4.7 NAP TO TURN OVER ODDS-ON SHOT: Daqman completes his weekend wrap and dares to try and topple a William Haggas odds-on shot at Newcastle today. It’s a 4.7 value nap on BETDAQ. He has three bets across the cards running in a space of 40 minutes.
TOMORROW AND THURSDAY: Big-race previews for Saturday at Cheltenham and Doncaster.
THE ABSOLUTE-FORTUNE COOKIES
Pub-quiz poser early for Christmas. Which horse, also trained by William Haggas, could be said to have been a million times better than Baaeed in the same retirement year?
In his career he won more races than Baaeed; he earned more than Baaeed; he won his swan-song; Baaeed didn’t. Both retired at the weekend.
The answer is Addeybb. He was a million better in terms of prizemoney. Career totals: Addeybb £3.6m; Baaeed £2.6m.
Baaeed, by Sea The Stars out of a Kingmambo mare, won 10 consecutive races but blew his farewell, when only fourth in the Champion Stakes on Saturday.
Addeybb, by Pivotal out of a Kingmambo mare, landed his 13th victory in a Group-2 bow-out at Longchamp on Sunday.
Both figured in Daqman’s Fortune Cookies, horses to follow which are at their best in Spring and summer, but which could have Auguste Rodin as a final fling in the Futurity on Saturday.
There will be a full report on Fortune Cookies at the end of the Flat season and a new list for the Jumps, no doubt containing Hewick.
Galway Plate hero, Hewick, trained in Ireland by ‘Shark’ O’Hanlon, won the £111k American Grand National at the weekend under Jordan Gainford.
The Cheltenham Gold Cup, which is on St Patrick’s Day (March 17) next year, is already seen as an Irish battle of the holder, A Plus Tard, and the year younger Hewick. But what will Fortune Cookies pick?
* Pub-quiz tie-breaker: which horse who also earned nearly a million more (£3.5m) and retired in the same year as Baaeed had the same sire, Sea The Stars? Answer: Stradivarius, who was a Fortune Cookie for more than two seasons.
RED IS HAPPY ON THE FIRM GROUND
Hard for horses and punters. The baton of what to do about small fields on the Flat this summer – angering racegoers and backers alike – has been passed to the Jumps.
After losing a meeting at Wincanton, we have one hanging on by the skin of its teeth because of firm ground at Exeter, with three events consisting of fields of two, three and four runners.. only one race all day has three places for each-way betting.
⭕ 2.15 Exeter In the last two years only five or six turned out for this Best Mate Chase (what an insult to the memory of the great horse); this year, even worse, there are four.
I’m opposing Mr Mafia, an old boy of 13 racing on a hard surface, and the favourite, Vision des Flos, who has won only one race at around this trip. It was a two-horse novices on heavy ground at Chepstow. You can’t get porridge thicker than that and the ’race’ was run 45 seconds slow.
Red Happy has won four times on good or firm ground and has 27-race experience despite being only five. Shantou Express has had just 14 starts, though two years older, and has never won a steeplechase.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 3.55 Red Happy
FUDGE FIT FOR A TOFFEE SURFACE
⭕ 2.55 Yarmouth From the sublime to the ridiculous, where eight races at Yarmouth on the Flat have a total of 93 runners on soft ground like toffee.
The nursery looks interesting but, like the first three novice races (yes, here we go again), we don’t have enough information in the form to know which ones will act on the soft.
The 3.25 handicap is similar in that we mostly have relatively unexposed second-season animals, many of them unused to cut in the ground.
So it was that I checked out this 1m 4f handicap and found Fillyfudge for trainer Amy Murphy (currently in form with 2-3) had run particularly well over today’s CD in a big field on a softish surface, third to one who went on to complete back-to-back strikes over a previous winner at Windsor.
BETDAQ value 5.0 Fillyfudge
CAPTURE 4.7 OFFERS ABOUT KINTA
⭕ 2.38 Newcastle For the nap, I’m going for Kinta, who didn’t run her race when I tipped her for the Lowther, and has been on holiday since, and comes back fresh. She had earlier been beaten only a length by Lezoo in a Group 3 at Ascot.
Now Lezoo went on to take the Cheveley Park (Group 1) at Newmarket last month, achieving a rating of 113.
If that line were repeated it would put Kinta half a stone up on William Haggas’s odds-on Alpha Capture, and she receives 5lb from that one under the conditions of the race.
Alpha Capture and Shouldvebeenaring are Listed level but Kinta’s education was 2-2 on man-made tracks. Never Just A Dream is 2-2 on AW as well, so I fear him more.
BETDAQ value 4.7 Kinta
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.15 Exeter (win 12)
BET 4.75pts win RED HAPPY
2.38 Newcastle (win 12, nap)
BET 3.25pts win KINTA
2.55 Yarmouth (win 12)
BET 3pts win FILLYFUDGE
⏰ 40-MINUTE TREBLE
1pt win the three above
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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