DAQMAN’S ON-COURT SMASH: Oisin Murphy and Daqman’s tip Weston Court (WON 11-4) won a neck-and-neck battle with a rival called Rival at Windsor last night, with the lead changing in the final furlong and again in the last few yards.
TODAY: Fortune Cookies update and three bets from Hamilton and Lingfield.
TOMORROW: Eclipse ABC guide
FORTUNE COOKIES UPDATE
DAQMAN concentrates his Fortune Cookies on the most likely short-priced winners in contrast to bull’s-eye bets on the big-handicap outsiders. Lookout for both at BETDAQ-value offers.
112 BEDTIME STORY (Aidan O’Brien) Moyglare, Curragh, September 15
113 BIG EVS (Michael Appleby) King George, Goodwood, August 2
124 CITY OF TROY (Aidan O’Brien) Eclipse Stakes, Sandown, July 6
115 EZELIYA (Dermot Weld) Irish Oaks, Curragh, July 20
117 INISHERIN (Kevin Ryan) July Cup, Newmarket, July 13
110 JAMES’S DELIGHT (Clive Cox) Next engagement not yet announced
120 LOOK DE VEGA (Carlos and Yann Lerner) Arc De Triomphe, October 6
118 ROSALLION (Richard Hannon) Sussex Stakes, Goodwood, July 31
106 UXMAL (Joseph O’Brien) Goodwood Cup, July 30
EASY AS SHELLEY PEAS?
⭕ 4.15 Hamilton A six runner 1m 4f handicap where there are more questions than answers – especially around the two that were dominating the morning Betdaq Betting Exchange market.
L’Eagle Aid is proving hard to win with and needs to bounce back from a 13+ length defeat at Thirsk last time out in a race where he never got competitive. Trainer Charlie Johnston is on a current strike-rate of 6-87 which doesn’t really inspire confidence either.
Quantum Leap hails from a yard in better form (Edward Bethell 6 winners from last 23) but is having his first race since last October and has needed an outing before after a similar break.
It may pay to look elsewhere and I like the look of the class dropper Percy Shelley who was a three time winner in his native France.
Whilst he has struggled for form in his six British starts to date, he has been campaigned at a significantly higher level – last three races in class 2 level at Newmarket, York and Epsom. The handicapper has dropped him another two pounds and he will surely find this much easier?
Victory Shout was 10th in the race L’Eagle Aid was 10th but would have chances on his previous second place effort here and looks the danger.
I’M IN THE NON FICTION DEPARTMENT
⭕ 6.30 Lingfield A really modest card on the Surrey circuit and many will stick with Oisin Murphy who did me a favour at Windsor last night as he seldom seems to go a day without a win at the moment.
Murphy rides warm favourite Fictional here but I’m a non-fiction believer as he is completely unproven over this two mile trip. He looked good when making all at Kempton last time out but that was 1m 3f and we’re in uncharted waters tonight. I don’t mind taking chances but not at short odds.
Smart Charger looks a much more sensible alternative. Alan King’s runner has proven form at 1m 6f and is much more certain to see out this extra distance. I think his form is also better so he gets my Tuesday nap vote.
PASSING ON THE SALT AND VINEGAR
⭕ 9.00 Lingfield The finale looks a coin-flip between Birkenhead and Wrestling Revenue who both bring the best current form into the race.
On balance I prefer Birkenhead’s form – trainer Paul Midgley is also in good form with 4 winners from his last 22 runners and Oisin Murphy is in the saddle for the first time.
Wrestling Revenue has been running well – especially at Brighton – but as regular readers know I tend to treat Brighton form with a pinch of salt (and vinegar please).
DAQMAN’S BETS
4.15 Hamilton (win 10)
2.6pts win PERCY SHELLEY
6.30 Lingfield (win 10, nap)
BET 3.3pts win SMART CHARGER
9.00 Lingfield (win 10)
BET 8.3pts win BIRKENHEAD
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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