LOOK FOR THE GAME-CHANGING RACES: Where do the winners come from? How strong is the race you have just seen and those you will watch tomorrow? Daqman puts it all together and checks out races as they happen, starting today with last week’s Grand Sefton and moving on to preview the Cheltenham three-day meeting starting on Friday. It’s a game-changer series for the new season and it’s backed up by horses to follow next week.
CHELTENHAM INVASION: 57 Irish horses are entered for Cheltenham at the weekend: Friday preview tomorrow.
TUESDAY: Three bets from Daqman with an early nap in the opener at Lingfield.
HOLD YOUR AINTREE HORSES!
Grand National fever has started already. The trigger was Saturday’s Grand Sefton Chase at Aintree, run over the big National fences.
Peter Bowen, trainer of the winner, Mac Tottie, immediately announced plans to aim the eight-year-old at the National next April.
I wish him luck but, though it seems to be a big boost for a chaser simply to be able to jump those big fences, the 2m 5f trip is no measure of a National winner.
No winner of the Aintree marathon had won the Grand Sefton in the last decade. No second, no third and no fourth.
Six of the 10 Grand Sefton stars have run in 12 Aintree Nationals, but none has finished in the first four.
2019 Hogans Heights was 12th in the Grand National.
2017 Gas Line Boy has the best record of recent Sefton winners; he’s been 5th and 7th
2015 Bennys Mist tried twice: 12th and unseated rider
2014 Poole Master finished the course, 10th, but also pulled up
2013 Rebel Rebellion twice finished the course, 9th and 15th, but also pulled up in a third.
2012 Little Josh subsequently finished 7th and also fell.
Peter Bowen himself knows that, just like the Grand Sefton, Topham Trophy success over the National fences is also no guarantee of winning the big one. It is also run over 2m 5f.
2007 Dunbrody Millar Bowen’s first Topham winner subsequently fell in the Becher Chase and pulled up in his second Topham.
2010-12 Always Waining won the Topham three years running, then finally had a crack at the Grand National: 10th.
HARA TO HURRY HOME
⭕ 1.07 Lingfield There can’t be many trainers that improve an ex-Willie Mullins trained runner but Hara Kiri shouldn’t need to improve on what he has shown so far in Ireland to land the opening bumper on Lingfield’s NH card.
After a debut third at Gowran (for which he was sent off at 4/9) he was again sent off favourite again at Punchestown when beaten by Crowns Major in a huge field. The winner has gone on to prove himself quite useful with a win on the flat at Galway and last time out over hurdles at Cork when winning a maiden hurdle by seven lengths.
Hara Kiri has since joined Alex Hales yard and should account for Nicky Henderson’s Quickbuck who, although second last time out at Worcester, it looked to be in a very modest event.
Debutant Silverhill Stamp is interesting on pedigree and fairly strong in early BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE trading and might prove more of a danger than Fortyfive West who might find this trip on the sharp side having had placed form in two Irish points.
PROMISE IT’S CLONDAW
⭕ 3.37 Lingfield A wide open handicap chase and it looks a recovery mission for many with Dorking Lad, Allardyce and Animal all beaten favourites last time out.
Alkopop was also in that list and the forecast favourite but is now a non runner.
The winner may come elsewhere though with the Jonjo O’Neill trained Clondaw Promise who was probably better value for his 24 length defeat at Uttoxeter last time out than the bare facts suggest.
He was in the process of running a big race before clattering the second last and losing all momentum gifting the race to the favourite No No Maestro. The handicapper has generously dropped him another 2lb and he can give O’Neill another winner as the stable look forward to three days of Cheltenham at the end of the week (Daqman’s previews start tomorrow).
LET’S TOAST BAILEYS
⭕ 4.20 Newcastle Baileys Accolade is two heads away from being a dual winner – a game of fine margins and can finally lose her maiden tag in this company.
The Mark Johnston trained runner has done little wrong – just been unlucky to have been collared close home on both her last two starts. She is likely to make the running again here and will hopefully get the job done.
Simon and Ed Crisford’s Philosophy is another that likes to race prominently but her Catterick third was in a modest race and more is needed.
Different Look finished stone last of 10 on debut at Thirsk despite being fancied in the market and might prove better than that over a shorter trip.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points)
BET 8.2pts win (nap) HARA KIRI (1.07 Lingfield)
BET 3.1pts win CLONDAW PROMISE (3.37 Lingfield)
BET 4.7pts win BAILEYS ACCOLADE (4.20 Newcastle)
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
