BETDAQ BOOSTS DAQMAN HAT-TRICK: THREE winners out of three yesterday as Daqman holds sway over the leading tipsters with a staggering long weekend of successful strikes, piling up profits boosted by huge BETDAQ value to nearly 150 points.
⭐ NINE winning bets in four days
⭐ THREE out of three potential lays
⭐ THREE naps up including a supernap
⭐ PROFIT (staked bets only) 147.36 points
Monday: profit on the day 30 points
WON 6-4 THIS SWAY (BETDAQ 6.0 taken)
WON 5-1 SERIOUS LOOK
WON 15-8 CLASSY CLARETS (nap) 3.44 BETDAQ xsp
Sunday: profit on the day 35 points
WON 5-4 SPARKLING DUKE
WON 9-4 MOORLAND RAMBLER (nap)
Saturday: profit on the day 53.50 points
WON 14-1 COPPERHEAD (BETDAQ 26.0 taken)
(LAYS LOGIC: unplaced 15-8 favourite)
WON 5-1 JASMIN DE GRUGY
(LAYS LOGIC: two 7-2 jt favs, 3rd and UR)
Friday: profit on the day 28.86 points
WON 3-1 FAST TRACK HARRY (BETDAQ 7.9)
WON 5-6 TALK TO THE MAN (supernap)
COUNTDOWN TO CHELTENHAM Day 1: Here is Daqman’s stats-and-facts survey for next Tuesday at Cheltenham, with ratings, trainers records, winners’ age and form lines, weights carried and how favourites fared.
⚠️ Marine Nationale has been ruled out of the Queen Mother Champion Chase with a sore neck and will miss the chance to defend his title.
JUVENILE FAVOURITE JUST 1-15
⭕ CHELTENHAM Tuesday next, March 10: LAYS LOGIC: The favourite has been beaten 14 times out of 15 in the 2.40 Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle, which in the last decade has had winners at 10-1, 18-1, 25-1, 33-1 (three times) and 80-1.
⭕ 1.20 Cheltenham (Supreme Novices Hurdle) Only three outright SP favourites have won in 16 seasons but the last five years have seen the front of the market fluctuate and winners have started 8-11, 9-4, 9-2, 7-2 and 4-6. Only one winner has been bigger than 9-1 SP since 2013.
Winning ages: 5 and 6 are 15/16. Ratings (last 11 years): 155, 155, 144, 150, 154, 153, 153, 148, 150, 147 and 157 latest.
Willie Mullins has won this eight times among 16 Irish winners out of the last 25 (18 had raced in bumpers); 24 of the last 27 winners had scored the last day; 13 of the last 16 had won a Graded contest.
⭕ 2.00 Cheltenham (Arkle Challenge Trophy) SP: 10 favourites (seven odds-on) have won in the last 15 seasons. Winning ages: 6 and 7 (13 out of 14).
Ratings: 166, 161, 170, 162, 151, 144, 164, 159, 162, 157 and 153.
Willie Mullins has won six out of 11; Nicky Henderson five of the last 15. Some 16 out of 18 Arkle heroes had won or been placed over at least 19 furlongs.
Eleven out of 15 had between three and five (completed) chase races, always in the first two.
⭕ 2.40 Cheltenham (Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle) Just one successful favourite in 15 years with most winners at enormous prices: 80-1, 40-1, 33-1 (three times), 25-1 (twice) and 18-1.. and that’s only since 2012.
Ratings: 131, 133, 134, 129, 139, 138, 125, 137, 125, 122 and 130. Winning weights from 10st 6lb to 11st 9lb.
Trainers: Gordon Elliott (3), Paul Nicholls (3), Joseph O’Brien (3). Ireland currently eight in a row.
LAYS LOGIC: 14 losers sounds good but recent favourites have started at up to 15-2, and you need strong nerves with the short shots.
In 2024, Stencil (11-4 fav) weakened before the last, lost a shoe; in 2023, Tekao (3-1 fav) going easily when mistake three out; and in 2022 Gaelic Warrior led last, beaten a short-head at 13-8 fav.
⭕ 3.20 Cheltenham (Ultima Handicap Chase) Ages 7 and 8: ten out of 15. Ratings: 146, 148, 155, 142, 151, 139, 143, 140, 146, 143, 127. NB: 127 rated winner last year yet 13-2 fav!
Twelve winners of the last 15 had run at a previous Cheltenham festival; 13 out of 15 had won over around 3m and more.
Trainers: Lucinda Russell three of the last four, two of them carrying 10-2 and 10-3, including that low, low 127 rated.
⭕ 4.00 Cheltenham (Champion Hurdle) 10 winning favourites since 2010. Ages 6 and 7 won 12 out of 16.
Ratings: 169, 162, 157, 169, 162, 159, 161, 165, 173, 169 and 144. Note how underrated (144) was last year’s winner, Golden Ace, who is still on only 152.
Trainers: Nicky Henderson 6, Willie Mullins 5 in the last 16 years. Thirteen winners out of the 16 had previously won a Grade-1 hurdle.
⭕ 4.40 Cheltenham (Plate) Favourites: three out of four successes between 2018 and 2021 and another one last year but they cluster around 8-1, 20-1 and 22-1 strikes.
Ages: 6 to 9 eight in a row and another one last year but those winning outsiders all came on soft ground and were aged 10 (twice) and 11. Weights 11st 5lb or less (15 in a row).
All winners in the last 16 years had previously scored from 2m 3f to 2m 5f.
Ratings: 140, 142, 145, 147, 141, 149, 140, 145, 143, 143 and 139.
⭕ 5.20 Cheltenham (NH Challenge Cup) Reduced to 3m 6f since 2020 and run as a novices’ handicap since 2024.
Before that, when over 4m and restricted to amateur riders, it had produced a Grand National winner, second and third in Tiger Roll, Cause Of Causes and Rathvinden.
The last five winners have been started 7-2, 2-1, 10-11 fav, 15-8 and 7-2 jt fav. Irish trainers: 5-6.
Ages: 7 and 8 are 11 out of 15. Some 13 out of 16 had won over at least 3m.
SILVER TURNS TO GOLD
⭕ 3.05 Newcastle today I kick off with the novices’ hurdle at Newcastle where they host the only UK jumps meeting of the day after Market Rasen was abandoned.
It might not be that strong a heat – despite there being a field of 13 and Silver Hill looks set to dominate.
The Jamie Snowdon trained runner has won two of his five career starts and was only pipped by In The Age at Catterick on New Year’s Day and that rival has run well again since.
Irish raider Minella Supreme won a maiden hurdle at Kilbeggan last September but was bitterly disappointing when pulled up at Thurles last time out. There were no morning positives in terms of the Betdaq Betting Exchange market and he now comes into this with something to prove.
FOUND A GEM
⭕ 5.25 Wolverhampton It’s no surprise to see that the handicapper has reacted dramatically with Richard Hannon’s Gemmari who scooted home by six and a half lengths over this trip at Chelmsford last time out.
In reality it could have been a bigger winning margin and there was another 10 lengths back to third (checks notes to make sure it was a flat race!).
One mile Windsor winner Shrimp Shady is up in trip but weakened over 1m 4f here last time out so it’s not immediately clear how the extra two furlongs will suit tonight?
LIKE HIS STYLE
⭕ 8.00 Wolverhampton Richard Hannon also has strong claims here with market leader Magician Of Riga who starts handicapping after three runs on the turf where he managed to beat just one horse home.
Hardstyle is only a pound higher than Magician Of Riga (who has plenty to prove) and looks the better percentage call. He’s in good form but was stretched by the longer trip last time out.
DAQMAN’S BETS
on Betdaq Betting Exchange
★ 3.05 Newcastle (win 10, nap)
BET 7.7pts win SILVER HILL
5.25 Wolverhampton (win 10)
BET 3.0pts win GEMMARI
8.00 Wolverhampton (win 10)
BET 4.2pts win HARDSTYLE
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