NAP AMONG TWO OUT OF THREE: Two out of three – one winner at each of two meetings yesterday – produced a profit of 16.70 points yesterday, thanks to BETDAQ offers with the Daqman staking plan.
WON 11-4 FAERIE CUTLASS
WON evens KABRAL DU MATHAN (nap)
TODAY: Daqman sticks with the jumping action at Southwell for three bets.
VITAL ‘GOLD’ FOR NICHOLLS
No can do? Complete Unknown (2023) and Saphir Du Rheu (2015), both trained by Paul Nicholls, were recent losing favourites in the Newbury Gold Cup.
In fact, it’s 15 years since Nicholls won Saturday’s big chase, then called the Hennessy, with the Gold Cup holder, Denman.
The numerically-champion trainer badly needs the £142k winner’s prize if he is to take the earnings title against Dan Skelton (already around half a million in front) and Willie Mullins.
Nicholls has left in only Kandoo Kid, Greatwood Gold Cup runner-up on the course in the Spring before his third in the Topham Trophy.
Dan Skelton, who had the winner in 2022 with Le Milos, can run Midnight River, prominent when falling at the 14th a year ago, and Galia Des Liteaux, odds-on beaten favourite at Newbury last Christmas.
Jamie Snowden, who saddled the surprise 16-1 winner last year, now relies on Colonel Harry, who won just two small-field novice chases last winter.
But there’s likely to be money for the six-year-old Vicctorino, not seen on a racecourse since winning back-to-back Grade-3 handicap chases in November-December last year.
The attraction? Vicctorino is trained by Venetia Williams, who would love to add this prize to the £117k just won with Royal Pagaille. A quarter of a million and more in two weekends would put put Venetia right up their seeing stars!
🔟 TOP TEN trainers’ strike-rates (19 winners or more): Olly Murphy, Paul Nicholls 24%; Venetia Williams 23%; Nicky Henderson, James Owen 22%; Jennie Candish 21%; Anthony Honeyball 21%; Kim Bailey, Joe Tizzard, Dan Skelton 20%.
A SYSTEM HORSE
⭕ 1.40 Southwell Solar System should outclass his rivals but there’s enough quality in opposition to keep the price relatively sensible on the JP owned hurdler.
He handles good ground well and escapes a penalty for his latest success at Warwick which came in a conditional riders event.
Broughshane won over 2m 3f at Fontwell but then was stepped up significantly to three miles at Ffos Las last time out – he’s up again in the weights and might just struggle against the more progressive Solar System.
Asian Star has been running consistently well but has had easy opportunities and this looks harder for the mare on her handicap debut.
FAV DOESN’T LOOK ROCK SOLID
⭕ 2.40 Southwell It takes a fair degree of bravery/stupidity (* delete as appropriate after the race) to oppose a Dan Skelton trained short priced favourite at the moment but I’m not sure why his Elle Est Beau is quite so short here on the Betdaq Betting Exchange.
The mare is 0-7 over hurdles and took an unfortunate fall at Sandown in January when still very much in contention at the last. What is slightly worrying is that her two subsequent starts have been lacklustre, suggesting she might be remembering the fall?
It’s quite possible the 220 day break and first time cheekpieces will bring about a revitalisation but I don’t want to be playing at short odds to find out.
The biggest thing in her favour might end up being the paucity of opposition – especially given three fairly high profile non runners.
But I’ll take a chance with Rockola who starts life in handicapping company and brings reasonable form to the table – also benefitting from having a recent run.
Her Hereford second reads well enough and she should be suited by today’s step up in trip.
OPENING THE WINDOW
⭕ 3.10 Southwell Another race impacted by a non runner. Early Morning Dew, the forecast favourite, is out.
Most of these are looking rather exposed with the exception of Window Of Time who is likely to handle the good ground better than most and I’ll try a WIN 20 return.
Whilst she was a well beaten third of four last time she is now down a grade (but still off the same mark). A reproduction of her Ludlow third last month might well be good enough and she is preferred to Neigh Botha who switches back to the smaller obstacles.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.40 Southwell (win 10, nap)
BET 14.0pts win SOLAR SYSTEM
2.40 Southwell (win 10)
BET 3.8pts win ROCKOLA
3.10 Southwell (win 20)
BET 2.5pts win WINDOW OF TIME
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
