IRISH TRIAL’S CRUCIAL ROLE JUST DAYS BEFORE AINTREE WEIGHTS: Grand National fever starts a week today with the official publication of the weights. The Punchestown Grand National Trial on Sunday, which comes on the brink of the handicapper’s verdict for Aintree, is followed by the Haydock Trial on Saturday week. Daqman argues that it’s the Punchestown trial that could be the crucial test, when five of the seven top weights are trained by Willie Mullins and all entered for Liverpool.
SEDGEFIELD NAP: DAQMAN relies on Brian Hughes for the NAP. Fresh from a treble at Carlisle on Monday can Hughes grab another win in the 2.25pm? He also has bets at Market Rasen and Kempton.
SUNDAY KEY TO MULLINS’ NATIONAL BID
All eyes on Aintree. And Sunday’s Punchestown Grand National Trial assumes greater importance this year as D-for-decision Day for Willie Mullins’ Liverpool entries.
Arch-rival Gordon Elliott’s Tiger Roll has ruled Aintree for two years now, and the stable is also on a hat-trick in the Punchestown test.
Enter Mullins, currently relying on Burrows Saint for Aintree, with FIVE of the top seven in the weights at Punchestown, so the race looks huge for his Aintree chances.
I’ve checked out (below) where the Punchestown Five (in capitals) stand in the Liverpool handicap, according to the official ratings – at left – with the BETDAQ Sportsbook prices at right.
But be warned that the next crucial day after Sunday is a week today, Tuesday, when the weights will be unveiled at a ceremony in Liverpool.
You can be sure that before, during, and after the event, controversy will rage as to what the Irish runners should be given, particularly Tiger Roll.
Do you give him a chance of the hat-trick or do you make him pay for his two victories?
Will some or all of the Punchestown five warrant more or less weight after Sunday and will they be able to play at Aintree; will a real threat to Tiger Roll emerge?
172 Tiger Roll (Gordon Elliott) won last two Aintree Nationals: BETDAQ Sportsbook 6.0
168 Native River (Colin Tizzard) won Welsh National and Cheltenham Gold Cup: BETDAQ 17
162 Elegant Escape (Colin Tizzard) won Welsh National; 3rd Ladbrokes Trophy: BETDAQ 26
158 Magic Of Light (Jessica Harrington) second Aintree National: BETDAQ 17
158 TOTAL RECALL (Willie Mullins) >> Punchestown Grand National Trial: BETDAQ 26.0
156 Burrows Saint (Willie Mullins) won the Irish Grand National: BETDAQ 17
156 Definitly Red (Brian Ellison) 6th Gold Cup; 4th Becher Chase: BETDAQ 26
152 ACAPELLA BORGEOIS (Willie Mullins) >>Punchestown Grand National Trial BETDAQ 41
152 Potters Corner (Christian Williams) Midlands National, Coral Welsh National: BETDAQ 26
150 Kimberlite Candy (Tom Lacey) 2nd Becher Chase; won Warwick Classic: BETDAQ 21
150 CHEF DES OBEAUX (Willie Mullins) >> Punchestown Grand National Trial: BETDAQ 41.0
150 Walk In The Mill (Robert Walford) fourth Aintree National; won Becher Chase. BETDAQ 17
149 DOUNIKOS (Gordon Elliott) >> Punchestown Grand National Trial: BETDAQ 50
148 PLEASANT COMPANY (Willie Mullins) >> Punchestown Grand National Trial: BETDAQ 34
147 CLASS CONTI (Willie Mullins) >> Punchestown Grand National Trial: BETDAQ 66
146 BORICE (Gordon Elliott) >> Punchestown Grand National Trial: BETDAQ 50
145 Le Breuil (Ben Pauling) won NH Challenge Cup; 7th Becher Chase: BETDAQ 2
IT’S HAT-TRICK HUGHES AGAIN
2.25 Sedgefield Evander is on a recovery mission after unseating at the first at Catterick last time out when favourite but can surely be forgiven that blip and is better judged on his win here the previous start over the slightly shorter 2m 4f trip.
A positive would be Brian Hughes taking over in the saddle – he is really trying to take advantage of Richard Johnson’s unfortunate injury and is opening up a sizeable lead – boosted by three out of three at Carlisle yesterday including a 10/1 shot and unfortunately for me on Lily’s Gem who pipped the NAP by a neck.
Evander goes well in the mud and has most to fear here from Kerrkenny Gold from the in form (and we can now say Grade 1 winning stable) of Olly Murphy.
Kerrkenny Gold faces an easier task than at Taunton when fourth last time out, although it is slightly worrying that the trainer has reported that the gelding has suffered from a breathing problem.
3.15 Market Rasen The best race on the card here despite it now being down to four runners with the defection of Dan Skelton’s No Getaway.
It’s still a puzzle and McFabulous looks a little short, even allowing for the current form of Paul Nicholls (14 wins from his last 40 runners).
I don’t really want to play at short odds about McFabulous improving for the step-up in trip which he will need to. So far he hasn’t converted his smart bumper form to hurdles and finished last of four when last seen out at Ascot where he was well beaten two from home and the trainers representative could offer no explanation for the poor run.
He comes up against an in form horse here in the shape of Hijack trained by Nicky Henderson. He looks very progressive and whilst we still have the dilemma of the extra trip – I’m playing at better odds to find out and I’m a lot more confident given that won going away at Ludlow last time out.
He still looked very green that day and should improve further.
If there are flaws in the front two then Hometown Boy will be ready to pick up the pieces. He is proven over a longer trip and was an easy winner at Market Rasen on Boxing Day on his handicap debut. He sets a fair standard but Hijack is already rated six pounds superior and has the far greater potential.
6.30 Kempton Class 3 the best on offer tonight and hard to split the five runners.
Stuart Williams is in superb form (6 wins from his last 12) and with Pinnata falling further in the weights it would be no surprise to see the six-year-old bouncedback to form and dominate things from the front under P J McDonald.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points)
BET 5.7pts win (nap) EVANDER (2.25 Sedgefield)
BET 5.0pts win HIJACK (3.15 Market Rasen)
BET 4.0pts win PINNATA (6.30 Kempton)
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