TRES-BON DAQMAN: ALL GUNS BLAZE Merci monsieur! That tres bon tipster Daqman has done it again at the start of the French Flat season, with his fourth Classic-trial winner out of five including back-to-back naps in the last two days.
Monday: 34.70 points profit on the day
WON 33-10 ARIZONA BLAZE (Chantilly nap)
WON 2-1 CAN’T BEAT HISTORY
Sunday: 12.6 points profit on the day
WON 9-4 SPORTINGSILVERMINE
WON 1-2 ZARIGANA (Longchamp supernap)
NEWMARKET CRAVEN MEETING: Classic-trials week: the Craven and the Nell Gwyn Stakes, for colts and immature fillies. And there’s rain about.
DARK HORSE ALREADY IN FORM
⭕ 1.50 Newmarket LAYS LOGIC Only one winning favourite in the decade; none with a double-figure draw.
Depends what’s favourite, of course, with William Haggas holding two hands, both with ace draws, both four-year-olds (they win more than half).
Elmonjed (Jim Crowley in 3) wears the Shadwell Estate blue, More Thunder (Tom Marquand in 1) a similar blue with yellow v-neck of Saeed Suhail.
Is More Thunder wearing a ‘v’ for victory in his first race for Haggas, after Suhail transferred his horses from Sir Michael Stoute?
Stoutie managed a low-level maiden with him but – according to the handicapper’s rigid 87 since July – with no further progress.
Elmonjed in blinkers raised his rating for class-2 wins back to back late last season but the blinkers, and earlier cheekpieces, are not declared for today.
Dark Thirty (5) won this race last year. He is already off the mark at Doncaster (Probe behind) and is not unduly penalised. BETDAQ 6.0.
Woodhay Wonder (6) landed a hat-trick here, scoring at the end of the 2023 season and twice at two of the Spring meetings at Newmarket. But his winning form is on firm ground.
FAVOURITE HAS POOR RECORD
⭕ 2.25 Newmarket (Feilden Stakes) LAYS LOGIC: A run of seven losing favourites may continue here, with the Frankel colt Sallaal (7 for Roger Varian) and Masai Moon (8 for Charlie Appleby) having the worst of the draw.
Despite small fields, winners at 11-1 and 22-1 in the sequence of seven confirm our adage of yesterday that last year’s form belongs to last year, not necessarily to this.
What adds to the puzzle is that the three top stables who have all scored in the Feilden of the last nine years have runners today: Appleby, Varian and Team Gosden (Frankel colt Nightwalker out of the 1 stall).
The leading turf yards this year, Andrew Balding (Almeric out of 3) and Karl Burke (Last Galileo 2), are also represented.
The good news is that BETDAQ offers add up to only 103%, so take your pick but keep stakes low.
FRIENDLY GOING FOR AMBIENTE
⭕ 3.00 Newmarket (Earl Of Sefton Stakes) Ottoman Fleet goes for a hat-trick and his trainer, Charlie Appleby, for a four-timer in this 1m 2f Group 3.
Ottoman Fleet, who is 4-5 on the course and fit from Meydan, loves to hear his feet rattle but the ‘good to firm’ forecast for today has been revised to ‘good to soft.’
The big danger – in fact, rated 5lb higher – is Ambiente Friendly, with James Owen 2-3 and with a 25% strike rate in the last two weeks.
He has had Ambiente Friendly only a few days but the colt’s Epsom Derby second to City Of Troy was on softish ground.
GODOLPHIN CHAPTER AND VERSE
⭕ 3.35 Newmarkt (Nell Gwyn Stakes) You can only guess the strength of the fillies at this stage before the sun is on their back and they grow up some more.
It’s like this you see. The top trainer with a Group-3 grade filly hopes he can win and then step her up to Classic level. Lesser stables want to win because it’s a chance for black type before the big guns bring out their best and swallow them up.
The last two Nell Gwyn girls finished 10th and 11th in the 1,000 Guineas but the year before that Cachet took George Boughey’s new outfit into the big time: won here, won the Guineas at 16-1.
Betdaq Betting Exchange : I have done well with Siyouni three-year-olds already this season; that would be Godolphin’s Verse Of Love (3.1 favourite). Andrew Balding is in such form that Remaat might pay each way at 28.0 with 4.5 the place.
Yes, she’s back from injury but was put away for several months and he is confident of her level: this and more.
DAQMAN’S BETS on Betdaq Betting Exchange
1.50 Newmarket (win 20)
BET 4pts win DARK THIRTY
3.00 Newmarket (win 15, nap)
★ BET 7pts win AMBIENTE FRIENDLY
3.35 Newmarket (win 12, win 40)
BET 6pts win VERSE OF LOVE
BET 1pt win and 4pts place REMAAT
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