MOORE TACTICS LAND BANKERS HAT-TRICK: Jamie Moore forced an error from his nearest rival as the pair jumped together round Plumpton yesterday, and his mount, Baron Alco, landed the odds by 92 lengths and 58 for Daqman’s third consecutive winning banker:
WON 4-5 Tara View
WON 8-11 Le Prezien
WON 4-7 Baron Alco
BIG FIELD BUT DEFINITELY THE NAP! You have to be a travelling man today, with no Jumps meetings in the South. It prompts Daqman to check out those stables – particularly from remotest Wales – who can do the business when they fill up the petrol tank more than once. His nap, in a big field at Southwell, is definitely value.
ADVANTAGE TO THE BLINDSIDE FLANKER
Trainers are creatures of habit. There are 20 meetings in four days – Wednesday to Saturday – and you need to be selective about your bets. Following trainers who try a sneaky touchdown is one way of getting on the right side.
Today we’ll have a look at Hereford and Welsh stables for one particular reason. It’s expensive to travel, and they are in a tricky corner of these islands for travel.
So how do their local records compare with when they get the horse-box out and do some mileage? The answer is that they wait and wait, then sneak one in on the blindside with amazing accuracy.
PETER BOWEN: Actually does very well at Ffos Las and, in particular, Chepstow (21% strike rate), but he can almost be followed blind when his horses travel. At Ayr (24%) and Carlisle (36%), he has massive level-stakes profits. He’s also hot at Fakenham (33%) and Perth (32%). He loves going to Worcester, where he’s had 90 runners in five seasons, so take note that he has a 20% strike rate there and a level stakes profit.
DAI BURCHELL: Landed a double at the recent Ffos Las meeting and has a big entry at another local track, Chepstow, later in the week.
But be warned that Chepstow has his biggest turnout but lowest strike rate and, if you want to catch his winners, look for his rare runners or first runners at tracks you wouldn’t expect: he’s 100% at Exeter and Sedgefield,
and 50% at Fakenham and Leicester. Singular forays in more ways than one.
VENETIA WILLIAMS: Venetia has started back now that the rains have come but hang fire with her lesser lights until she travels North.
She has a fantastic record when she spends the petrol money: Cartmel 33% winners, Carlisle 32%, Musselburgh 29% and Wetherby 24%.
But look out at Ascot on Friday when she has six entered. Poor strike rate but can produce one out of the hat. That’s why she makes her biggest level-stakes profit there.
With only two winners this season so far, but knocking on the door now, she could have one (or more) primed for a hit.
Venetia was delighted with her first sniff of the big time this autumn-winter when Aso was fourth in the Gold Cup Handicap at Cheltenham on Saturday.
NO GREY AREA: 4.8 VALUE FOR THE NAP
1.05 Fakenham What about Glamorgan trainer Evan Williams, then, comes the cry from the valleys? Yes, he’s 50% at Ayr with a big profit but I’ve saved him up to explain why I’m having a pound on Jonagold in this opener.
Williams, who has had three winners in four days, sends Jonagold on a solitary journey to boost his 22% strike rate at the Norfolk track. Just four winners from 18 starters there but a level-stakes profit, suggesting that the scorers are a decent price.
Jonagold, a top-of-the-ground performer, is no doubt trying to sneak one in where the rain hasn’t done too much damage, and has cheekpieces for the first time to raise his game.
Goes well for Conor Orr, and has leapfrogged the front two in the paper forecast to go favourite in the BETDAQ market, as I write. I took 4.0.
1.35 Fakenham Neil Mulholland is the star trainer who does the travelling to Fakenham today, with 50 winners up for the season for a 21% strike rate.
Dawnieriver was an amazing price (8-1 SP) when he completed a hat-trick by 49 lengths and 26 at Plumpton. Despite back-to-back wins in open chases, he was still qualified as a novice for Plumpton.
Mulholland’s Shaky Gift is also going for a hat-trick, a trio on the course after winning twice here over hurdles a year or so ago.
It’s not easy to guesstimate his chance because he was thrown in at the deep end against Thistlecrack for his return to chasing at Chepstow last month.
The handicapper has played safe and given him his hurdles mark of 120, which means he has to give weight all round today.
Black Narcissus could probably do with a downpour but Queen Spud is 3-3, hurdles (2) and fences at Fakenham, returning to form here three weeks ago with the reapplication of cheekpieces.
BETDAQ layers are doing their level best – well almost level; 102% overround – to tempt you to punt in this one. Dawnieriver and Shaky Gift are hold-up horses, and may allow Queen Spud a soft lead in a four-horse tactical affair. I took 3.5.
1.45 Southwell Despite a rise of 5lb for winning over the Southwell CD, Definitly Grey very nearly followed up over a trip too far at Fakenham on the last day.
The grey Charlie Longsdon gelding switches back to Southwell under Richard Johnson in a poor race, even for a class 4, and 4.8 in the BETDAQ orange is nap value.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 5pts win JONAGOLD (1.05 Fakenham)
BET 6pts win QUEEN SPUD (1.35 Fakenham)
BET 8pts win (nap) DEFINITLY GREY (1.45 Southwell)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles and 1pt win treble the above three.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
