ALL THE FACTS FOR CHELTENHAM EVERY DAY THIS WEEK: Heads Up! Or, as it used to be, eyes down for Cheltenham in the form book. These days you can read the form on line and follow all the stats and facts in the Daqman column this week. Finally, in festival week itself, Daqman will analyse each race and look for value in the BETDAQ markets.
THREE BETS ON TUESDAY: DAQMAN has three bets on Tuesday with his NAP running at Southwell. One winner will pay for the day on his staking plan.
FESTIVAL STATS: RACE BY RACE
⚠️ HEADS UP: Here’s Daqman’s stats-and-facts survey of every race at next week’s Cheltenham Festival, starting with Champion Hurdle day one week today, next Tuesday. Here find your guide to ratings, trainers, form, age, weight and favourites.
⭕ 1.30 Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 10 (Supreme Novices Hurdle)
SP: only one winner bigger than 10-1 in the last nine seasons. Only one (joint) favourite. Winning ages: 5 and 6. Ratings (last five years): 155, 155, 144, 150, 154.
Willie Mullins has won this six times among 12 Irish winners in the last 19 (13 had raced in bumpers); 19 of the last 21 winners won the last day; eight out of the last 10 had won a Graded contest.
⭕ 2.10 Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 10 (Arkle Challenge Trophy)
SP: Six odds-on favourites have won in the last eight seasons. Winning ages: 6 and 7. Ratings: 166, 161, 170, 162, 151.
Nicky Henderson has won three in the last eight years; Willie Mullins is four from five and goes for a hat-trick on Tuesday.
Eleven out of 13 Arkle heroes had won or been placed over at least 19 furlongs.
Eight out of 10 had between three and five chase races, always in the first two.
⭕ 2.50 Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 10 (Ultima Handicap Chase)
SP: only one successful favourite in the decade; but 5-1 to 11-1 traps seven of the last nine winners. Ages: 7 and 8 six out of nine.
Ratings: 146, 148, 155, 142, 151, with most successful weight range 11-3 to 11-8 (four out of six). Trainers: David Pipe (2) and Jonjo O’Neill (2) since 2012.
Nine winners of the last 10 had run at a previous Cheltenham festival; eight out of 10 had won over at least 3m.
⭕ 3.30 Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 11 (Champion Hurdle)
SP: Five winning favourites in nine years. Ages: 6 and 7 seven out of 10.
Ratings: 169, 162, 157, 169, 162. Trainers: Henderson 4, Mullins 4 in the last 11 years (Ireland 6 out of 9). Eight winners out of 10 had won a Grade-1 hurdle.
⭕ 4.10 Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 10 (Mares’ Hurdle)
SP: Six favourites out of 10. Ages: no older than 7 unless previous winner.
Ratings: 150, 154, 153, 147, 142. Trainers: Willie Mullins 9 out of 11.
⭕ 4.50 Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 10 (Close Brothers novices’ handicap chase)
SP: Two favourites up but no winner shorter than 5-1, or bigger than 16-1. Ages: 6 and 7 seven out of nine. Won over at least 2m 2f (nine out of 10).
Ratings: 137, 140, 138, 137, 144, with weight carried 11st 4lb to 11st 8lb (six out of nine).
⭕ 5.30 Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 10 (NH Challenge Cup)
Fortune Cookie race of the day: in the last four years this has produced a Grand National winner, second and third in Tiger Roll, Cause Of Causes and Rathvinden.
SP: Three favourites won (2011-13) but since then three at 8-1. Ages: 7 and 8 seven out of 10. Had won over at least 3m (seven out of 10).
Trainers: Willie Mullins (2) and Gordon Elliott (3) total five wins in nine seasons. Ratings: 146, 143, 152, 150, 145. Level weights.
PARALLEL IS STRAIGHT FORWARD
2.30 Exeter David Pipe’s last seven runners: 1311711.
There could well be another winner in the pipeline with Hugo ‘N Taz here who is arguably the form pick anyway before you get the confidence boost from the trainer stats.
The nine-year-old made a winning start for his new yard at Market Rasen on Boxing Day winning by four lengths. There’s every chance he can improve again, particularly with the yard in such good form and that can offset the 8lb hike in the weights. David Noonan is in the saddle again and the going is the same soft as it was at Market Rasen.
In contrast, Fortescue looks quite harshly treated with his 4lb rise for a narrow Uttoxeter win where he had fortune on his side after the runner-up lost a shoe.
Samburu Shujaa has the assistance of Richard Johnson who bids to peg another win back in the race for the title and can be given chances on the strength of his hurdles form which was at a higher level but his recent jumping prowess over the larger obstacles hasn’t inspired much confidence.
2.50 Newcastle Epsom Des Mottes looks worth opposing here from the Kirby stable that is 1-32 and he looks high in the weights now with 12lb more than his Ayr success of January. He tried to follow up with a penalty but was beaten 27 lengths next time out.
Seapoint is also vulnerable now up in the weights after a first win in 17 attempts last time out over the longer trip here.
A more speculative play at better prices might be See Forever who likes to get her toe in and ran well in better company at Doncaster last time out after which she has been dropped a pound.
6.30 Southwell Parallel World can complete a hat-trick.
His two wins have come here at Southwell and he should be suited by the step up in trip from seven furlongs to a mile here.
He doesn’t look too harshly treated on handicap debut – especially at a track where he clearly relishes the surface.
Second favourite Masham Star is making his Fibresand debut on his 78th start !
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points)
BET 2.3pts win HUGO ‘N TAZ (2.30 Exeter)
BET 1.7pts win SEE FOREVER (2.50 Newcastle)
BET 4.8pts win (nap) PARALLEL WORLD (6.30 Southwell)
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