TODAY: SPRING BETTING PLAN: Today Daqman Spring cleans his betting, based on the April-May results of the last two seasons (see Daqman Library):
28 BEST BETS IN 44 DAYS (2014): Includes 15 naps out of 18 and eight bankers in a row. Four naps in a row twice; best sequence 10 out of 12.
40-1 WINNER: THREE 12-1 (2013): Daqman lands a 40-1 shot, a 16-1 winner and 12-1 (three times), plus five bankers in a row and six naps running. Profits: 268 points in two days; 165 in one day.
NEWMARKET TOMORROW: Now we’re all set to go as the English Classic trials begin at Newmarket on the Rowley Mile course tomorrow. So far the Irish trials have dumped the Derby favourite and found a hot new three-year-old.
RATINGS FOR THE CLASSICS: As the trials happen, Daqman will try to spot some ante-post flaws, and each week will rate his best trialists to date running up to the Guineas and Derbys.
DAQMAN PLAN: FLAT RACING SPRINGS TO LIFE
You have to Spring-clean your betting. Try to confine to the dustbin old ideas that didn’t work. Make sure you adapt to the time of year; polish up on what’s made it pay for you in the early Flat seasons of the past.
I’ve tried to make up a few golden rules, and glean from past success; bring a structure to this column’s betting and do a SWOT, as every business must. You have to bet with some business management (even if done in fun, you can lose your money unless you have a strategy).
SWOT Strengths. Weaknesses. Opportunities. Threats. Keep a record of your bets and, over time, you will be able to spot which tracks you do well on, which trainers seem to win for you and, conversely, where you simply can’t win, who you really are unable to fathom.
VALUE As for Opportunities? That’s easy. If you stick to offers available in the BETDAQ orange, you can’t go wrong, in the sense that you know for certain you are in a value area, whatever you back.
Almost invariably, big races are offered with a total percentage of 100 to 110% (the total is given at the top of the orange back lists). Very close to a level-playing-field on many occasions; rounding to 100 bet, 100 paid out.
Compare that with the 151% (in 2014) and 161% (on Saturday), bookmaker’s overrounds in the Total SP for the Grand National. Half your money’s gone before the race is run!
I shall state clearly in my copy when I think a particular horse is VALUE (a better offer than its price should be: see Pricing Up, below).
FORM: It’s not always easy for you to make the time to study form. Betdaq Tips will cut out some of the hard work, and I recommend that you concentrate on finding false favourites.
Imagine this: you have a 100% orange and you can find several reasons why the 2-1 favourite is a bad jolly, a false or hyped market leader.
That takes out 33% so your level playing field is suddenly 100-67 in your favour. You could actually bet the rest of the runners and make a profit (if, of course, you were right about that favourite).
PLAY AND LAY: But the point is you can START the day, by taking a position, based on your assumptions about the favourite and the percentages in your favour.
Now you can lay that favourite, play something against him, build up your own ‘book’ of bets that gives you an overall profit, creating trade possibilities throughout the day. Remember that, on BETDAQ, no race is over until the FINISH.
So practise these positioning skills; how to get an early break, a trade, a value book. So many things are possible on the exchange as I began to tell you a couple of weeks back. And I’ve promised more before the Derby.
DON’T DO IT: The Derby is an emotive word. For most punters the search for the winner began last year among the two-year-olds. But don’t be tempted (even if you read it in the newspapers) to a stab in the dark on any of the Classics before you see what’s running in the trials.
Remember the golden rule for three-year-olds: last year was last year; this year is this year.
ANTE-POST: Punters who took a short price John F Kennedy over the winter will be quaking in their betting boots. He might not even run; he might yet be the horse they thought he was. They didn’t know then; they don’t know now.
My view of ante-post bets on the Classics is the same as for any race. Take a position but one which has the percentages in your favour from the start, not a short price among hundreds of Derby entries.
There are trials at Newmarket, Newbury, Chester and York, and more in Ireland. At least you know the runners taking part are fancied for their Classic targets, or they wouldn’t be in the trials.
Find something shortish in the trial (I said ‘trial’ not a walking race, where the favourite has frightened off the opposition). Now, if you back it ante-post before the race, and cover your stake in the trial itself, you might be lucky and be on a winner.
On BETDAQ, you know you will have value in both the ante-post book and in the trial. Double whammy!
BANKER: Results in previous years, suggest we can keep the banker and the naps going strong. We have Daily (10 or 20 points stakes), Gold (30) and Diamond (40 or 50) bankers.
BULL’S-EYE AND TON-UP: And results in past Springs – and in the Daqman Library concerning recent betting – suggest that we can keep on pitching big at the handicaps, taking regular shies at the big offers.
A bull’s-eye bet is a horse staked to win 50 points at Betdaq offers; a ton-up is staked to win 100. Points are whatever you want them to be: pounds or pennies, according to your level of betting.
STAKES SAVERS: This is a bet intended as insurance, covering the stake on the main bet. It will often be a favourite I don’t like, or one too short, but one which still worries me. Or it might be a stable second-string.
PRICING UP: I try to make my own ‘book’, pricing each horse according to its form, the conditions and circumstances on the day, so that I can compare what I want with what I can get. It’s like any value-seeker’s shopping list, really.
SETTLING: Since the bets are charged to the account, early mouse, at BETDAQ morning prices, it stands to reason they should be returned as such (except bankers, where the stake is not related to the price; it’s max stakes whatever).
I have no control on whether my tips will shorten (I hope they will so you are in a trade situation). If they drift, then obviously I can’t claim the bigger price for the return on any winners.
PRICEWISE CHALLENGE: That’s where I bet in the same races as the Racing Post man. Win, and place if the BETDAQ orange offer is bigger than 12.0 or so, each return a single point scored.
If Pricewise wins and I break even (with a saver), the saver does not count, and he wins. If he fails to win or place, and I break even, he loses a point to me because my bets lost nothing and you could have made money on my saver.
Current score (Flat season to date): Daqman 11, Pricewise 3. Overall score (since November, 2013): Daqman 152, Pricewise 76.
CLASSICAL ART TO GO ALONE TODAY
EXETER I have two selections for Exeter’s Jumps meeting today. The Nap runs in the opener which certainly looks to be nothing more than a two horse race.
Workbench has been quite effective over fences this season for the Skelton team and ran in some really good races over the course of the season including being fifth behind John’s Spirit in a good handicap chase at the start of the season. His form over Hurdles though, comes nowhere near matching that of his form over fences and he will need to show some marked improvement to trouble the jolly.
She’s Da One runs for Paul Nicholls with Sam Twiston-Davies in the plate and is on course for a Hat-Trick. This looks to be a weak race in which she could easily record a third Hurdles win. Although she hasn’t been fluent throughout her last two runs, she holds a lot in a hand and She’s Da One is the Nap today.
At 3.35, Classical Art, who dead heated with one of my selections two weeks back, Princess Ombu, attemtps to go again and this looks like being a good race to do it.
Rated 111, he holds sway over the Nicky Henderson trained Vodka ‘N Tonic who is rated 107 but may need a few pounds of a turnaround to overturn the Pipe horse.
CARLISLE The second race on the card looks to be a competitive handicap Hurdle and there are several in with good chances.
Beyondtemptation appears to be the value bet in the race for Johnathan Haynes and Diarmuid O’Regan. Although she’s up in the handicap and up slightly in class, she has been to cope with previous rises and I’m hoping that she can improve a little more to go close here. She’s defintitely worth an Each way bet.
At 4.20, Karl Thornton seems to have found a nice race for Bearly Legal to follow up on his last win at Leicester. I think he can make it win number five here today. He’s up in the handicap running off 120 here but trip and ground are suitable so he should be able to add to his tally of wins.
SOUTHWELL On the All Weather there is a decent race over 7 furlongs at 4.30. Reposer was no match for Meshardal at Catterick last week over 6 and the step up to 7 should be more in his favour.
Bognor is the pick however. There were excuses for him last time out at Chelmsford and he is a course and distance winner previously when he won here in December. Today, he runs off just a pound higher than he did on that occasion and coming back down to 7 furlongs should also be in his favour.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Staked 1-9pts on strenght, 10pts for a Banker)
BET 8pts win (Nap) SHE’S DA ONE (2.00 Exeter)
BET 1pt win and place BEYONDTEMPTATION (2.40 Carlisle)
BET 5pts win CLASSICAL ART (3.35 Exeter)
BET 5pts win BEARLY LEGAL (4.20 Carlisle)
BET 4pts win BOGNOR (4.30 Southwell)
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