CHELTENHAM STATS AND FACTS: Daqman’s previews for all four days at the Cheltenham Festival starts today with the Tuesday card one week in advance. See how they won and decide: do you back the favourite or lay it? Or do you follow yesterday’s guide to big-odds winners?
TODAY: Daqman heads to Lingfield for his NAP as another cold snap kicks in and sees Newcastle called off.
LAYS CHALLENGE ON DAY ONE
CHELTENHAM COUNTDOWN: Here’s Daqman’s stats-and-facts survey of every race every day, on the day, for next week’s Cheltenham Festival, starting with the Champion Hurdle card next Tuesday. It’s your guide to ratings/weight, trainers, age and favourites.
LAYS LOGIC: Favourites have lost nine years running in the 5.30 NH Challenge Cup and 11 times out of 12 in the 4.50.
⭕ 1.30 Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 14 (Supreme Novices Hurdle) Only two outright favourites have won in 13 seasons but only one winner has been bigger than 9-1 since 2013. Winning ages: 5 and 6 are 12/13. Ratings (last eight years): 155, 155, 144, 150, 154, 153, 153, 148.
Willie Mullins has won this seven times among 13 Irish winners out of the last 22 (15 had raced in bumpers); 22 of the last 24 winners had won the last day; 10of the last 13 had won a Graded contest.
LAYS were possible on losing favourites Min (2016) 2nd 15-8 SP; Getabird (2018) 11th 7-4 and Asterion Forlonge (2010) 4th 9-4.
⭕ 2.10 Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 14 (Arkle Challenge Trophy) SP: Eight favourites (seven odds-on) have won in the last 12 seasons. Winning ages: 6 and 7 (10 out of 11). Ratings: 166, 161, 170, 162, 151, 144, 164, 159
Nicky Henderson has won four of the last 11; Willie Mullins is four from eight. Some 14 out of 15 Arkle heroes had won or been placed over at least 19 furlongs.
Ten out of 12 had between three and five (completed) chase races, always in the first two.
⭕ 2.50 Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 14 (Ultima Handicap Chase) Only one successful SP favourite in 12 seasons; but 5-1 to 11-1 traps nine of the 12 winners. Ages 7 and 8: eight out of 12.
Ratings: 146, 148, 155, 142, 151, 139, 143, 140. Trainers: David Pipe (2) and Jonjo O’Neill (2) since 2012.
Ten winners of the last 12 had run at a previous Cheltenham festival; 10 out of 12 had won over at least 3m.
3.30 Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 14 (Champion Hurdle) Eight winning favourites since 2010. Ages 6 and 7: nine out of 13.
Ratings: 169, 162, 157, 169, 162, 159, 161, 165. Trainers: Nicky Henderson 5, Willie Mullins 4 in the last 13 years; 11 winners out of the 13 had previoiusly won a Grade-1 hurdle.
4.10 Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 14 (Mares’ Hurdle) Six SP favourites scored out of 12. Ages: no winners older than 7 unless a previous winner of the race.
Ratings: 150, 154, 153, 147, 142, 158, 148, 140. Trainers: Willie Mullins 9 out of 14.
⭕ 4.50 Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 14 (Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle) Only one winning favourite in 12 years with most winners at enormous prices: 80-1, 40-1, 33-1 (three times) and 25-1 (twice) and that’s only since 2012. Ages: 4yo race.
Ratings: 131, 133, 134, 129, 139, 138, 125, 137 with winning weights from 10st 6lb to 11st 9lb. Trainers: Paul Nicholls (3).
LAYS: 11 losing favourites sound good but recent favourites have started at up to 15-2, and you need strong nerves with the short shots: for instance, Gaelic Warrior was beaten a short-head at 13-8 a year ago.
⭕ 5.30 Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 14 (NH Challenge Cup) In the four years 2015 to 2018, this 4m amateurs’ chase produced a Grand National winner, second and third in Tiger Roll, Cause Of Causes and Rathvinden. But in 2020 the race was reduced to 3m 6f and now has a Gold Cup contender in Stattler.
Three SP favourites won (2011-13) but none in the last nine years. Ages: 7 and 8 are eight out of 12. Ten out of 13 had won over at least 3m. Ratings: 146, 143, 152, 150, 145, 142, 152, 153
LAYS seem possible after these losing favourites in the last seven years: A Genie In A Bottle (2017) 5th at 4-1; Jury Road (2018) UR at 4-1; Ballyward (2019) fell at 9-4; Carefully Selected fell 10-11 (2020), Escaria Ten 3rd 11-4 (2020) and Run Wild Fred (2nd 15-8) last season.
HERMINO GETS AA RATING
⭕ 4.10 Sandown It’s snow go at Newcastle today with their afternoon jumps card being called off but there is afternoon racing from Esher at Sandown Park.
Gary Moore’s Authorised Speed will be long odds on for the opener despite flopping here in the Grade 1 Tolworth last time out when sent off the 5/4 favourite. He was found to have scoped dirty after that race and it should be a case of normal service resumed at this level – even with his double penalty.
Moore also has chances of book ending the card with Hermino AA who will be far more of a working mans price on Betdaq Betting Exchange in the closing handicap hurdle.
This one still holds a Cheltenham entry for the Ballymore next week and makes his handicap debut here off a mark of 117.
After decent placed efforts at Ascot and Doncaster he bolted up to win a modest maiden hurdle last time out on his third start. At the time the value of the form looked questionable but the well beaten second and third have both run good races since.
Hermino AA surely has plenty more to offer and can see off likely market leader Howlingmadmurdock who is also making his handicap debut but this looks tougher than the Catterick race in which he was second last time out and the winner of that race was subsequently beaten 61 lengths at Haydock!
DRUMS BEAT AGAIN
⭕ 5.10 Lingfield Navy Dreams is taken to follow up on his course and distance success of last month.
Dylan Hogan rode a fine race that day and the partnership can strike again despite the 3lb rise in the weights. One of the strongest pointers being the paucity of opposition with none of his eight rivals finishing on the podium in their latest starts.
It says enough about the race that the biggest danger might be Cappananty Con who is on a losing run of 33!
JUST LEAVING IT TO PETE
⭕ 7.00 Southwell The best race of the night at Southwell looks wide open but Justcallmepete is the clubhouse leader on current form and may just need to run his race again.
A multiple six furlong winner, he proved he is equally adept at seven furlongs last time out when beaten 1/2 length by Zip here and is weighted to virtually dead heat tonight
However Zip lived up to his name and had the run of the race last time out and hopefully won’t be allowed to have as much free rein.
DAQMAN’S BETS
4.10 Sandown (win 20)
BET 2.6pts win HERMINO AA
5.10 Lingfiield (win 10 nap)
BET 8.2pts win NAVY DRUMS
7.00 Southwell (win 10)
BET 2.4pts win JUSTCALLMEPETE
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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