ANOTHER BANKER WINS AT 5-4: Daqman tilted against David O’Meara’s yard yesterday. O’Meara was quickly 2-0 up, and had Daqman claiming that one of his tips Cadeau Magnifique, ‘ran as if its legs were tied together’. But the banker came up: Imtiyaaz (WON 5-4) beat O’Meara’s best into last place.
SEVEN NAPS UP IN EIGHT DAYS: Imtiyaaz was Daqman’s seventh winning nap in eight days’ racing, as follows:
WON 5-4 Bachasson (Mon)
WON 1-2 Long Dog (banker, Tues)
WON 5-4 Time To Inspire (Wed)
WON 2-5 Solow (banker, Wed)
WON 11-8 Shalaa (banker, Thurs)
WON 9-4 Dartmouth (Sat)
WON 5-4 Imtiyaaz (banker, Mon)
HAYLEY SMOOTH ON IFTIKAAR: Switching to the evening meeting, Daqman scored again when he put his faith in BETDAQ columnist Hayley Turner on Iftikaar (WON 5-4). She won easily in a smooth performance on ladies’ night at Carlisle.
HORSE SENSE IN THE BETDAQ MARKET
Put your ego in its kennel. Forty years ago this week, a book changed my young life. I was Jack the Lad, trying to beat the bookies and beat the other punters in the shop, cheering and jeering when I won, quiet as an unlicensed telly when I lost.
Beating the bookies is a fallacy; beating the lads is an ego trip for losers. But, in fact, they go together very well, as the book – Horse Sense – revealed to me.
You’ve seen them in the betting shop: leaping up and down, shouting on the winner; then turning to their trapped audience with that ‘I told you so’ sneer. ‘Cert, that was; what did I tell ya!’ Probably didn’t even back it.
They are only there to air their ego in public. They will never win real money. They certainly can’t do it picking horses in their blind state of frustration.
As Daqman, I can pick 19 winners but, if the 20th bet loses, these same ‘lads’ jeer: ‘Call yourself a tipster..’ But I know that it’s not about me; it’s about their problem. The same false outlet for their ego.
So how do you combine the fallacies? The answer is that you can only beat the bookies by beating the lads. Quietly, calmly; calculating. Stop by the shop, if you see one of them: give him a lift in your new Beamer.
You see, when the ‘mug money’ on the hyped horses goes down, the market is so altered as to give you an edge on the real form.
You see it every week, the horse in the headlines, the words from the ‘wise’. And the same brave egoes will follow the hype like lemmings to the white cliffs of Dover.
It will be publicly announced on Channel-4 what the wise have tipped (just in case you can’t read the paper!). Down goes the price again.
That’s the real cue to the lads. They should now be piling in against the beast. It’s a false price. And only value prices can win you money.
Even if they could, most of them won’t. Even though a miracle has happened in the market place in those 40 years since Horse Sense. Exchange betting.
The quiet, the calm and the calculating can now lay the wise bet that’s become a loser for the lemmings. And the money you take is their money. Not the bookies.
On BETDAQ, it’s a straight head to head. You pit your wits, betting and laying, looking for the value, glad to find a false favourite or a lemming bet; in its place more value.
The beautiful game that has turned ugly, with egoes already doing battle – it was only a Charity Shield, for Pete’s sake! – starts again this month.
But the beautiful game for the punter – the modern way for the genuinely wise – is racing and it’s here on your screen every day, with a market you modify and manipulate in play, pricing up your commodity and selling it or buying the best orange on offer on the next stall. That’s what bears fruit. That’s horse sense.
KATIE GALE A VALUE NAP AT CATTERICK
I’m only here as a guide. I’m your first debate; and mine. The early position on a race. And, if you want to know what value is, take yesterday.
I opined against David O’Meara, trying to get his favourites beat, but they went 8-1 each of his two at the ‘off’ in the Armstrong Memorial. What a super dutch!
Let’s try and stay class 4 and higher today if we can. Horse Sense warned that, in races below class 3, you can’t rely on the form. He’s proved right every day, and now that the plethora of races are below class 3, the game is harder.
3.45 Catterick I find myself seeking to oppose a David O’Meara again! Can anything beat Nonchalant? The grey is stepping up in trip and the first-time hood could be the answer to him.
The unexposed horse is Heart Locket but trainer Mick Easterby is having a dreadful run (1-34 in the last two weeks).
Old boy Dhaular Dhar has done his winning recently and is now higher in the handicap than he’s been for three years.
Calculated Risk’s form at the start of a campaign is 000, and he’s probably warming up for a summer chase somewhere.
Bell Weir hasn’t won for more than two years; Be Perfect and Deep Resolve – neither has much resolve – are front-runners.
So the alternative is Katie Gale (4.7 on BETDAQ), a pretty good one, too; four times a winner, including over further, so will enjoy there being pace to the race. And she’s been able to put back-to-back wins together before.
4.30 Salisbury According to one of the stats engineers – Nick Mordin, I shouldn’t wonder – when Michael Stoute’s handicap winners remain at a low level, avoid them.
And Entity isn’t even favourite on BETDAQ this morning. That dubious honour goes to Frenzified, son of the mighty Yeats, so perhaps one no horseman should pass by. Won when stepped up to this trip.
Ditto Graceland; but she couldn’t handle a grade higher and is back to class 4 here. Soul Searcher was easy to back this morning, having gone up a stone in the ratings. And Syrdarya is with the right trainer for a filly to improve.
But I’m stuck at the same table here. With scrambled egg all over my face. Believe it or not, my first position on the 1,000 Guineas was Victoria Pollard (come on lads; have a good jeer!)
I take heart from the fact that, despite a setback, she continued to be aimed at the Pattern, chasing after black type in a Listed, after finishing down the field in the Cheshire Oaks. At 8.6, it’s last chance saloon, Vicky girl!
7.05 Ripon Azagal has been well beaten by Ajaadat; Richard Fahey (Belle Travers), Michael Appleby (Secret Ligntning) and Patrick Holmes (Lil Sophelia) are out of form, and I can’t spell Alexandrakollontal.
Marsh Pride has won only her maiden – always a bad sign – and so this looks like the age-old question of can the Mark Johnston outrun the favourite?
Roger Varian is going for win number five in six starts: Ajaadat doesn’t find much at the business end but she has raced in a better grade than Johnston’s Atlantic Affair.
Both are swerving the soft ground at Haydock later in the week. Tricky, isn’t it. Betting at this level is often decided by choosing the wrong one of two. But Ajaadat’s my starter. I can always have another bet later on, even as the main course!
7.35 Ripon David O’Meara again! Is he following me? His Rural Celebration has got its gound.
Seve is the likely improver and Lexington Place hasn’t paid too dearly for his consistency. I can’t have once-a-year winner like Blithe Spirit.
I’ll try Pearl Acclaim at a tasty 11.0 on BETDAQ, hampered at Musselburgh when dropped to todays’ grade, after returning to form and scoring there in June.
DAQMAN BETS (staked 1 to 9)
BET 6pts win (nap) KATIE GALE (3.45 Catterick)
BET 3pts win on each FRENZIFIED and VICTORIA POLLARD (4.30 Salisbury)
BET 6pts win AJAADAT (7.05 Ripon)
BET 3pts win PEARL ACCLAIM (7.35 Ripon)
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