RACING RETURNS TO NEWMARKET FOR THE ENGLISH FLAT SEASON: You’ll meet some strangers today and one or two old friends are back. Beware of the young ones aged three, who could have improved over the winter. Be just as wary of handicaps until the form has settled down. But be glad to be back at Newmarket, home of English Flat racing.
DERBY AND ROYAL ASCOT HOPEFULS ARE DAY-1 OPPORTUNITIES: Daqman has three bets with a stakes balance so that one winner will just about pay for the day, but with an order of preference according to strength. It’s a day for looking to the future with Aidan O’Brien, John Gosden, Charles Hills, Michael Bell, Mark Johnston and Roger Varian. Daqman finds a Derby outsider and one with Royal Ascot potential.
EARLY-BIRD HINT FOR THE HUNT CUP
⭕ 2.10 Newmarket Charles Hills does well at this meeting and Mutasaabeq can upset the favourite, Duke Of Mantua, who is now equipped with a tongue-tie by Aidan O’Brien, who has dropped him from his Guineas list.
Noble Dynasty’s Kempton form was franked in the autumn and Duke Of Mantua has already raced, a handicap third when the Curragh opened for business.
But Mutasaabeq went into my notebook as a potential Early Bird for 2021 after one run, one win, on this Rowley Mile course in October.
A close relative of the trainer’s Royal Hunt Cup winner, Afaaq, the dam, Ghanaati, won the 1,000 Guineas for Charles’s father, Barry Hills.
Mutasaabeq was ultra smooth and clearly an athlete in love with the game on this course, over this trip, and I can see Royal Hunt Cup written on his box.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 4.0 Mutasaabeq
MAXI’S THE BOY TO FLY HOME FRESH
⭕ 2.45 Newmarket Those worried about a front-run from Mark Johnston’s Overwrite should note that hold-up horses have won all three runnings of this race on the Rowley mile.
Overwrite’s win record is on the kinky tracks of Brighton and Windsor not in the wide-open spaces.
In fact, overall, it’s hard to contemplate backing an animal whose rating has yo-yo’d gently within the confines of 5lb in 10 consecutive races without success.
The race brings together the Lincoln Handicap third, Hortzader, and the November Handicap runner-up, Rhythmic Intent.
The Stuart Williams entire has won over 1m 5f at Newbury but was narrowly beaten there over a mile on the straight course last June after scoring over 1m 2f at York, another track with a long straight.
The Newbury and York strikes were both under Oisin Murphy, who is back in his saddle today and would benefit from a front-run by Overwrite.
Murphy clearly wants to keep his ride on this one – for today’s or a future date – as suggested by his deserting his Ascot straight-mile winner Makram, who was winning after a long break that day.
Jason Watson (currently 0-5 for Roger Charlton) is on Makram, with the stable only 1-11. For that reason, I’m out, as they say the Dragons say.
I just prefer Maxi Boy, who ran a cracker after a long break at this level at Lingfield in October after spending most of his time in Group-2 contests. Stable in form and Maxi doesn’t stand much racing, so today has to be the day.
Betdaq value 6.4 Maxi Boy
OVER TO CHAMPION: ROGER AND OUT
⭕ 3.20 Newmarket (Feilden Stakes) Royal Champion is one of the many hidden three-year-olds just emerging in the trials and big-field maidens.
I single this colt out because Roger Varian is leading trainer at the Craven meeting with 10 winners in the decade, twice the total of anyone else, so clearly targets the three days.
In fact, he’s chalked up 50 winners on the Rowley Mile course overall in five years for £1.75m in prizemoney, second only to his Ascot bag.
For me, the best Early Bird trainer is one with credentials for the meeting but also in form at the time, and the Carlburg stable figures for April look good at 1202133222101, which reduce to 211 on turf. On the money almost every time.
Royal Champion is very likely to step forward from his autumn debut win, as a son of Shamardal whose dam is a half-sister to Dubawi. That shouts progressive on both sides of his pedigree, and he could go and win the Dante if this first step to the Derby is successful.
Highland Avenue is similarly connected on breeding (sire Dubawi; dam’s sire Shamardal), and looked impressive in the ‘Road To The Kentucky Derby’ race at Kempton in early March but it transpires that he ‘beat nothing well’. Second and third have both flopped since.
John Gosden has won the Feilden three years in the last five – one of them with Golden Horn! – but the new ‘John and Thady’ Team Gosden will saddle a gelding (yes, gelding) in New Treasure.
New Treasure, fourth in the Anglesey for Jim Bolger in October, has been placed already in two Derbys this year, if you can call them Derbys.
One was run over a mile (the Saudi Derby, a conditions race) and one over just short of 1m 2f (the UAE Derby, Group 2) at Riyadh and Meydan, both on Dirt.
Those efforts give him or rating alongside Fancy Man, who has won a soft-ground Listed at Haydock.
I say ‘alongside’ but it works out like this: New Treasure is rated 105, a pound behind Fancy Man but receiving 3lb because Fancy Man carries a penalty.
That says it all, a Listed-level player giving weight to a Group-3 winner placed in two Derbys.
The New Treasure form does not often transfer to the UK, certainly not at the same level, and Frankie Dettori swerves a third ride on him; in fact, he has no booked mounts this week at all.
Arturo Toscanini is tongue-tied for his second appearance, but his conductor, Aidan O’Brien, has also pencilled him in for the Dante.
Betdaq value 3.5 Royal Champion (BETDAQ Sportsbook Derby ante-post 26.0)
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.10 Newmarket (win 15)
BET 5pts win MUTASAABEQ
2.45 Newmarket (win 12)
BET 2.25pts win MAXI BOY
3.20 Newmarket (win 20, nap)
BET 8pts win ROYAL CHAMPION
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