TOP 5 HOT HANDICAP YARDS: Daqman completes his two-part probe into spotting handicap winners and finds that these prizes are just as much the preserve of a select few stables as are Group races.
MURPHY TO RIGHT MISS-HIT: Daqman relies on Oisin Murphy to put right a near-miss with his only previous ride on a course-and-distance winner on grass at Lingfield.
TRAINERS YOU CAN TRUST
CLASS OF 25: Part 2 Yesterday this column took on board your cry of ‘same-old, same old,’ ‘O’Brien wins again!’ So Daqman looked at the handicaps instead and dissected the grades.
He reckoned on those with horses you can trust (between the impostors and the improvers) and those nigh on impossible to solve on form.
Today Daqman checks out the four big handicaps due in the next three weeks, and added a lesser one close at hand to spot-check the trends.
Result: same old, same old! Top handicap trainers win time and again though the stats reveal a handful of astute stables you didn’t know you had. This is how the five races tot up:
5 wins Andrew Balding 2025 form 20% (110 winners)
3 William Haggas 2025 form 20% (60 winners)
2 Owen Burrows 2025 form 21% (13 winners)
2 Richard Hannon 2025 form 16% (65 winners)
2 Roger Varian 2025 form 22% (46 winners)
Those are the top five stables from those select handicaps who have the best form this year.
But check out Michael Dods (3) and Dean Ivory (2)! Poor strike rates but, as we approach the big-time handicaps, ask yourself: are these guys poised for another hit where they do so well against the star stables?
Newmark Handicap (Ascot, Friday): Clive Cox and William Haggas 2 winners each in the last decade; Andrew Balding, John Butler, Saeed bin Suroor, Roger Varian 1 each.
Bunbury Cup (Newmarket July Course, Saturday) Richard Hannon 2, David Barron, Ralph Beckett, Marco Botti, Richard Fahey, David Simcock, Ian Williams
John Smiths Cup (York, Saturday): Andrew Balding 2, Owen Burrows, William Haggas, Jim Goldie, Amy Murphy, Roger Varian.
International Handicap (Ascot, July 26) Richard Fahey 2, George Boughey, Owen Burrows, Roger Charlton, Michael Dods, James Fanshawe, Roger Fell, Dean Ivory, Jamie Osborne.
Stewards Cup (Goodwood, August 2) Michael Dods 2, Charles Hills 2, David O’Meara 2, George Baker, Andrew Balding, Dean Ivory, Hugo Palmer.
TWO FROM ASCOT FORM
⭕ 3.10 Pontefract Just one clear favourite has won this fillies-and-mares’ Listed in the last decade, with winners SPs up to 11-1 (twice), 14-1 (twice) and 25-1.
The withdrawal of Sparks Fly left a three-way dispute for market leader: Charlotte’s Web, Royal Dress and Soprano.
Success for Royal Dress in the last 14 months has been without any confidence: SPs of 16-1 and 33-1 in small fields.
Soprano was a Listed winner in March but that race was isolated between two lengthy holidays and she got lit up at the start sent straight to Royal Ascot after the second one.
Charlotte’s Web won four handicaps in a row on AW tracks over the winter but she’s never won on turf.
I fancy a change of tactics would help Francophone (around 10-1 this morning). She’s been running well over 1m 2f but dropped back to a mile at Royal Ascot.
Third in front of her that day, Cheshire Dancer appears to have no chance at the weights but caught the eye as a late improver worth this speculative bid for black type; with its many shock results, this is clearly the race to do it in. Betdaq Betting Exchange 12.0 taken.
MURPHY RATES THE NAP
⭕ 3.40 Pontefract (Silver Sprint) Stalls 1, 2, 3 have won for the last five years, and Spangled Mac – out of gate 2 – has his best chance since his return from Bahrain, out of his depth in the Buckingham Palace Handicap at Royal Ascot. BETDAQ 7.5 taken.
⭕ 5.00 Lingfield Amestris was odds on under Oisin Murphy at Windsor in September but was beaten a neck off 91 when the winner got first run on him.
Murphy is back on Amestris today on slower ground and on the track where she won her maiden.
As a three-year-old she can be allowed some improvement over the older horses but is down to 84, though returned to form the last day. BETDAQ 5.3
DAQMAN’S BETS on Betdaq Betting Exchange
3.10 Pontefract (win 30)
BET 3pts win FRANCOPHONE
BET 2.8pts win CHESHIRE DANCER
3.40 Pontefract (win 20)
BET 3pts win SPANGLED MAC
★ 5.00 Lingfield
BET 4.75pts win AMESTRIS (nap)
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
