GOING PREFERENCES IN SATURDAY’S GRAND NATIONAL: Where will the Grand National winner come from: the high weights where the quality is? Or does being low down the handicap give you a big advantage over the four-and-a-half-mile trip and 30 fences? The conditions play such a big part in the result that Daqman checks out how strong the effect of the going and which horses on Saturday like what kind of ground.
➡️ TUESDAY NEWS: Course now good to soft, soft in places after 10mm of rain.
TOMORROW: ABC GUIDE TO THE AINTREE FIELD: Don’t miss tomorrow’s horse-by-horse analysis of the runners in Daqman’s ABC Guide to the race, assessing the form, stats and facts plus the trainer ability and his current form.
WEATHER FORECASTS THE RESULT
It’s the weather not the weight. Bad ground on Saturday would be so against those with 11 stone or more in the Grand National that the nearest you could hope to finish is fourth, according to the stats.
That’s what is revealed from the 19 Nationals this century that have been run on good (9 times), good to soft (6) or heavy ground (4).
The table below shows that in three recent years of bad ground only four horses with 11st or more were among the first 41 finishers in total.
With ‘good to soft’, on the other hand, the higher weights have provided three winners, a second, third and fourth in six runnings, and good ground has provided three straight winners in recent years.
That was not the case before the modification of fences. Whether the races were fast run because the going was on top, or whether horses were bogged down in the mud, there were far fewer finishers carrying weight up to 2004.
The overall research suggests that both for safety and a good result for quality horses, the easy side of good on the modified course has been progressively best since 2007.
SOFT-HEAVY GROUND
2018 Only two of 12 finishers had 11st or more (best fourth). Heavy
2016 Only one finished in first 13 with 11st or more (fourth). Soft
2014 Only one in first 16 with 11st more (fifth). Soft
2001 Only four finished; one with 11st 5lb (fourth). Heavy
GOOD TO SOFT
2017 Only one in first 15 with 11st or more (best fourth). Good to soft
2015 Only two in first 11 with 11st or more (winner). Good to soft
2013 Only one in first 11 with 11st or more (third). Good to soft
2009 Four of first six to finish had 11st. or more (winner). Good to soft
2006 Only one of nine finishers set 11st plus (second). Good to soft
2005 First two had 11st or more (winner). Good to soft
GOING GOOD
2012 Three of 13 finishers carried 11st or more (best winner). Good
2011 Three of first seven finishers on 11st or more (winner). Good
2010 Five of first 10 finishers had 11st or more (winner). Good
2008 Three of first five home had 11st or more (third). Good
2007 Three in first 11 had 11st or more (sixth). Good
2004 Only one of the first eight carried more than 11st (fourth). Good
2003 None of the first nine carried 11st or more (tailed off). Good
2002 Just two of 11 finishers carried more than 11st (second). Good
2000 Four of 17 finishers carried 11st or more (fifth). Good
Going preferences on Saturday
* based on wins only
Here is the range of ground conditions preferred by Saturday’s 40 declared runners in this year’s Grand National:
HEAVY Folsom Blue, Livelovelaugh
SOFT-HEAVY Ballyoptic, General Principle, Jury Duty, Mala Beach, Noble Endeavour, Ramses De Teillee
GOOD TO SOFT/HEAVY Anibale Fly, A Toi Phil, Blow By Blow, Don Poli, Dounikos, Lake View Lad, Mall Dini, Monbeg Notorious, One For Arthur, Outlander, Pairofbrowneyes, Pleasant Company, Rathvinden, Singlefarmpayment, Step Back, Tiger Roll, Ultragold, Up For Review, Vieux Lion Rouge
GOOD TO SOFT/SOFT Magic Of Light, Minella Rocco, Regal Encore, Tea For Two, Valtor, Walk In The Mill
GOOD/SOFT Go Conquer, Rock The Kasbah, Valseur Lido, Vintage Clouds, Warriors Tale
GOOD, GOOD TO SOFT Bless The Wings
GOOD Sandymount Duke
LOOKING TO LOULE
3.15 Musselburgh (Borderlescott Sprint Trophy) A cracking class 2 sprint to look forward to, named in honour of the 14-times sprint winner trained by Robin Bastiman.
Sadly, I’m not sure it will be kept in the family as Royal Brave (trained by Rebecca Bastiman) looks to have a tough job on his hands after an absence of 161 days.
Paul Midgley won this in 2017 with Desert Law and clearly has targeted the race again with four of the eight entries!
They include the very talented Tarboosh who had a superb 2018 but it’s worth noting he took a few runs to show his best form and might just need this after a break.
The only runner in the field with recent form is Merhoob who has been kept busy on the all-weather and he might just have an edge today. He was unlucky when beaten at Lingfield last time out and was a course and distance winner here last year.
3.30 Lingfield (Ladbrokes Home Of The Odds Boost Novice Stakes) Sash probably has the best form (and pedigree) but the Amanda Perrett stable have been quiet and after an absence of 111 days the current 2.38 BETDAQ favourite (at the time of writing) looks worth taking on.
In many ways it was disappointing that he couldn’t build on a decent debut effort at Kempton when running the odds-on Art Song to half a length – which was followed by defeats at Lingfield and then back at Kempton.
Fragrant Belle won here on debut but the form hasn’t worked out well and I wouldn’t be rushing in to back him under a penalty for the Beckett stable who have fired in just 2 winners from 26 runners this season.
Assuming the Richard Hannon (3 winners from last 26) two debutants are not above average (and keep an eye on the market) the most sensible alternative to the favourite looks to be Moongazer and we can be certain the Charlie Hills stable is in good form with 6 of their last 8 runners placed – including three winners!
Moongazer won over seven furlongs here on debut and followed up by finishing second to I’m Available at Kempton in a much better race under a penalty.
I napped I’m Available yesterday who had a stinker of a run, managing to get boxed in for the majority of the race despite there just being six runners 🙁
5.15 Musselburgh Our Place In Loule is a course specialist who ran well here on seasonal debut last season – and rounded it off with two course and distance wins.
He starts the new campaign off on a 4lb higher mark but is up against a mainly modest bunch here and is a sporting nap on a tough day.
Gamesome is vying for favouritism but hasn’t won since 2013 and has been well beaten in his three runs this season so good luck with that project!
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 3.7pts win MERHOOB (3.15 Musselburgh)
BET 3.7pts win MOONGAZER (3.30 Lingfield)
BET 6pts win (nap) OUR PLACE IN LOULE (5.15 Musselburgh)
DAQ MULTIPLES 3×1 win doubles and 1pt win treble
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