH THE WAIT
2.40 Lingfield Clayton looks a little short here. He looked unlucky not to win here last time out when making serious errors at the third and second last before rallying on the run-in. It wasn’t the greatest contest and it was run on ground much softer than it will be today when ‘good’ actually makes the going description which is a rarity for a Lingfield jumps card!
Backing unlucky horses can often be the road to ruin, but in his case you have to factor in that it’s likely he made those blunders in the closing stages because he was getting tired having attempted to make all.
Off the same handicap mark today it might well be a similar story. Certainly, I can’t be getting involved at around 3.3 on BETDAQ.
A better proposition might be Shaw’s Cross who looks to have improved since joining the Paul Henderson stable and followed up his Sandown handicap win with another good effort at Wincanton last time out when second to Midnight Midge. It suggests to me that he is capable of winning off his revised mark.
3.40 Lingfield A competitive handicap hurdle concludes the card where you need to focus as much on the riders as the horses, as always is the case with amateur riders.
Lucy Turner is certainly towards the top of the better riders here, she has ridden five winners so far this season and looks to have an outstanding chance here on the lightly raced Arqalina from the red hot stable of Venetia Williams.
Arqalina showed her first sign of form at Hereford last time out when third to Uno Mas and she still looks progressive – certainly off this handicap mark.
Jimmy Bell was fourth in the Hereford race, so I’m looking for a good run from that one in the preceding 3.10 race to boost the form but in a race full of largely exposed sorts Arqalina looks worth waiting for at Lingfield.
6.45 Kempton A tricky six runner handicap over the six furlong trip may be best left to Busby who usually runs his race and looked a little unlucky at Chelmsford last time out when third.
Compas Scoobie is up 3lb for a neck win at Wolverhampton and is 1/1 at Kempton but the handicapper might just now have him in his grip.
A bigger danger may come from Fivetwoeight who was a close up third over the minimum trip here last time.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 6.0pts win SHAW’S CROSS (2.40 Lingfield)
BET 11.1pts win (nap) ARQALINA (3.40 Lingfield)
BET 8.5pts win BUSBY (6.45 Kempton)
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