BANK HOLIDAY DOUBLE FOR DAQMAN: Daqman, who napped Elim (WON 15-8) on Sunday, made a Bank Holiday Monday profit on the day with two winners at Windsor.
WON 9-2 FAST STEPS
WON 5-2 INDIAN CREAK BETDAQ 4.4. taken
COUNTDOWN TO THE GUINEAS: Ratings and BETDAQ betting for the 15 acceptors for Saturday’s 2,000 Guineas.
TODAY’S BETS: Three selections including a Nottingham NAP in the Listed race.
O’BRIEN BIG TWO WILL CLASH
⭕ 4.40 Newmarket, Saturday (2,000 Guineas) The Ballydoyle pair, Auguste Rodin and Little Big Bear, will clash in the first Classic, with Ryan Moore likely to ride Rodin, the favourite.
There are 15 colts left in Saturday’s 2,000 Guineas. In ratings order, they are:
124 LITTLE BIG BEAR (Aidan O’Brien) Swerved the main Classic route of National Stakes and Dewhurst but landed a hat-trick of juvenile tests – Windsor Castle, Anglesey and Phoenix Stakes – in which his victims now look ordinary. This is the one if the Guineas turned into a sprint. BETDAQ 6.0.
119 CHALDEAN (Andrew Balding) Four-timer as a juvenile, including the Acomb Stakes, Champagne and Dewhurst, beating Indestructible at York, Indestructible and Silver Knott at Doncaster. Strong market support before the Greenham but Frankie Dettori fell off at the start after ‘a bump.’ Chaldean is the best of British. BETDAQ 6.8.
118 AUGUSTE RODIN (Aidan O’Brien) Son of Rhododendron, sister of Magical. Soft-ground hat-trick, culminating in ready Futurity defeat of Epictetus (Listed winner this year), who had split Silver Knott and Holloway Boy at Newmarket earlier in October. Reckoned a Triple Crown horse by his trainer. BETDAQ 3.0.
118 ROYAL SCOTSMAN (Paul and Oliver Cole) Beaten eight lengths by Noble Style in the Gimcrack (6f) but – though held – got within half a length of Chaldean in the Dewhurst (7f). BETDAQ 8.8.
117 NOBLE STYLE (Charlie Appleby) Unbeaten (in three starts) Kingman colt who won the Gimcrack (6f) going away. BETDAQ 12.0.
115 SILVER KNOTT (Charlie Appleby) BETDAQ 11.0. See Chaldean and Auguste Rodin
114 DUBAI MILE (Charlie Johnston) Runner-up last September to The Foxes, before winning the Criterium de Saint-Cloud (1m 2f) on heavy. BETDAQ 38.0.See Indestructible.
114 SAKHEER (Roger Varian) Mill Reef Stakes winner from one subsequently beaten twice at Listed level, with stablemate Charyn third. Unexposed with stamina doubt. BETDAQ 6.2. See Charyn.
112 INDESTRUCTIBLE (Karl Burke) Ex-Irish, won the Craven Stakes – first start for new yard – from The Foxes. BETDAQ 16.0. See Chaldean and Dubai Mile.
110 CHARYN (Roger Varian) Won Criterium de Maisons-Laffitte (6f soft) at Chantilly in the autumn and runner-up in last month’s Greenham (also soft) to one who finished last in the Dewhurst. BETDAQ 31.0.
109 HOLLOWAY BOY (Karl Burke) Third to Silver Knott at Newmarket and then to Auguste Rodin in the Futurity when visored first time. BETDAQ 26.0. See Auguste Rodin.
107 CAIRO (Aiden O’Brien) His Galileo dam is sister to Gustav Klimt. Won a Group 3 at Leopardstown in October (very soft) and easily won a Listed at Dundalk, prepping for the UAE Derby, in which he started favourite despite fast ground but weakened well out of it. BETDAQ 47.0.
102 FLIGHT PLAN (Karl Burke) Runner-up in a Listed (1m) at Newcastle last month. BETDAQ 47.0.
097 GALERON (Charles Hills) Sixth to Noble Style in the Gimcrack but won the Goffs Million at the Curragh (soft) in September from 103-rated Hellsing, who had run second in the Group-3 Tyros Stakes to subsequent National Stakes runner-up, Proud And Regal.
That one won the Saint-Cloud Criterium from an Aiden O’Brien 112-rated, Dante entry Espionage. BETDAQ Sportsbook 90.0.
091 HI ROYAL (Kevin Ryan) No more than a handicapper at this stage. BETDAQ 70.0.
LYRA LOOKS THE GOLDEN TICKET
⭕ 4.10 Nottingham (Nottinghamshire Oaks Stakes Listed) A decent 1m 2f race for fillies and mares on this afternoon’s Nottingham card in which the three market principals on Betdaq Betting Exchange are all making their seasonal reappearance.
Official ratings are always an interesting starting point for races like this and if the handicapper is right Golden Lyra (106) is someway ahead of Crystal Caprice (101) and Misty Dancer (94) with the trio all enjoying good campaigns last season.
Of course it’s never as easy as figures alone and a big factor today will be the forecast soft ground.
It shouldn’t inconvenience any of the three but arguably might suit Golden Lyra the best as she handled heavy when winning a Listed race at Saint-Cloud on her final start. ‘Heavy’ in France basically translates as bottomless so she’ll have no stamina worries whatsoever.
Crystal Caprice represents Sir Michael Stoute who has a good record in this race but she is the only one of the three to be facing soft for the first time and was disappointing at Lingfield when last seen out. She lost her action on All Weather Finals day.
Misty Dancer was a class 4 handicap winner on soft ground at Newbury but this looks tougher.
It’s a good race but I think the market (and the figures) have got it right with Golden Lyra and she looks the percentage call.
IRISH STAR ON HORIZON
⭕ 5.10 Nottingham Irish raider Starnight caught my eye on her latest start at the Curragh and this looks a much easier assignment.
A lightly raced sort, she recovered from a slow start and was staying on to good effect near the finish to be beaten six lengths.
The much smaller field might help today and she will love the ground. Big question mark in this area over market rival Ghost Lights who is making his turf debut.
Silks Graphite ran his best race to date when second on similar ground at Yarmouth last time out but this looks a stronger heat and trainer form would be a concern for him.
DON’T BE SHY OF COCONUT
⭕ 6.20 Newcastle We Still Believe heads the market but is probably best watched on his first start since finishing lame just 19 days ago here.
In any event he his 3lb higher than when scoring a narrow course and distance success previously and looks vulnerable.
The race is nicely set up for a place play with the dead eight runners and I thought the filly Coconut Bay could outrun her odds. A Lingfield winner last year she hasn’t been beaten far in her races since and if you are prepared to forgive her heavy ground flop last time out she brings a level of consistency that the others simply don’t have.
DAQMAN’S BETS
4.10 Nottingham (win 10, nap)
BET 5.2pts win GOLDEN LYRA
5.10 Nottingham (win 10)
BET 4pts win STARNIGHT
6.30 Newcastle (win 20, place 10)
BET 1pt win, 5pts place COCONUT BAY
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