DAQMAN heads to the Fibresand at Southwell for his NAP on Tuesday after he is struggling to find a bet over jumps with depleted fields.
Too much racing?
Wrong kind of racing?
Wrong kind of ground?
Who knows, but for Joe Punter cards like today are hardly selling the sport. After all the abandonments recently you would have thought races would be oversubscribed – even with heavy ground.
At Wetherby today the field sizes are: 10, 8, 11, 4, 5, 5 and just 3 in the final race.
I’m heading to Southwell today and hopefully the results will be a little but more sensible than yesterday. It was shock after shock and Direct Approach winning the opener at triple figure odds on BETDAQ set the tone for an unfathomable Jumpers Bumpers card.
At least we are back to ‘normal’ Southwell racing today and it’s a track I like because it’s unique. There’s a clear edge for punters in following course specialists and it’s something I’ll use today, hopefully with profitable results.
How long it remains Fibresand though is anyone’s guess – when Southwell next replace their surface I don’t think it will be odds on to be Fibresand again. Polytrack is obviously now predominant and the Tapeta surface developed by former champion jumps trainer, Michael Dickinson, is proving popular in the States.
But for now it’s still the Southwell Sands and in the opener, the Download The Ladbrokes App Handicap, we have several course specialists lining up.
Interestingly, the field includes Conry who was the top BETDAQ positive in the market movers yesterday and finished second to Dimitar in the final race at Wolverhampton. Reappearing less than 24 hours later on a track he has failed to sparkle at in the past he has to be a lay today. He’s too big to take on in the win market so I’m trying a place lay at around 2.53. A word of caution though – it’s still three places even though the field is now seven at the time of writing. Sometimes with course specialists is not finding the ones that are but the ones that don’t handle the surface and I think Conry falls in to that category.
Mark Johnston’s debutant Turnbuckle has been backed off the boards in the maiden at 3.00. He’s nicely bred and the opposition looks moderate but surely there are better odds-on shots than this one? A classic case of no play and just watch the race.
The seller at 4.05 is probably not the most obvious port of call for the days NAP, but even allowing for the usual wealth warnings associated with this grade of race I’m struggling to look beyond Elusive Hawk.
He ticks my boxes in terms of course expertise – 5-11 over course and distance and as much as you can believe ratings at this level is very well in on his rivals. His usual style is pouncing late and he should be suited by the drop back in distance today.
DAQMAN’S BETS
PLACE LAY TO WIN 10 POINTS: CONRY (1.55 Southwell
BET: 10pts win (nap) ELUSIVE HAWK (4.05 Southwell)
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