LONGCHAMP TODAY: ABBAYE STATS: Last Tuesday, Daqman tipped up a nap two days early. Today he starts his countdown to Sunday’s Longchamp Arc meeting with analysis of the stats for the Prix de l’Abbaye sprint championship.
LONG BETDAQ PRICES TOMORROW: The Wednesday BETDAQ-sponsored scene at Kempton Park often produces a long-odds winner for Daqman, and he’ll have more about the Arc weekend.
MUTHMIR NOW HEADS FOR ASCOT DOUBLE
You need Total recall. In the last 17 years, only one three-year-old has won Sunday’s big sprint in Paris (Total Gallery 2009) and you have to cast your mind back to 1978 for a two-year-old scorer, Sigy. That’s 36 years ago.
And, since the Paris weather forecast is for clear days and sunny, the home team of Catcall, Rangali and last year’s winner on the soft, Maarek, appear to be at a disadvantage in the Prix de l’Abbaye championship sprint.
I said before Muthmir landed the Portland that this was a Group-1 horse in a handicap and, wherever he goes in the next three weeks, I was wanting to be on.
Well, Muthmir has switched from the Abbaye to Saturday’s Rous Stakes (Listed) at Ascot, though still left in the British Champions Sprint (Group 2) on Champions’ Day on the same course (October 18).
What would you have done with this massive improver, still only four? Go for the Listed, the Group 2 or the Group-1 Abbaye? The decision came today more or less at the same time that Tiggy Wiggy was also declared a ‘nonner’ for the Abbaye.
While Muthmir – only eight races in his life – looks a good thing for Saturday, the question everyone was asking was could he step up from a handicap to win the Abbaye.
The last time that was done? The very same Total Gallery (2009), one of 11 English or Irish raiders to snatch the prize from the French this century.
Now, with Saturday looking like a prep race, can he now go on instead to Champions Day and win the Sprint there? Certainly something to look forward to.
11.0 WIN FOR JOE AS CLEAR AS CRYSTAL
AYR In the Mile Series Final (5.30) the layers bet fair on BETDAQ with a value list of offers in the orange that the bookies can’t beat.
Second and sixth last year were True Pleasure and Ted’s Brother, with the revised weights suggesting a dead-heat between them this time around.
But this is a field of winners in class 4, 5 and 6, masquerading as class 3, so it seems sensible to back a young horse who has scope for improving to that level.
That would be Hanalei Bay (but he’s 11lb higher than for CD win), Bahamian C, Gambino, Porthos Du Vallon (first-time hood), the penalised Funding Deficit, Opt Out (first run at this trip) or Dark Crystal.
The forecast showers may take the sting out of the ground, which will suit Dark Crystal. Joe Fanning is back on board for the first time since he won on her over CD in June.
The main body of form horses is drawn out wide – Bahamian C, Funding Deficit, Gambino – so the 11.0 Dark Crystal looked tasty in the orange this morning, early mouse.
CHEPSTOW National Hunt trainers have taken over both the ‘Hot Trainers’ and the ‘In Form’ lists in the Racing Post, with Charlie Longdon six winners out of eight, David Pipe eight out of 10 placed – four of them winners – Evan Williams going for a hat-trick and Phil Middleton two out of thee.
Pipe has only one runner at Chepstow. His Barton Stacey (3.40) is the sole ride of the day for A P McCoy, bidding for a hat-trick on the horse, and five time a winner from eight starts for the stable this season. But, significantly, he’s not the favourite; not even second favourite, as I write!
Carole’s Destrier and Creepy, both of them absent six months and more, are vying for favouritism just in front of Barton Stacey early mouse on BETDAQ this morning, though neither has even run in a chase before.
Carole’s Destrier won the BETDAQ Silver Plate over hurdles at Kempton in March and Creepy won in the Neptune series at Cheltenham the November before failing in the final at the festival.
Both go well fresh, with Creepy the class horse and a winner first time in the last two seasons.
But Neil Mulholland, who trains Carole’s Destrier, is yet another jumps trainer in form, possibly the hottest of the hot, with current figures of 111101 still standing.
SEDGEFIELD David Pipe is no stranger to Sedgefield and has two good chances there today but I can’t recall seeing Victor Dartnall taking a similar long haul from Devon.
His lone raider, Jewellery (5.10), jumped well on her chasing debut and the stable has her Fontwell-hurdle-winning jockey, Denis O’Regan, on board in a race of little depth. Jewellery should sparkle.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points each)
BET 7.8pts win CAROLE’S DESTRIER and 2.7pts win (stakes saver) CREEPY (3.40 Chepstow)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) JEWELLERY (5.10 Sedgefield)
BET 2pts win and place DARK CRYSTAL (5.30 Ayr)
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