PUNCHESTOWN MATCH OF THE DAY: MONKFISH v ENVOI ALLEN: Is this first day at Punchestown revenge via Nube Negra for the English defeat at Cheltenham or is it another ‘black cloud’ (see below) of Irish dominance? Who will win the match of the day between Monkfish and Envoi Allen? What is the best outsider of the day? Headlines:
SAILING! STOUTE’S BOAT COMING IN
GROUND BOOST FOR 20.0 CAYD BOY
ALLAHO! IT’S RACHAEL’S RACE AGAIN
MONKFISH FANS GIFTED EVEN MONEY
BETDAQ VALUE BOOSTS 20.0 BULL’S-EYE AND DAQMAN SUPERNAP: Daqman puts his 2-2 supernap score on the line at Punchestown in a race in which the BETDAQ exchange added up to a 100% level playing-field this morning. He covers a 20.0 win-50 bull’s-eye bets at Nottingham (with a Frankie Dettori saver) and at Punchestown (with a place bet). Standings:
DAQMAN 10, PRICEWISE 6
SUPERNAPS 2-2
SAILING! STOUTE’S BOAT COMING IN
⭕ 3.55 Nottingham (Nottinghamshire Oaks) Frankie Dettori’s rare rides – one today – add up to 6-17 for a 35% strike rate in the last fortnight, 6-15 (40%) when partnering runners for John and Thady Gosden, reducing even further to five out of eight (62.5%) when the Gosden mounts are favourite, which is mostly.
The filly Mostly, who should improve for the step up in trip here, is favourite in this, though Dettori has never won it, nor has Gosden, and no trainer has won it twice.
Mostly, 2-2 on AW, has never scored on turf and, on the ratings, is 8lb behind Black Lotus, who will appreciate firm ground.
But Black Lotus was beaten by a Gosden filly in similar conditions at Yarmouth when the time was moderate and, at six years old, is giving Mostly the edge on improvement.
A La Voile has Ryan Moore up for Sir Michael Stoute (currently 3-5), who won the last running of this race in 2019.
A La Voile was only sixth in that Yarmouth race in September, and Freyja’s three-year-old form was all with cut in the ground, sometimes plenty.
Back-and-lay boys should note that Freyja (Mark Johnston) has not so far shown the stable trait of front-running, and Unknown Pleasures is more likely to lead, though A La Voile (‘sailing’) can be put anywhere in a race, and is clearly more straightforward than Mostly, who has had wind ops but still wears a tongue-tie.
BETDAQ value 6.0 A La Voile
GROUND BOOST FOR 20.0 CAYD BOY
⭕ 4.15 Punchestown (Champion Novice Hurdle) Willie Mullins has won this six times in the decade at SPs ranging from 6-1 ON (Douvan in 2015 off 160) and 2-1 ON (Faugheen a year earlier off 155) to 25-1 against.
Mullins’ stablemates Blue Lord (148) and Echoes Of Rain (141) are top here in a low-quality renewal, with others in the small field as rank outsiders.
Echoes In Rain has won two at Grade 2 but Paul Townend seems to prefer Blue Lord, who impressed him over the Punchestown CD in the autumn.
4.50 Punchestown Cayd Boy weakened only on the run-in of the County Hurdle at Cheltenham, and Liz Doyle has long thought that he’d improve for better ground.
That about a horse who had never been out of the frame until Cheltenhamn, winning three times, mainly in very soft conditions.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 20.0 Cayd Boy
ALLAHO! IT’S RACHAEL’S RACE AGAIN
⭕ 5.25 Punchestown (Champion Chase) All the big pots are being previewed as Paul Townend v Rachael Blackmore, and Willie Mullins against the rest of the world.
But will a Nube Negra (translates as ‘black cloud’) descend on the Irish? Will their Cheltenham celebrations transferred with Spring in the air to Punchestown have quite the same outcome?
We’ve already seen the Champion Chase winner, Put The Kettle On, turned over by the fourth horse home that day, Greaneteen, on better ground and a different track at Sandown on Saturday.
Now here’s the second, Nube Negra, and third, Chacun Pour Soi, from that race doing battle with the 2m 4f Ryanair winner, Allaho, who was second in the novice hurdle here at the 2019 staging – the last one before today – of this Punchestown Festival. The winner that day: future Cheltenham Gold Cup star, Minella Indo
The good-to-firm surface today will ease from watering and forecast showers but, as with Put The Kettle at Sandown, those who prefer the mud (First Flow) will not find it here on the first day.
1 Allaho has never won at shorter than 2m 4f but is a devastating jumper and front-runner, and I can see Rachael Blackmore stealing the race at around 2-1. Potential flaw: tendency to jump to the left.
2 Nube Negra Holds Chacun Pour Soi on Cheltenham championship form, when stumbled and unlucky to be beaten by opportunist run from Put The Kettle On.
Potential flaw: he is a rear runner, who came through to win the Ladbrokes Desert Orchid at Kempton before his second at Cheltenham. Both races were run in slow time.
3 Chacun Pour Soi Has 2lb to find with Allaho on current ratings. Potential flaw: he is nine and giving two years of potential improvement away to Allaho.
MONKFISH FANS GIFTED EVEN MONEY
⭕ 6.30 Punchestown (Champion Novice Chase) Match of the day! Envoi Allen v. Monkfish. Envoi Allen, unbeaten in 11 starts for Gordon Elliott, didn’t have a race at Cheltenham (fell fourth over 2m 4f), after being switched to Henry De Bromhead.
Monkfish (over 3m) didn’t either – he was literally taking the race in his stride – until, clear and going easily, rated more than a stone ahead of second and third, he blundered at the last, though still able to go six lengths up at the line.
Envoi Allen beat horses in the Drinmore and here at Punchestown (Killiney) rated 145 and 147, yet is deemed a 164 and is running over the distance for the first time.
Monkfish, guaranteed the trip, has twice beaten a 155 but is rated 163, a pound behind Envoi Allen. Getting a shade better than evens, the Monkfish army owes this supernap price to Envoi Allen and Rachael Blackmore.. and a 100% BETDAQ orange!
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.55 Nottingham (win 50, saver win 10)
BULL’S-EYE BET 10pts win A LA VOILE
BET 4pts win MOSTLY
4.50 Punchestown (win 50, win 10 place)
BULL’S-EYE BET 2.5pts win and place CAYD BOY
5.25 Punchestown (win 20)
BET 10pts win ALLAHO
6.30 Punchestown (supernap)
BET 20pts win MONKFISH
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
