8-1 START TO LINCOLN WEEK: Daqman launched Lincoln week with Contre Tous (WON 8-1) at Market Rasen yesterday to show a profit on the day of 27 points. That just one winner can put you in the black is all part of the Daqman plan.
COUNTDOWN TO THE FLAT: The Daqman Plan is exactly what we want to talk about today as the first stage of his countdown to the English Flat season, which will include:
TOMORROW: The Early Birds, a dozen horses expected to do well in the first weeks of the season.
THURSDAY: See How They Won. How to plot the Classic winners as the trials approach.
FRIDAY: Lincoln Handicap ABC
THE DAQMAN PLAN TO BOOST PROFIT
You can’t win ’em all! I had my worst Cheltenham in 10 years. It happens to the best and it happens to the rest.
So it may seem strange to start my first Flat-season column by harking back to a winner at the festival, Willoughby Court, in the Neptune
Neon Wolf (148) and Willoughby Court (147) were the top two rated – officially – and yet the much hyped Neon Wolf was 2-1 favourite and Willoughby Court, from a small yard, was 14-1. In my book, they were 3-1 and 5-1 (with another one, Bacardys, at 6-1, and then 10-1 bar three).
I wanted to back Willoughby Court (10 points) at 5-1 to win 50, so he was an absolute standout value bet at 14-1, needing only 3.5 points to win the 50.
But, if I stick to my guns, confident that my pricing up is correct, I can boost my winnings twice over by betting the ORIGINAL STAKE.
So I have 10 points win Willoughby Court at 14-1 and my return is 150 not the 60 points of the bull’s-eye bet. In fact, I win THREE TIMES:
Value: I revealed how the bookies’ SPs were up to 100-138 overround, whereas most BETDAQ morning lists in the orange were less than 108%. So, whatever you back in a race in those circumstances, you are in a punter-friendly value zone.
Double value: The horse you picked was a better price than it should have been in your own personal pricing up.
Triple value: Stick to your original stake, and – in some cases, as with Willoughby Court – nigh on treble up on the proceeds.
Look out at the Lincoln meeting and onwards for these triple value bets when I go hunting for a bull’s-eye (win 50) or ton-up return (win 100).
I shall continue to grade my banker bets at 10 points win on a low-level weekday, 20 points stake at the better meetings, 30 points for gold and 40 for a diamond banker.
General bets at those low-level meetings will be staked from 1 to 9 by the strength of the bet; and the better meetings will have bets to win 20 or even 30.
I will try to spread my stakes so that I need just one winner, maybe two, to cover a day’s punting. The first aim is not to lose; the second is to win the BETDAQ value way.
IT’S ALL UPHILL AGAINST HATTONS
3.10 Southwell We should get a 50% ROI from Fattsota, a quality horse in this field with the champion jockey on board. Banker.
4.00 Hexham Gibbstown, Hattons Hill, Smugglers Stash and The Bishop have all won here at Hexham, all on soft-heavy.
But Gibbstown’s win in this seems to have been a one-off (eight defeats before and eight defeats after), albeit his last run at Towcester puts him in the picture again today.
Hattons Hill had Smugglers Stash well behind here a fortnight ago when equipped with cheekpieces for the first time and he could go on from there.
The Bishiop has already run twice this month and I don’t think he has the stamina of Hattons Hill (4.3 on BETDAQ as I write).
4.50 Wolverhampton I will be talking later in the week about the dos and don’ts of betting on the Classics and their trials.
One clue about Classic credentials is the quality of trial or prep race the horse is taking part in. This one doesn’t say much for Utopian Dream, a relative of Irish Derby winner, Treasure Beach.
5.10 Southwell Maybe you’d prefer to follow breeding here instead. Who’s My Jockey is closely related to one of the supreme hurdles champions, Hurricane Fly.
Richard Johnson, who rides my nap, is up on this son of Yeats, his third top chance of the day, in fact, if you want a key man to follow through the meeting.
But Nicky Henderson has Royal Ruby related to the very useful Barber’s Shop and is 7-16 here in bumpers.
Tom George is another bumper man (Truckers Lodge) and Evan Williams (Mountain Chimes) won this race last year. I think we’ll look back on this is as the race of the day.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) FATTSOTA (3.10 Southwell)
BET 6pts win HATTONS HILL (4.00 Hexham)
BET 5pts win ROYAL RUBY (5.10 Southwell)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pt win doubles and 1pt win treble FATTSOTA (3.10 Southwell), HATTONS HILL (4.00 Hexham) and ROYAL RUBY (5.10 Southwell)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
