THREE DAQMAN NAPS IN A ROW LAND HEAVY GAMBLES: Daqman yesterday completed a hat-trick of naps, or more precisely a hat-trick of heavy gambles, so that the BETDAQ morning gift of offers for a bet that paid for the day had to be taken well before the ‘off.’ Another example of how far ahead of the SP are BETDAQ prices and offers, whether at long odds or short.
WON 2-9 CARAMELISED Monday nap
WON 2-7 SKAZINO Sunday supernap
WON 2-5 REACH FOR THE MOON Saturday supernap
TODAY: Daqman checks out the trainers’ title race after the announcement that prizemoney levels will return to normal in October. He searches Bangor, Newbury and Salisbury for an odds-against nap in a bid for four in a row.
CHAMPIONS DAY WILL SEAL TITLE
It’s tougher at the top. The top 20 leading Flat stables in England in 2014 earned just under £40m. This season, with 10-and-a-bit weeks to go, they are on £31m, struggling to match that total of seven years ago.
The most consistent trainers in the interim have been John Gosden and Aidan O’Brien, amassing the millions year on year.
But the 2021 table has rivals at the top who were only ninth and 13th in 2014: Andrew Balding and Charlie Appleby, only a few thousand apart and with all to play for in the British Champions month of October.
Former title-holders Richard Hannon and Mark Johnston are each a million behind and Aidan O’Brien is having a poor season in England by his standards, with a 9% strike rate.
Punters pals with 28%, 24% and 23% strike rates respectively are Charlie Appleby, William Haggas and Roger Varian, though Balding’s 70 points profit is miles clear of any other stable for level-stakes returns.
Chief danger to Appleby and Balding for the trainers’ title remains John Gosden, who accrued £8m in 2019 and £3m last year. What’s left of the 2021 gold strike?
Charlie Appleby How will he play his two Derby winners, Adayar (Epsom) and Hurricane Lane (Curragh)?
An Adayar or Hurricane Lane St Leger (£396k) and British Champions Middle Distance (£680k) would make Appleby king of 2021 in England, but which one will be diverted to the Arc?
John Gosden The £680k Champion Stakes for Mishriff would take Gosden into the firing line and a Palace Pier Champions Mile (£623k) could clinch it. Stradivarius is still capable of earning a few shekels.
Aidan O’Brien Victory for Snowfall and St Mark’s Basilica at the British Champions meeting in October would take £1.2m in prizemoney away from the home team, while Appleby and Gosden take their top colts to France for the Arc.
I cannot see the Andrew Balding lead lasting until the end of the season, with his flagship filly Alcohol Free finishing legless, eight lengths down to Mishriff, in the International.
STAY IN THE BLACK WITH ANTHEM
⭕ 2.40 Bangor The likely favourite today, Wigglesworth, has to prove that blinkers will work a second time after he won here on the soft in a conditional-jockeys’ hurdle.
He didn’t jump fluently and it was a Pyrrhic victory that day: he’s been thumped 7lb (upped to 114) for beating placed horses rated 79 and 88. That’s hard.
Presenting Yeats won from only two finishers on hard ground (3m 2f) at Newton Abbot. So he gets 26lb from Wigglesworth and 24lb from Black Anthem, after beating only two horses over hurdles.
Black Anthem has beaten 40, with six NH strikes on the board. The race fits his profile; he’s won the last twice after being placed first, and looks too big at morning offers.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE value 8.0 Black Anthem
POWER CAN HOLD HIS FORM WELL
⭕ 5.45 Newbury Troll Peninsula has been heavily backed for two wins wide apart and has seemingly needed another holiday before this, only the fourth race of his life.
Chance is similarly situated after a second long break but has had more racing and more success, so has to give weight to all the other younger horses.
Turn On The Charm has never been out of the first four since he was gelded nine runs back but is lacking success at this level.
Once he wins a race, Power Of Darkness holds his form well – he’s done it twice before – and is generally a more solid performer, despite his price.
BETDAQ value 12.5 Power Of Darkness
SAINT’S ALIVE TO SPRINT CHANCE
⭕ 6.05 Salisbury Another situation where the favourite, Albasheer, has had a longer holiday than the foreign secretary. Albasheer makes his seasonal debut after 318 days off and, if he’s at his best, has at least 7lb in hand, according to the handicapper.
But his breeding is for 1m 2f to 1m 4f and, after starting at 7f as a 2yo, it’s clear that middle-distance racing is what connections expected for his second season, not a 6f sprint on top of the ground.
Group-3-placed Saint Lawrence is much more the sprinter, running well in good company if you ignore his rejection of heavy ground at Haydock the last day.
He kept on when runner-up at Ascot after leading a furlong out in the first of three straight wins by Rohaan which had him heading for Group-1 contention.
BETDAQ value 3.75 Saint Lawrence
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.40 Bangor (win 12)
BET 1.75pts win BLACK ANTHEM
5.45 Newbury (win 12)
BET 1pt win POWER OF DARKNESS
6.05 Salisbury (win 12, nap)
BET 4.25pts win SAINT LAWRENCE
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
