CLASSIC COUNTDOWN: Check out your fancies in the Oaks (Friday) and the Derby (Saturday) with Daqman’s famous ABC stats and facts guides to the classics.
DERBY FIELD OF 17: Thursday’s ABC on the Derby should concern 17 runners after the supplementing of Chester Vase runner-up Romsdal by trainer John Gosden.
OAKS ABC GUIDE Today Daqman features the Oaks, where one of four supplemented – Anipa, Honor Bound, Lily Rules and Marsh Daisy – is another big-value BETDAQ offer.
PLAY 43.0 ANIPA FOR THE OAKS
A: Winner over a mile or more (20/20)
B: Ran in the last five weeks (20/20)
C: Between 2 and 6 career starts (19/20)
D: Winner in the Pattern, Listed plus (18/20)
E: Rated 94-107 (18/20, some notional)
F: Stallion index 8.8f plus (15/20)
ABCDEF Dazzling
Galileo filly related to milers (sister to Irish 2,000 Guineas winner, Roderic O’Connor) and, though Aidan O’Brien’s belief that she’d get further seemed justified at Navan (10f) first run back, she was well beaten by Tarfasha in the all-aged Blue Wind at Naas.
ABCDEF Honor Bound
Half-sister by Authorized to Irish Derby winner, Treasure Beach. Not straightforward and a lazy worker at home but that did not stop her taking the Lingfield Oaks Trial. Has given trouble in the stalls.
ABCDEF Madame Chiang
Related to stayers of no particular merit but won the Musidora from Lily Rules and Regardez in fine style under Kieren Fallon. Likes plenty of cut.
ABCDEF Taghrooda
Shamkiyr, second in Sunday’s French Derby, is the best Sea The Stars so far. Taghrooda ran away with the Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket and has stamina on the dam’s side but, though she’s a big girl, she is thought to need a sound surface.
ABCDEF Volume
This will be a balancing act but no one better to keep a big filly on an even keel than Richard Hughes. She is tough, has a high cruising speed, won the Swettenham trial at Newbury and has bags of stamina on the dam’s side.
ABDEF Anipa
Another Sea The Stars, with stamina on the dam’s side. Improved 24lb out of a handicap to win the Cheshire Oaks, and continues to surprise connections at home. Not very big but has a big heart. Anipa was a massive price at offers of 43.0 on BETDAQ this morning. She is 12-1 in a place with the bookmakers and quoted 16-1 by the shrewdest of them all, Ladbrokes.
ABCDE Marsh Daisy
Another late developer, raised 17lb for winning the old Lupe (Height Of Fashion) Stakes at Goodwood. She likes soft ground, as befits a Pivotal, who usually gets them up to 10f, but one daughter, Sariska, won both the English and Irish Oaks.
ABCDF Marvellous
One of my horses to follow, foolishly written off by me and many punters after being beaten by Bracelet in the Leopardstown 1,000 Guineas Trial, only to win the real thing at the Curragh (soft) after it was revealed that she was coughing at the start of the season (thanks then, Aidan). By Galileo, first foal of a sister to Giant’s Causeway (10f).
ABCDF Tarfasha
Teofilio filly with stamina in abundance on the dam’s side is said to need drying ground but smoothly won the (all-age) Blue Wind at Naas (Dazzling third) on yielding-soft.
ABCEF Palace
Dam unraced daughter of high-class miler, and sire’s best get 10f maximum. A lot to find on her fifth to Marvellous in the Curragh Guineas.
ABCF Inchila
Dylan Thomas filly with stamina on the dam’s side but did not appear progressive when fifth to Volume in the Swettenham trial.
ABCF Regardez
Same owner and trainer as Look Here, hence the name, but looked unlikely to emulate the 2008 Oaks winner when well beaten in the Musidora.
ABD Ihtimal
This Godolphin daughter of Shamardal (dam half-sister to French Oaks winner) did the UAE Guineas-Oaks double at Meydan and her third to Miss France in the Newmarket 1,000 Guineas was franked by the runner-up’s filling the same spot in the Irish version behind Marvellous.
ABF Island Remede
Ed Dunlop has had a poor year so far (1-53 on turf up to Monday) and this Lingfield Oaks Trial fifth is unlikely to change his luck after nine starts.
BCDEF Bracelet
Montjeu filly – dam related to Sea The Stars – won the Leopardstown 1,000 Guineas Trial in the mud but flopped (14th of 17) in the Newmarket Classic.
BCDF Tapestry
Another 1,000 Guineas flop for Aidan O’Brien (last of the 17) and her Moyglare defeat of Rizeena was on firm ground. A Galileo but a miler on the dam’s side.
BCF Momentous
A Montjeu with stamina on the dam’s side. A big filly, still green, but ran on well, third to Honor Bound, in the Lingfield Oaks Trial.
BDEF Wonderfully
A Galileo out of a Danehill mare, whose best filly won the Saint-cloud Criterium and has not revealed a propensity for stamina in her produce. Well out the back behind Marvellous in the French 1,000 Guineas.
BEF Lily Rules
Second to Madame Chiang in the Musidora but that was her 10th start. Prefers soft ground.
CDE Amazing Maria
Frankie Dettori’s mount for a stable out of form. Sire Mastercraftsman landed Sunday’s French Derby and she is highly regarded. Trainer thought it ‘a terrible shame’ that she had to miss the Guineas (scoped badly).
JACK LOOKS ALL RIGHT AT RIPON
SUITS you, sir! In thinking I’ll oppose the older horses – aged nine, 10 (twice) and 11 – in the Wilmot-Smith Memorial at Ripon (3.55), I am reminded that Suits Me won the race last year when a 10-year-old. That was Suits Me’s first run of the season, as now, and he got all his own way in front. There’s nothing to match him for early pace in this, according to the form book, and it will be tough for the other old boys and for Hit The Jackpot, raised 13lb for his hat-trick bid.
It should all play into the hands of Bold Prediction and Ginger Jack. The first of this pair is a not-so-bold bet, since he’s favourite early mouse, on the strength of two good runs under Joey Haynes a grade higher in class 2.
But he’s never won right-handed and I think it might be Ginger Jack’s turn at 7.8 on BETDAQ, as I write. A June course winner here, he was just run out of it over CD on his reappearance and his last run a class higher can be ignored, as he was ridden to get the trip (1m 2f).
William Haggas should open the meeting with a winner and continue his current sequence of 11311211. He’s booked Graham Gibbons for Adulation, a rare partnership which is two from two.
Adulation (2.25), a 27,000-euro yearling, looked so very much the part that her price rocketed to 150,000gns, bought by the Cheveley Park Stud as a two-year-old. Could be anything, as they say.
There are a few trainers who could benefit from the Saga Holidays Handicap (4.40) at Brighton! The collection of tired losers includes Linda Jewell, who has never had a winner on the course in 56 attempts.
Laura Mongan has had 37 runners ‘down the pan’ in 2,921 days; Zoe Davison 43 losers in 1,496 days, if the Racing Post ‘trainers off course’ list is to be believed.
In the same race, there are three yards on the cold list: Daniel Loughnane (55 losers in 111 days), Roger Curtis (33 in 192) and Michael Attwater (34 in 66).
If you also take out the 11-year-old, One Way Or Another, who has had his win, you have in theory turned a 114% ‘book’ of offers in the orange to a can’t-lose 100-68 underround.
Of course, one of the worms could fly from the woodwork, suddenly inspired on a warm wet day, but form is the only way to bet. CD winner Lutine Charlie (a handsome 10.0 on BETDAQ) has his ground; the firmer the better. Oisin Murphy booked.
One Pekan (6.55 Yarmouth) has his best opportunity tonight, dropped back to his winning trip of a mile after going close over further in better company.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 8pts win (nap) ADULATION (2.25 Ripon)
BET 3pts win GINGER JACK and 2.7pts win SUITS ME (3.55 Ripon)
BET 2pts win and place LUTINE CHARLIE (4.40 Brighton)
BET 6.6pts win ONE PEKAN (6.55 Yarmouth)
ANTE-POST: BET 1pt win ANIPA at 43.0 (Oaks Friday)
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