ANOTHER DAQMAN DAY OF PROFIT AND TWO NAPS OUT OF THREE: Two winners out of three yesterday; and two naps out of three to fill the kitty for Ascot. That’s the record Daqman takes into the first day of the big meeting today. His 18.50 profit yesterday came about through:
WON 5-6 (nap) ANTONIA DE VEGA
WON 100-30 PEGGIE SUE
NAPS RECORD
WON 7 4 FRANCONIA (Saturday)
WON 5-6 (nap) ANTONIA DE VEGA (Monday)
ASCOT DAY 1: DAQMAN IS LEADING PRICEWISE BY 270 POINTS: Daqman and Pricewise are head to head at Ascot, with Daqman 8-1 up since the resumption of racing and 270 points clear after three winners out of four on Saturday at 5-1, 9-2 and 7-4. The first-day headlines are:
🔹 HOT HOLLIE! SHIEL SURELY GO CLOSE
🔹 ROLL UP FOR THE BALLYDOYLE CIRCUS
🔹 FRANKLY IT’S FRANKIE’S ASCOT AGAIN
🔹 PAPA’S PAPA WAS LAUNCHED IN THIS
🔹 SLIPPERS TO GIVE BATTAASH A BOOT
🔹 JOHNSTON HARVEST MOON IS RISING
HOT HOLLIE! SHIEL SURELY GO CLOSE
GOING: Good to soft. LEADING ASCOT TRAINERS (5 years): John Gosden 40, Aidan O’Brien 29, Charlie Appleby 23, Sir Michael Stoute 20, Mark Johnston 20.
JOCKEYS (5 years): Ryan Moore 40, Frankie Dettori 34, William Buick 31, James Doyle 22, Adam Kirby 20.
👑 1.15 Ascot (Buckingham Palace Handicap)
FORM: Jack’s Point (1-14), War Glory (1-16) and Keyser Soze (1-16) have poor turf form and Daarik has won all his races on AW.
Jim Crowley swerves Daarik for Motakhayyel (down in trip; likes top of the ground) yet Daarik leads the market because the reserve pilot is Frankie Dettori!
Ebury with six, Daarik and Motakhayyel with five runs each are unexposed. Compare with Firmament (61 races) and War Glory who has run 45 times.
Ascot winning form: Blown By Wind (1-2), Lethal Lunch (1-2), Cliffs Of Capri (2-4), Ebury (1-1), Gifted Master (1-5).
Cliffs Of Capri is 3lb better off for a half-length defeat by Jack’s Point at Newmarket 12 days ago but was always being held that day.
Kaeso idles in front and has been placed here, second in the International, third in the Victoria Cup, but that’s put him high in the handicap. He will need a champion ride from Oisin Murphy.
Greenside was second in a big field here in October but is nine now and high in the weights, too.
Mutamaasik – a proper horse, says his trainer – is also up in the ratings after four wins in a row and doesn’t like cut in the ground.
VERDICT: I fancy mile winner here Ebury (had a run back) for Martyn Meade, a 23.0 BETDAQ offer, and Glen Shiel, who was fourth in the Balmoral Handicap on the course off today’s mark in October.
Had a good run back two weeks ago and comes here with Archie Watson (12-37) and Hollie Doyle (14-73) absolutely flying. He’s 21.0
ROLL UP FOR THE BALLYDOYLE CIRCUS
👑 1.50 Ascot (Queen Anne Stakes)
STATS: Four and five year olds (9 out of 10) usually take this from a single figure stall (8 out of 9). Team Hannon won it with their top milers Canford Cliffs (off 127) and Toronado (125).
FORM: The Hannons’ 1,000 Guineas winner, Billesdon Brook, is back to form off 116, and only Mustashry (121) and Circus Maximus (118) – side by side in stalls 4 and 5 – are rated higher.
Mustashry is seven now but Sir Michael Stoute has improved him in recent runs and landed the Lockinge with him last year.
Terebellum, the plunge horse at the weekend out of stall 8, is a freegoing filly who won the Dahlia, drops back to a mile and takes on the colts for the first time. That’s two asks too many.
Duke Of Hazzard stepped up from Listed to Group 3 and completed his hat-trick in the Celebration Mile (Group 2)
VERDICT: I can’t resist the 4.4 on BETDAQ about Circus Maximus, St James’s Palace winner a year ago for Ballydoyle, and Prix Du Moulin star in September with cut in the ground at Longchamp.
Fox Chairman (BETDAQ 8.7) was behind him at Chester but is lightly raced and from a stable in top gear. Has Group 1 pretensions this year.
Don’t be put off by Aidan O’Brien’s usual posturing about Circus Maximus: ‘He’s just ready to start back.’ So was Santa Claus on Christmas Eve.
FRANKLY IT’S FRANKIE’S ASCOT AGAIN
👑 2.25 Ascot (Ribblesdale Stakes)
STATS: John Gosden 2-3; Aidan O’Brien 3-6. Low numbers (1 to 6) are 10-10 and that could swing the Lingfield Oaks Trial result another way.
FORM: Runner-up at Lingfield, Golden Lips (from stall 4 today), has little more than a length to make up on Miss Yoda, who is now drawn wide in 11. West End Girl, a nose back in third, is in the one stall today.
All three have their problems and, all of a heap, I shall not be choosing from them: Anastarsia, behind that day when her saddle slipped, could improve but so, too, could Trefoil and Hold Fast, both unexposed.
But the improver par excellence must surely be Frankie Dettori’s Frankel-filly ride, Frankly Darling, who got 10-1 quotes (but 13.0 with BETDAQ this morning) for the Epsom Oaks after oozing class in her maiden win at Newcastle on the day of racing’s resumption.
VERDICT: I already have 20 points Frankly Darling as a Fortune Cookie for today’s Ribblesdale and I shall take the massive 13.0 for the Oaks while I can. Born With Pride waits for more rain and the Queen’s Vase on Friday.
PAPA’S PAPA WAS LAUNCHED IN THIS
👑 3.00 Ascot (King Edward VII Stakes)
STATS: Aidan O’Brien won this ‘Ascot Derby’ in 2004 but didn’t follow up until Japan last year.
FORM: Japan’s brother, Mogul, was champion juvenile at Leopardstown and fourth to Guineas winner Kameko in the Futurity at Newcastle.
More rain may have helped his stablemate Arthur’s Kingdom, second in the Saint-Cloud Criterium on heavy.
The Kameko stable runs Papa Power, who is by Nathaniel, a dramatic improver at this stage of his career, winning this King Edward and then the King George, both with cut in the ground.
VERDICT: Papa Power is huge at BETDAQ 12.0. I rate him half that price; snag is the potentially tactical nature of the race, which pushes him out to 7.0.
That would need five points to win 30. I’ll keep the five-points stake at 12.0, giving me two kinds of value, so a Double Value Bet.
SLIPPERS TO GIVE BATTAASH A BOOT
👑 3.35 Ascot (King’s Stand Stakes)
STATS: Only Tis Marvellous and Shades Of Blue have won at Ascot. Only Tis Marvellous, Shades Of Blue, Well Done Fox and Hit The Bid have never won with cut in the ground. Only Battaash and Glass Slippers are within the recent winning-ratings range.
FORM: Battaash (10lb clear in the ratings) has twice finished second in this race, and speed tracks at Deauville, Goodwood and Sandown have suited him better.
Abbaye winner Glass Slippers has improved 24lb in a fine year, twice beating Shades of Blue. She has won at 6f, loves some cut and will be running through late when the minimum-distance sprinters are crying enough.
Liberty Beach is another who has won at 6f and, like Glass Slippers, shows she can burst through late over a fast 5f (Goodwood last July).
VERDICT: Battaash at age six is taking on improvers and has twice failed to last out in this race. Double whammy: lay Battaash, back Glass Slippers, more big value at 7.1 on BETDAQ
JOHNSTON HARVEST MOON IS RISING
👑 4.40 Ascot Stakes
STATS: Ages 5, 6, 7 (8-10); ratings 92-95 (6-9). Willie Mullins 4-8; Ryan Moore 3-8. Hurdlers are 10-10.
FORM: Nicky Henderson has won this before but Verdana Blue, and he won’t care that the seven times hurdles winner has had only one race on Flat (turf); after all, he was fourth in the Sagaro Stakes.
Land Of Oz won last year’s Cesarewitch Trial on firm ground but runner-up Smart Champion and the third, Blue Laureate are better off at the weights. ‘Oz’ tailed off in the big race itself, run on the soft.
Moon King was a class-5, 70-rated handicapper a year ago but has stepped up a stone and a half in only five races since, winning when he’s encountered softish ground.
Diocletian’s best form is at around 1m 6f but he’s improved 16lb in his last four starts since last June and tries a marathon trip again.
Mark Johnston’s late-developer Summer Moon, gelded since third in the Cesarewitch (soft), is mature enough now to become a leading marathon runner this season.
Coeur De Lion, fifth in this race last year, is a couple of pounds better off and visored first time. Mancini was seventh when favourite for the race but has been beaten by both Diocletian and Moon King since..
VERDICT: Ashutor, Carntop, Verdana Blue, Blue Laureate, Coeur De Lion, Quloob, San Benedeto, Fair Mountain and Yaa Salaam try to uphold a 100% record for hurdlers in this race.
Despite that stats attack, Summer Moon at BETDAQ 12.0 is my choice, knowing how raw and backward he was and how he has shot forward recently. Blue Laureate to give Cieren Fallon a big handicap would be a headline alternative: 15.0.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.15 Ascot (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 2.5pts win GLEN SHIEL
BULL’S-EYE BET: 2.25pts win EBURY
1.50 Ascot (win 30)
BET 8.5pts win CIRCUS MAXIMUS
BET 3.75pts win FOX CHAIRMAN
2.25 Ascot
FORTUNE COOKIE (nap)
BET 20pts win FRANKLY DARLING
3.00 Ascot (to win 55 points)
DOUBLE VALUE BET: 5pts win PAPA POWER
3.35 Ascot (Double Whammy: win 5pts, win 30)
LAY 5pts BATTAASH
BET 5pts win GLASS SLIPPERS
4.10 Ascot (win 20, win 10)
BET 2.25pts win WASMYA
BET 3.5pts win JUBILOSO
4.40 Ascot (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 5pts win SUMMER MOON
BULL’S-EYE BET 3.5pts win BLUE LAUREATE
ANTE-POST (Epsom Oaks)
BULL’S-EYE BET 4.25pts win FRANKLY DARLING
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