CLASSIC ‘SEE HOW THEY WON’: Every year Daqman seeks out the colts who have won the two-year-old and early second-season tests that are usually strong pointers to the 2,000 Guineas. He rates them 1 to 10 but reckons that this year one is a standout and the others look more like sprinters or French Derby types.
EPSOM DERBY TEST TOMORROW: Look out tomorrow for Daqman’s guide to the big Spring meeting at Epsom, which includes the Derby Trial, plus two big handicaps, the Great Metropolitan and the City and Suburban.
DON’T FORGET MARCEL FOR FRENCH DERBY
Where do the Guineas winners come from? I’ve checked out the turnkey races, as follows: winners of the Beresford Stakes, Coventry Stakes, Dewhurst, Futurity, Greenham, National Stakes, Phoenix, Prix Djebel, Prix Lagardere, Royal Lodge Stakes, Racing Post Trophy, Railway Stakes. That’s all in the last 10 years.
Then I related their collateral form and level of performance, giving them marks out of 10. Three horses rate high marks, two on 10 and one on 8, all worth following.
With Air Force Blue seemingly a standout in the Guineas, the two others are worth noting for the Epsom or Chantilly Derbys.
10 AIR FORCE BLUE (won Dewhurst Stakes, National Stakes, Phoenix Stakes): Three key-race pointers suggest that Air Force Blue is well ahead of the field.
But nothing spectacular in his pedigree, and his Racing Post sire’s stamina index of 8.8 furlongs is below all 10 of the Guineas winners in the last decade (9.1 to 11.8), though War Front’s best son won the Queen Anne Stakes (1m) and the York International (1m 2.5f).
Air Force Blue beat Herald The Dawn three lengths in the National Stakes and, though beaten by Buratino in the Coventry, he turned the tables in the Phoenix Stakes. Odds on with bookmaker and BETDAQ.
7 BURATINO (Coventry Stakes) After just one run when winning his maiden at The Curragh in May, Air Force Blue ran green when second to Buratino in the Coventry but left the same horse behind in third in the Phoenix Stakes nine weeks later.
Buratino’s sire has a sprinter’s stamina index of 6.7. He’s 16-1 for the Guineas with most bookmakers, 18.5 on BETDAQ.
5 CHEIKELJACK (Prix Djebel) The Djebel didn’t look a great contest this year, though the second horse home was Richard Fahey’s Mill Reef winner, Ribchester. Stamina index of this winner: 8.1.
Both winner and second may run in the French Guineas (May 16), also the likely target for Stormy Antarctic and Johannes Vermeer.
4 FOUNDATION (Royal Lodge Stakes) Another with a low sire’s stamina index (7.2). Followed up his Royal Lodge success, with third to Marcel and Johannes Vermeer in the Racing Post Trophy.
Looked laboured on the soft in the Craven Stakes at Newmarket when Stormy Antarctic swept by him and went three-and-a-lengths clear. Out to 102.0 on BETDAQ for the 2,000 Guineas.
5 HERALD THE DAWN (Futurity) A son of Epsom Derby winner New Approach (9.9f), whose brother, Dawn Approach, won the Guineas. The second and third in his Futurity have since been well behind Minding and Stormy Antarctic.
Herald The Dawn was beaten three lengths by Air Force Blue in the National Stakes and a similar distance by Ultra in the Grand Criterium (Prix Lagardere). Out to 148.0 on BETDAQ.
8 MARCEL (Racing Post Trophy) By French Derby winner Lawman (8.6f), he beat Johannes Vermeer and Foundation in the Racing Post Trophy.
Peter Chapple-Hyam’s Epsom Derby winner, Authorized, won the same two-year-old trophy, but Marcel looks more likely to have the French Derby as his target. Newmarket Guineas offers of 17.0 on BETDAQ.
4 PAINTED CLIFFS (Railway Stakes) Beaten three times by Air Force Blue and likely to be aimed at 7f races like the Jersey Stakes. By Canford Cliffs (7.6f) out of a Kyllachy mare. He’s 345.0 for the Guineas on BETDAQ.
3 PORT DOUGLAS (Beresford Stakes) A son of Galileo (11.2f), but only fourth when Marcel beat Johannes Vermeer and Foundation for the Racing Post Trophy.
4 TASLEET (Greenham Stakes) Won a sub-standard Greenham, switched from a waterlogged Newbury to Chelmsford. Another Jersey Stakes type by Showcasing (6.9f).
10 ULTRA (Lagardere) By Manduro (11.1f) out of a Nashwan mare, he looks a likely Derby horse for Godolphin, unbeaten in three starts under Andre Fabre, including the Lagardere, with Johannes Vermeer fourth and Herald The Dawn seventh.
He’s 300.0 on BETDAQ for Newmarket and 74.0 for the Epsom Derby, so it seems that he’s likely to stay at home in France. That suggests he’s not ne plus ultra.
ALL ABOARD THE EXPRESS TO LUDLOW
I am concentrating on the jumps today. Two at Ludlow, including the Nap and two at Kempton.
3.10 Ludlow Dickie Johnson is set to be crowned Champion on Saturday. He goes to Ludlow to enhance his tally beyond the current standing of 228.
It looks like he’s got a fantastic opportunity to make it 229 in this one with the Richard Newland trained Express Du Berlais. This one was eased down when a long way clear last time to coast home by 11 lengths. He’s been put up the mandatory 7lbs but seems like he could go further. His last mark over Hurdles was 124 and he runs off 122 today.
3.40 Ludlow This looks tricky as it’s very competitive.
Towering is an interesting one. Finished 5th behind Unowhatimeanharry who went on to Grade 1 success at the Cheltenham Festival. He looks well handicapped for this.
The one I’m most intruiged by is Shotavodka though. He runs off a 10lb lower mark over Hurdles compared to Fences and most importantly, he’s a multiple Hurdle winner. He comes here with a win and a place under his belt in his last two runs and looks great value at 8.4 on BETDAQ.
4.00 Kempton Quick turnaround to another good race at Kempton. Cheltenham Festival winner Present View heads the weights.
Port Melon would be of interest only for Paul Nicholls publicly saying that he’s no better than a 135 horse. Runs off 138 today so still a few pounds to go. His head isn’t always in it either.
I’ve never felt that Present View is a true 3 mile horse. Although nowhere better than Kempton to prove that wrong. He’s only a couple of pounds higher than winning the Novice Handicap at the Festival two years back.
Shantou Magic looks great value though. He’s only run four times since his last win 12 months ago off a mark that was 13lbs higher. Three of those four runs came over a much trip that was too sharp. Although this race is better, he’s been given a chance by the Handicapper and his trainer. Ground looks ideal too.
4.30 Kempton Every winner will count for Paul Nicholls. His titantic battle with Willie Mullins for the Trainers Championship is set to go down to the wire.
His German import Chartbreaker could have a very lenient Handicap mark. He was beaten a long way in two very good Novice races before winning over course and distance. This could be another to push P.F.Nicholls ahead of W.P.Mullins.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Staked 1-9pts on strength, 10pts for a banker)
BET 7pts win (nap) EXPRESS DU BERLAIS (3.10 Ludlow)
BET 2pts win and place SHOTAVODKA (3.40 Ludlow)
BET 2pts win and place SHANTOU MAGIC (4.00 Kempton)
BET 4pts win CHARTBREAKER (4.30 Kempton)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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