BACK-TO-BACK NAPS FOR DAQMAN: Daqman, who spotted unraced Sir John Hawkins (WON 2-1) as his Sunday nap, followed up with a Bank Holiday best bet, Madam Quilla (WON 15-8), in the last at Windsor yesterday.
30.0 BELL FILLY COULD RING UP X-FACTOR OAKS SHOCK: 20-1 shots are going for a hat-trick in the Oaks, and Daqman puts up an outsider’s X-Factor in his guide to Friday’s race. It points to the two Michael Bell fillies, being offered at 30.0 and 27.0 on BETDAQ this morning. Says Bell: ‘Both are sure to stay and entitled to run very well.’
ABC GUIDE TO THE FILLIES’ CLASSIC: Now here’s his full ABC check on the way the Oaks runners fit the stats for quality, form and status, including that X-Factor:
A Rated at least 99 (9 out of 10)
B Two to five previous races (8 out of 10)
C Group placed or Listed win or placed (10 out of 10)
D Always in the frame (8 out of 10)
E Stallions’ stamina index: 8.3 to 11.1 (7 out of 10)
X The X-factor ingredients of three winning outsiders in the last five years (20-1, 20-1 and 33-1) were that all three had just two or three runs, and were beaten at Listed or Group level.
ABCDE LIBER NAUTICUS Daughter of Azamour, whose best results are with fillies: Valyra (Group 1), Shankardeh (Group 2) and Eleanora Duse (Group 2 for Sir Michael Stoute, trainer of Liber Nauticus).
Stoute knows both sides of the family well, as the dam is related to Conduit, massively improved by Stoute from handicapping to become winner of the St Leger and the King George.
A big, strong sort, as you’d expect of that breeding, Liber Nauticus might be better suited to the Irish Oaks at The Curragh but her career path gives her the chance of greatness from Epsom Oaks to Irish (July 20), with the Ribblesdale (June 20) as a safety net.
Though very green, she needed only a couple of slaps to take her maiden last backend from a filly who has run second in the Classic-trial Height Of Fashion Stakes at Goodwood this Spring.
Liber Nauticus went for the Musidora but was not impressive in winning it from an 85-rated handicapper, sweating up beforehand and finding her stride late in a slow-run race on tacky ground.
The third filly home might have helped a bit in normal circumstances, as she had earlier finished runner-up to the subsequent Height Of Fashion winner, but that winner was also trained by Stoute and with whom he got a line to Bannofee in the Cheshire Oaks.
ABCDE MOTH By Galileo, sire of Frankel and New Approach and back in the limelight in the last few days with Magician. On the dam’s side related to Sail, the Cheshire Oaks winner for Ballydoyle who flopped in the Epsom Oaks; in fact, failed to win another race.
Moth’s seasonal-debut maiden win was hailed as impressive but the form has been let down by the second and third.
However, her third, finishing well (hampered), in the Newmarket 1,000 Guineas on better ground was boosted when the runner-up won the Irish equivalent at the weekend.
ABCDE SECRET GESTURE Six of the last 10 Oaks winners had won or been placed at only Listed level, and Secret Gesture’s Lingfield Listed success was by 10 lengths over a 93-rated.
As a result, the handicapper marked her up to 111, which is 4lb clear top in this field and only that much behind leading Derby hope Battle Of Marengo.
Secret Gesture is another Gallileo but, theoretically, with a more illustrious family on the distaff side, her Danehill dam being a half-sister to Arc winner Sagamix, though Secret Gesture is only the third foal.
Her trainer, Ralph Beckett, won the Oaks with Look Here, who could finish only second in that same Lingfield race, which has a name – Lingfield Oaks Trial – now seeming more appropriate by the hour.
ABCE ROZ A Teofilo filly, first foal of a mare by Anabaa, the sire of the amazing miler Goldikova. Teofilo’s best have won up to 11 furlongs.
Despite finishing second in the Fillies’ Mile last season, suggesting she had class and stamina, Roz went to post for the Newmarket 1,000 Guineas a 33-1 shot and ran like one, fading at the business end of the race, a long way behind Moth and Snow Queen.
ACE SNOW QUEEN Looks exposed as Group 3 at best after 10 races already and after consecutive defeats in the Leopardstown 1,000 Guineas and the two fillies’ Guineas themselves, the 1,000 at both Newmarket and The Curragh.
Sister to milers and dam’s best were milers, but finished well at Newmarket and her sire has got one or two class horses that stayed 12 furlongs (Planteur).
BCDE BANOFFEE Cheshire Oaks success didn’t cut much ice with the handicapper, who has her down on 93, though that’s still better than half this field and connections were impressed enough to pay £30,000 to supplement her for Friday.
Out of another Anabaa mare (see Roz), and related to 1m 2f winners, while sire Hurricane Run has yet to get a Group-1 winner.
BCDEX MADAME DEFARGE Dam half-sister to an Oaks and Leger winner but relatives have so far won up to a mile. Best get of sire Motivator like 1m 2f and he has only one Group-1 winner.
Promising third in the Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket (1m 2f) at the Guineas meeting, in which Magic Of Reality was beaten a similar distance to that of her defeat by Banoffee.
Around 27.0 on BETDAQ this morning but that third gives her the X-Factor, since it was a Listed race and she came to it after just one run – one win – as a two-year-old. Fillies can be real little madames!
BCDE TALENT Stable second string in the market to Secret Gesture but Richard Hughes booked and in the front half of the field on official ratings after taking the Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket from a filly who beat Secret Gesture as a two-year-old. Madame Defarge was third.
Talent is by New Approach from a mare related to an Oaks winner but her half-sister, Skilful, is no more than a good handicapper.
BCDX THE LARK The second Michael Bell filly (following Madame Defarge) to ‘earn’ the X-Factor, having also been beaten in a Listed, only the third run of her life.
The handicapper was a little more complimentary, awarding her 93, the same mark as Banoffee but she’s from a 7.8-stamina stallion, Pivotal, whose progeny usually want soft ground.
However, the dam won up to 1m 6f and is half-sister to an Oaks winner. There are 30.0 offers on BETDAQ, as I write.
BCE GERTRUDE VERSED Half-sister to Gertrude Bell, winner of the Cheshire Oaks and Lancashire Oaks and fourth in the real thing at Epsom behind Snow Fairy (2010).
Had won only a Kempton AW class-5 maiden when she herself lined up for the Cheshire Oaks but Gertrude Versed stepped up a good 11lb by running second to Banoffee, if the handicapper is correct. Fourth home was the subsequent Height Of Fashion winner.
BE SAY Yet another Galileo, related to middle-distance winners, who has improved from seemingly nothing of note until hammering a small field at Cork this month but in very slow time.
C MISS YOU TOO A Montjeu, related to middle-distance winners but looks exposed after nine races, and was 10 lengths off Secret Gesture when runner-up in the Lingfield Oaks Trial.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3.7pts win EASTWARD HO and 2.7pts win INGLEBY ANGEL (3.10 Redcar)
BET 6.2pts win NESTON GRACE (3.20 Newton Abbot)
BET 3.2pts win EMERALD SEA (8.10 Yarmouth)
BET 5.4pts win (nap) PRESTO VOLANTE (8.20 Lingfield)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pt win doubles and 1pt win treble NESTON GRACE (3.20 Newton Abbot), IF SO (6.20 Lingfield) and PRESTO VOLANTE (8.20 Lingfield)
DAQMAN’S TARGET: Moderate racing. Bets staked to win 20 points, except Daq Multiples. One winner in the singles covers all other singles stakes.
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