DAQMAN PLUNDERS BLACKBEARD GOLD: After his 33-1 shot was beaten a neck in the 1,000 Guineas on Sunday, Daqman started the new week with a winning nap, Blackbeard, at the Curragh yesterday.
Monday: Profit on the day: 7.9 points.
WON 11-10 BLACKBEARD (nap)
TRIALS FORTNIGHT STARTS TOMORROW: Beware overhyped races as well as horses. That’s Daqman’s message today as he prepares for two weeks of Derby and Oaks trials. He’ll be making Classic judgments in See How They Won and building his Fortune Cookies as he goes. Expect regular updates.
HOW HYPE CAN BLOW YOUR CASH
It’s Fortune Cookies time. But two who will not be on my list of horses to follow are the winners of the sprints – one handicap, one Group 3 – in the undercard to the 2,000 Guineas on Saturday.
In the huff and the puff and the hype they called a preview to those races, ITV told its audience to watch out for future sprint winners of handicaps and Group races, particularly at Royal Ascot.
But to those of you who marked down Blackrod and Khaadem as your personal fortune cookies for the season, it might be worth checking out what really happened with winners of those two races in seven previous years:
The handicap The 2015 winner scored at Ascot, though not until the autumn; he was 2-7 that year but the rest of his career brought 26 consecutive defeats.
The 2016 winner had 20 losing races in the next two years for just one class-3 handicap strike at Windsor.
The 2017 winner, Mr Lupton, was much vaunted by the Press after his win but lost his next 10 races, five as favourite, until he scored again.
The 2018 winner bagged the Stewards Cup. He lost all 11 of his other races but we’ll give credit where credit is due.
The 2019 ‘star’ scored 1-10 at odds-on (AW). The 2020 race was lost in the shutdown and 2021 was not in the usual programme sequence.
Palace House Stakes Previous winners of the Group 3 last had a big hitter in 2016 with Profitable, who in May and June landed the Temple Stakes and the Kings Stand Stakes but failed to score after.
The 2017 Palace House threw up Marsha, who was always on the premises in the big sprints but the mare was expensive to follow, adding only the Nunthorpe in her remaining career.
After her 2018 triumph, Mabs Cross won just once more in England: the same race the following year. The 2020 hero of the Palace House never raced again and last year’s ran just one more time in England, joint-favourite but only sixth of 10.
* Tomorrow: The queen of Fortune Cookies
DOCUMENTS POINT TO THESIS
⭕ 2.50 Lingfield Thesis is taken to go ‘321’ for Harry & Roger Charlton in this novice event.
Racing in the Juddmonte colours, Thesis already has enough form in the book to land this and that’s before you factor in likely further improvement on just his third start.
After a promising third on debut at Sandown he finished runner-up to My Prospero at Newbury in a maiden that historically works out well more often than not. The stable form of the Charlton team gets a tentative tick with two winners from their last 14 runners mitigated by the fact they’ve had some big priced runners recently.
Awaal shaped with promise for the Crisfords on debut at Wolverhampton and can only improve but on the limited evidence we have to date that form isn’t in the same league as that of Thesis.
Similar comments apply to Vazire who showed promise on debut here over the shorter seven furlongs but she didn’t look the easiest of rides – although that could simply be down to being the first day at school.
IN THE BLACK WITH ALABLAQ
⭕ 4.35 Lingfield Alablaq looks a fair bet on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE to go back to back after his win over course and distance last time out when just getting home by a short head. That was a reward for his recent consistency and the handicapper (quite rightly) has only nudged him up a pound.
He’s up against some seriously exposed rivals who appear to be struggling off their current marks. Swiss Pride is now 12 runs without a win and although his latest effort was more encouraging the current form of trainer Roger Teal (0 from 15) is not.
Lilkian is closely matched with Alablaq on Wolverhampton form last month when the pair were 3rd and 2nd respectively and looks the danger again.
ARRANGING THE GROUND
⭕ 7.10 Wetherby A three runner race at Wetherby wouldn’t have been my first starting point today but I am finding it hard to get away from Arrange who enjoys a fitness edge over his two rivals (204 and 213 days) and should relish the forecast good to firm ground.
Evaluation has struggled on ground this quick in the past whilst Gift Of Raaj’s form tailed off quite dramatically in his last two starts and you’d be reliant on the break doing him good.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points):
BET 11.3pts win (nap) THESIS (2.50 Lingfield)
BET 2.5pts win ALABLAQ (4.35 Lingfield)
BET 8.3pts win ARRANGE (7.10 Wetherby)
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
