GRAND NATIONAL COUNTDOWN: After six winning Easter bets, Daqman turns to analysis of Saturday’s Grand National at Liverpool.
TODAY: ante-post bet at 27.0
TOMORROW: ABC guide.
TUESDAY: Daqman spots a WIN 50 opportunity at Pontefract where his nap also runs.
TAKE CAPODANNO: BETDAQ 27.0
FIFTY LEFT IN There were no fancied withdrawals from Saturday’s Grand National yesterday. Among the 50 left, Our Power gets into the top-40 cut with bottomweight.
Our Power is one of the stars of the burgeoning Glamorgan yard of Sam Thomas and its biggest money-earner this season, after winning the London Gold Cup at Ascot in October and the Kempton Trophy in February, with a 119-day holiday in between.
That sent his rating soaring to 147 but he gets in off 141 at Liverpool. Like four out of seven of the most recent National winners, he is an eight-year-old.
Our Power will get only 5lb from the National favourite, Corach Rambler, who gets in 10lb below his future ratings.
Corach Rambler has won three consecutive races at Cheltenham for Lucinda Russell, including the Ultima twice at the festival.
Corach Rambler and Capodanno (‘top of the year to you!’) will be running for FORTUNE COOKIES in Saturday’s big race.
I’ll take the 27.0 BETDAQ offers Capodanno ante-post, having watched his lucky owner, J P McManus, win the Irish version yesterday with I Am Maximus, having his first run in the famous green and gold.
The race seemed lost until an inspired ride by Paul Townend drew him alongside the leader at the last, as if to say ‘I Am Maximus’, king of the gladiators!
Just ask J P or the Marcus Aurelius of Irish racing, Willie Mullins; yes, the trainer of the winner, yet again
Just a word, Willie: may we please have P Townend riding for us on Saturday. After all, a 20-point Fortune Cookie on your horse to win 520 points would be the paper punt of a lifetime.
COQUELICOT TO CONQUER
⭕ 3.00 Pontefract The marathon trips at Ponty have always been up there with my favourite races to analyse. Usually because you can rule a fair few out on stamina grounds especially when, like today, it’s forecast soft ground.
That’s definitely the case here and it’s hard to oppose Coquelicot who hails from Anthony Honeyball’s yard who have had three winners from their last 12 runners.
One of those was indeed the mare Coquelicot who races under the statutory 4lb penalty following her comfortable success at Nottingham last week. She stayed on in terrific style over two miles that day, on the same soft ground and the 4lb extra is unlikely to halt her progress with the handicapper likely to take a tougher view.
The Racing Post called her win ‘grinding it out‘ – it didn’t look that way to my eyes as she had plenty in hand.
As a multiple winner over hurdles she won’t lack anything in the stamina department – she has a 2m 7f Chepstow win to her name on fairly bottomless ground.
Flint Hill is the chief market rival on the Betdaq Betting Exchange and he is a regular here. He’s also won twice at Pontefract over 2m+ but on good to firm and good to soft ground. I would just worry about the deeper conditions this afternoon as he was beaten 20 lengths (4th of 5) on his only previous run on soft ground here.
DO YOUR REVISION
⭕ 4.00 Pontefract This race is dominated by trainers who are struggling to see the target at the moment let alone hit it.
In betting order:
Project Black Bryan Smart (0 from last 5)
Prairie Falcon Michael Dods (0 from last 23)
Amy Santiago Richard Fahey (1 from last 17)
California Gem George Boughey (3 from last 28)
Hour By Hour Iain Jardine (0 from last 19)
Revision Kevin Ryan (3 from last 16)
Boughey and Ryan aside, that can’t fill you with much hope and Boughey’s runner here California Gem is reappearing after a 167 day break.
I thought Revision (Ryan) looked hugely over-priced at around 20.0 on Betdaq.
He ran well on debut at Haydock on soft ground and his latest effort at Kempton reads well enough in the context of this race. The current price is well over IMO prompting a WIN 50 bet and a WIN 20 on the place market too.
DO YOUR REVERSION
⭕ 8.30 Wolverhampton Watch your bets! Reversion is speculative but has been hinting at a return to form and the booking of Oisin Murphy for the first time might do the trick.
He was value for much more than the four lengths he was beaten by here last month having lost loads of ground at the start.
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.00 Pontefract (win 10, nap)
BET 12pts win COQUELICOT
4.00 Pontefract (win 50 on win bet and win 20 on place)
BET 2.5pts win and 5.7pts place REVISION
8.30 Pontefract (win 20)
BET 4pts win REVERSION
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