BETDAQ VALUE: 16.0 PONTEFRACT PUNT: A 7-1 winner at Windsor last night didn’t cover the day but Daqman has more big offers – 7.0 and 16.0 outsiders at Pontefract today – though his nap is one of the favourites on the Lingfield Park card.
BETDAQ VALUE: 18.0 BOLD ARC BID: Just as the ground may change at Pontefract with rain, Daqman picks up on three beaten stars who could bounce back on soft at BETDAQ July Cup and Arc offers of 18.0, 12.5 and 7.0 this morning.
BIG THREE SOFT TOUCHES ON BETDAQ
HOT STREAK – Showers are forecast on a daily basis – today, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday – for Newmarket’s second track, the summer racecourse, where the July Cup is due to be run on Saturday.
This is music to the ears of trainer Kevin Ryan, who is convinced that Hot Streak is the best he’s ever trained and a champion among sprinters this season, but for the ground.
The 2013 Cornwallis winner and Middle Park runner-up (both on good to soft), has twice given best to Sole Power, in the Palace House and the Kings Stand Stakes.
But he and stablemate Pearl Secret finished well clear in the Temple Stakes on the soft at Haydock. Hot Streak is 12.5 for the July Cup on BETDAQ this morning.
KINGSTON HILL – Now likely to miss the St Leger and make a bold bid for the Arc, Kingston Hill is 18.0 on BETDAQ for the October race, which is invariably run on an easy surface at that time of year.
The Roger Varian colt has been thwarted (lovely word, linking its mood of strangled frustration and loss) by firm ground since running second, but by no means secondary, to Australia in the Epsom Derby.
Pulled out of The Curragh version because of the fast surface, he was allowed to take his chance in Saturday’s Eclipse, which was an egg-and-spoon race, with the winner taking the silver spoon while the rest had egg on their faces.
The ground at Sandown on Saturday could be described as good-to-firm-with-a-sprinkling-of-rain-to-make-it-slippery. Only the winner enjoyed it.
TREVE – Kingston Hill has it to prove but Treve’s Arc CV is: been there, won it, got the yellow jersey with a tour de force.
Treve has something over Australia and over the latest Longchamp plunge, Sea The Moon – 11 lengths winner of the Germany Derby – in that she has a potent change of gear on a soft surface.
She won the Diane, Vermeille and Arc consecutively with cut in the ground last autumn, and must not be written off, with her record’s only real blemish her defeat over too short a trip on firm ground at Royal Ascot: I have 7.0 on BETDAQ for the Arc.
ON THE DARK SIDE OF THE MOON
There’s a wild card in the ratings. European handicappers who are likely to hike German Derby winner Sea The Moon to the top of the three-year-old ratings have just one horse to give them a line.
Sea The Moon slaughtered German Guineas winner, Lucky Lion, but so what? I can find only collateral form with France and England concerning the fifth colt to finish, Wild Chief.
Wild Chief had run fourth in the French Derby to The Grey Gatsby, a great result for England and Kevin Ryan but not yet franked by the beaten horses.
In fact, The Grey Gatsby was 12 lengths off Kingston Hill as a two-year-old and six behind Night Of Thunder in the Guineas. The horses he defeated in the Dante were Arod, more than eight behind Australia and Epsom, and True Story, who has double flopped, both Derby and Eclipse.
7.0 MASARAH THE FIRST POSITION
When is a shower not a shower? We’re still in limbo with the weather and the showers forecast for Pontefract today could be anything: enough to wet a Yorkshire flat cap or enough to change the good-to-firm ground.
That Saturday Eclipse – some say a single shower could be blamed for the strangest result of the season so far – has punters going nervous.
In the class-3 sprint (4.30), it seemingly needs to stay firm for Al Khan, Dark Castle, Hadaj and King Of Eden, whereas rain into the ground would boost the hopes of Boy In The Bar, but also rank outsiders on BETDAQ this morning, Chooseday and Secret Look.
The ground is less of a worry betting in the Listed (4.00), where most of the fillies and mares looking for some black type have form in different conditions.
Amulet, Boonga Roogeta and Masarah are all freegoing sorts, so we can expect a pace race which may have others in the field lying too far out of their ground, Eclipse style.
Amulet has run out of steam from the front the last twice and is a stone worse off with Masarah on their Ascot form in May, while Boonga Roogeta is a lower-level handicapper on what we know.
At Epsom Masarah finished in front of Butterfly McQueen, Audacia and Amulet, only three or four lengths off Thistle Bird, subsequent star of a Curragh Group 1.
Early-mouse favourite, Pavlosk, has already won a Listed and also comes here off the back of a Group-race effort, but her CV shows four defeats on good and good-to-firm, with success only on soft and good-to-soft.
Rain is seemingly needed for her and 7.0 Masarah on BETDAQ before the state of the ground is known was an obvious first position. I will charge a saver on Pavlosk to the account.
Railing round the inside of the Ponty frying-pan has produced two wins out of three for stall 2 in the three seasons of the 1m 2f handicap (3.00).
From the same stall, Fine Vintage, dropped in grade and trip, looks set to ‘do a Johnston’ and scrape the paint in front. At 16.0 on BETDAQ this morning, worth a pound to step up on his two runs after being gelded.
Gabrial The Thug has to move up a level and needed a whipping to get home at Newcastle (will he remember it?). Obboorr has won only his maiden (always a bad sign) and Woodacre also has just the one win on the board, though a seven-year-old.
The same applies to Tower Power, a front-runner drawn out on the A1 in stall 13, but he’s the improver of the race and doesn’t seem to have an awful lot to beat.
Jersey Stakes winner Aqlaam did this column some big favours. Now his daughter, Meeting Waters (4.15 Lingfield) can land us the nap.
After a six-lengths maiden success, she was highly tried in a class-2 handicap, then had to contend with heavy ground on her reappearance second, though still the moral, giving a lump of weight to the winner.
IT’S THERE IN THE TURN AND THE TOUCH
* He was 10 years older than Lester Piggott, so not many kids who wanted to be Di Stefano in the playground are here now to remember his influence. But, with the modern evidence of film and video, today’s young ones, do – Ronaldo does, Bale does – and, when Argentina win the World Cup, the turn and touch of Messi will remind us all of a legend. The truth is, he never left us.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each win bet staked for 20 points profit at BETDAQ offers unless otherwise stated)
BET 6pts win TOWER POWER and 1.3pts win and place FINE VINTAGE (3.00 Pontefract)
BET 3.3pts win MASARAH and 1.3pts (stakes saver) PAVLOSK (4.00 Pontefract)
BET 8.8pts win (nap) MEETING WATERS (4.15 Lingfield)
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