APACHE TO GET DON POLI SCALP! Daqman votes for two of the three odds-on favourites on the opening day at Punchestown but opposes one of them, Don Poli, with 7.2 shot this morning, Apache Stronghold, and the prospects of rain hold him off banker bets altogether, with the going unclear.
DAQMAN TAKES 7.6 FOR THE NAP: Daqman’s nap is 7.6 on BETDAQ this morning and he’s tilting at the layers even further with 15.5, 16.0, 16.5 and 24.0 taken, including in the big handicap, where he challenges the trade-paper’s Pricewise (current scores 14-4 to Daqman).
HE’S SOME ARTICLE AT 15.5 OFFERS ON BETDAQ!
3.40 Punchestown (Ladies Perpetual Cup) Among Enda Bolger’s eight wins in this since 1997 – stable form figures in the decade 142211311 – was a six-year-old ridden by Nina Carberry which was without a win under Rules.
Wish Ye Didn’t, a similar sort, has become the first of three odds-on shots in the opening skirmishes of this Punchestown Festival.
In fact, she might already have scored at Clonmel in February but for unseating rider at the last.
Enniskillen, whose trainer has also won this 3m banks chase, was third in a cross-country here two years ago and is a winner since over 3m on the Punchestown Points course.
I could get around 3-1 a place Enniskillen (17.5 in the orange) on BETDAQ, with three chances of a return to Wish Ye Didn’t’s one chance to win.
4.20 Punchestown (Champion Novice Hurdle) This has just produced back-to-back champion hurdlers at Cheltenham in Jezki and Faugheen, following on the example set by Hurricane Fly (2009).
And you have the Cheltenham problem all over again about Willie Mullins’ wonders – not for the last time today – do you bet odds on?
The Supreme Novice winner, Douvan, is likely to be too short for a single bet but I shall try to obtain a bit of leverage in my Daq Multiples by including him as the hub.
4.55 Punchestown Eight of the 10 winners in the decade have carried 10st 7lb or less, starting at big odds, among them winners for Willie Mullins at 10-1 and 20-1.
Six of the 10 were youngsters aged six or seven, and I’m immediately attracted to one trained by Thomas Mullins, whose Kilkenny outfit has a massive 25% hurdles strike-rate.
The horse, Some Article, won the big bumper here (6.05 on the card today), and broke his hurdles maiden over the Punchestown CD. He’s done nothing but improve ever since, if the handicapper is right in raising him 11lb.
He recently won a Fairyhouse Grade B from the Irish November Handicap winner who had also finished third in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham.
That makes him some article! Yet I could get 15.5 on BETDAQ over my waffles (This column has done so well that I’ve given up my cornflakes, and on posh summer days I’ll even be having brioche).
It’s a big field, so we need another bet or two for insurance in case some other article (!) knocks our one over, or out of his stride.
Mark Walsh on Henry Higgins (third in March in a novice Listed after a break) has a good record for Charles O’Brien, but the stable can’t even get one placed at the moment.
Last year’s winner, Cool Macavity (7lb higher this time around and doesn’t want the rain) was not disgraced after a break in the Scottish Champion Hurdle, and Nicky Henderson – six wins in seven days – is in fine form.
Fethard Player had also had a holiday before his narrow defeat by Astre De La Cour at Aintree but can’t beat Waxies Dargle on Down Royal form.
It’s last-chance saloon for Waxies Dargle (excuses last twice, including not act at Cheltenham) at 24.0 on BETDAQ this morning, and 16.0 the grey Rupert Lamb (22lb below his chase rating) appeals for a horse brought back to his best at home and with Ruby Walsh doing only 10st 3lb.
FELIX YONGER TO RELISH STIFF PUNCHESTOWN 2m
5.30 Punchestown (Champion Chase) Only Sprinter Sacre in his prime could stop a Sizing Europe hat-trick in this, and the old boy’s overall form at Punchestown, still standing, is 124111323211121. Just a place today would be a remarkable swansong.
It’s an open contest, which depends partly on how much rain has fallen by teatime. Most of these have run their best races on soft-heavy and, if the ‘good to yielding’ remains, we could be in for a surprise result.
Officially, it’s a triple dead-heat (162 each) on the ratings between Champagne Fever, Mallowney and Twinlight.
Hidden Cyclone fell when favourite to beat Sizing Europe and Twinlight (last of six) in this race last year but he was cut down by Twinlight at Leopardstown and his revenge over CD at Punchestown in the Tied Cottage was largely due to an 8lb pull.
It suggests that there is not much between them, but Champagne Fever has never won a chase as short as this, and Mallowney is equally in-and-out with Twinlight, who is 2-1 up on him, and Felix Yonger was giving him weight when they were one-two in the Hilly Way in December.
The Willie Mullins trio has collectively beaten Hidden Cyclone (now tries blinkers) and Mallowney five times and Felix Yonger, who clearly loves a stiff 2m, is currently the most reliable and I took 7.6 this morning.
I was loathe to take sides in the race but have to accept the events selected by Pricewise if I am to stay ahead of his game. And, looking at the tricky nature of every race, I ended up napping Felix!
6.05 Punchestown (Bumper) English raider Bon Enfant has the advantage of a winning round at Wincanton and an easier surface today, while home hope Art Of Synergy should come on a ton for his third in a big field at Navan.
After his Point win, the expensive Gordon Elliott Petit Mouchoir is hooded first time.
But there are well-bred and interesting debutants. Last Goodbye, Rooster Byron, Twinkletoes and Set In My Ways though, of course St Stephens Green for illie Mullins represents the most successful bumper stable.
With stamina laden pedigress, Roos er Byron, Set In My Ways and Twinkletoes are horses for the future but the more speedy Last Goodbye, with the advantage of a top claim, is one for the day at 16.5 on BETDAQ.
6.40 Punchestown (Champion Novice Chase) If the potentially changeable weather doesn’t put you off backing the odds-on shots, then the stats for this race might curb your enthusiasm: only one favourite has won this in nine years.
The RSA winner Don Poli seems to have an unassailable chance. He’s already beat en the only other 3m winner in the race, Wounded Warrior – on good ground at Cheltenham – and he’s beaten Apache Stronghold on soft-heavy.
Apache Stronghold swerved him at Cheltenham but he and Valseur Lido were swamped by Don Poli’s stablemate, Vautour, over shorter.
At the narrow difference between them in December, and with better ground still a possibillity over the last of my waffles, Apache Stronghold is value at 7.2 to turn the tables on the odds-on Don Poli in a race where such form somersaults seem to happen.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each staked to win 20 points, except multiples)
BET 1.2pts win and 6.8pts place ENNISKILLEN (3.40 Punchestown)
BET 1.3pts win and place on each RUPERT LAMB and SOME ARTICLE, and 0.8pts win and place WAXIES DARGLE (4.55 Punchestown)
BET 3pts win (nap) FELIX YOUNGER (5.30 Punchestown)
BET 1.3pts win and place LAST GOODBYE (6.05 Punchestown)
BET 3.2pts win APACHE STRONGHOLD (6.40 Punchestown)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 3pts win trebles Enniskillen and Wish Ye Didn’t (3.40 Punchestown) with Douvan (4.20 Punchestown) and with Apache Stronghold and Don Poli (6.40 Punchestown)
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